Average outlook continues
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 9th October)
Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow, desperate surfers east of Melbourne Friday morning and Saturday mid-late morning
OK conditions for keen surfers around Torquay early yesterday morning with 2ft of swell and a lighter W'ly wind, deteriorating through the day and poor across all other locations.
Today we've got a poor quality swell with moderate to fresh onshore winds and no real quality surfing options.
This week and next (Oct 10 – 16)
These notes will be brief as Ben's on annual leave.
More of the same tomorrow, though the onshore wind looks to be a bit weaker in strength. A moderate S/SW breeze will spoil a new S/SW groundswell that's due to peak tomorrow morning, generated by a strong polar front moving through our southern swell window.
The Surf Coast should ease from 4ft on the sets (mostly 3-4ft) with 5-6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
The swell will ease through the afternoon and drop further Friday from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 3ft to maybe 4ft to the east and winds will remain average and moderate from the E/SE, strengthening through the afternoon and evening, producing a building SE windswell.
There's a chance for more E'ly winds across both regions Friday morning, with better options on the Mornington Peninsula for keen surfers.
Strong E/SE winds through Bass Strait Friday afternoon and Saturday morning will produce a peak in SE windswell Saturday morning likely to a sloppy 3ft on the Surf Coast, 2ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula with winds poor and still fresh from the E/SE at dawn, but likely tending E/NE for a period up until midday before swinging back to the SE. While not great there should again be some OK peaky, though weak waves for keen surfers across the Mornington Peninsula.
Sunday will be cleaner with a NE breeze, though swell wise there'll be hardly anything left in the tank with a fading SE windswell on the Surf Coast from 1ft to maybe 2ft, similar in size on the Mornington Peninsula with a very long-range background W/SW groundswell.
There's no new significant swell due until later Tuesday and more so Wednesday when a long-range W/SW groundswell fills in.
The source of this swell will be a strong but distant polar low forming south-west of WA later this week, breaking down south of WA on the weekend.
A small to moderate sized swell is due, peaking Wednesday around 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, but a trough moving in from the west looks to bring onshore winds. More on this Friday.