Craig

Great run of surf and offshores to come, large next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd May)

Best Days: Surf Coast every day, beaches Thursday and Friday mornings

Recap

A secondary stronger pulse of S/SW groundswell yesterday morning to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula and with clean conditions across both coasts. The swell started to ease into the afternoon, much smaller today and back to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (May 23 – 26)

The size will continue to ease through this afternoon ahead of our new building mid-period W/SW swell tomorrow, followed by stronger and bigger levels of groundswell later in the day but more so Friday.

A broad and slow moving polar front pushing up towards WA and then slowly east towards us while weakening has generated this mix of swells. The storm is currently south of WA and SA though we'll see one final intensification on its tail, generating a fetch of slow moving W/SW gales more in our south-western swell window. This will slow the easing trend of the groundswell on Saturday as the direction swings more SW.

Tomorrow looks to start around 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with the size slowly rising towards 3ft and 5ft respectively later afternoon. Friday should see a peak in size to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 5-6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula, with Saturday coming in a similar size through the morning, easing into the afternoon.

Conditions will be great the whole period on the Surf Coast with a persistent N/NW offshore wind, while selected locations to the east will be great as well, with the beaches on the Mornington Peninsula cleanest Thursday and Friday mornings as winds have a more N'ly bias.

A new pulse of W/SW groundswell is due on Sunday, generated by a small and tight low moving in under the country tomorrow afternoon and Friday.

A very small fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will be projected towards us, weakening south of South Australia, with the swell due to peak Sunday, keeping the Surf Coast around 3ft to possibly 4ft at magnets and 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

A secondary front firing up on the back of this small low will push north of our swell window on the weekend, but move across us Sunday bringing strong W/NW winds, W'ly later afternoon.

No decent swell is due off this front at this stage, with a drop in size expected Monday from 3ft+ and 5-6ft respectively across both coasts with strengthening NW winds ahead of a much more significant cold outbreak.

A large and powerful SW groundswell event is expected through mid-next week owing to a strong and pronounced node of the Long Wave Trough developing across the south-east corner of the country. This will bring back to back cold fronts, snow to the mountains and the first proper cold outbreak for the year.

In the Southern Ocean we'll see a broad and elongated polar front projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW-S/SW winds through our swell windows for a significant amount of time, as the LWT remains slow moving. We're expected to see a large and long-period SW tending S/SW groundswell event building Tuesday and peaking Wednesday. Winds look favourable for protected spots and strong from the W/NW on Tuesday as the swell builds, less so Wednesday and from the W/SW-SW, but more on this in Friday's update.

Comments

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 10:57am

Keep it coming Craig! Has been a good run down here.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 10:58am

:)

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 11:00am

90 mile beach gonna be epic

UTFS

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 11:08am

Lorne epic.
Cue, the malburn

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 11:28am

Wouldn't call it a great run. The swell has been super inconsistent and the winds have been too N/NE. When the winds swung NW the high tides been in. Yes there's been a few good waves but a couple of pictures doesn't give the full story.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 12:25pm

Let us never speak of those pictures again.....;)

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 4:42pm

You must be looking in all the wrong places Vic Local, need to stick by me more often. lol Just kidding, I can't tell ya my spots

UTFS

ron's picture
ron's picture
ron commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 11:49am

Do you only surf spots that work best on NW? There's been plenty of consistent good days at other spots!

Swanpower's picture
Swanpower's picture
Swanpower commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 2:40pm

Spot on. Been a great run for anyone with a car!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 12:37pm

Ha, grass is always greener eh?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 12:48pm

Hey Craig are the models overcalling next weeks swell ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 12:56pm

Not really, set waves look to be what the TQ forecast has.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 2:01pm

Thanks

gasman's picture
gasman's picture
gasman commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 12:40pm

Been a great run in Vic. Take that all day long.

euchat's picture
euchat's picture
euchat commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 1:15pm

Hey Craig do you think woolamai will be double overhead by 3pm tomorrow?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 1:22pm

We don't get that specific sorry euchat, but no.

euchat's picture
euchat's picture
euchat commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 3:34pm

Thanks

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 3:37pm

Hey Craig, can you tell me the best place to surf on Saturday, the best time to go surfing, and the best board to use? Can you also let me know if it's 4/3 wettie time yet, drive me to the waves, and provide a skinny latte with almond milk?

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 3:54pm

Your negativity VL almost inspires me to give my best Mexican expat forecast for this date and time but that would not be cool :-)

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 4:50pm

VL you really are the most negative prick on here aren’t ya! We’ve had a great run of waves yet you STILL find something to whinge about. Sheeeesh

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 6:57pm

"VL you really are the most negative prick"
This is true goofyfoot, but my gig has never been about telling everyone the surf is good. Why would I do that? It just brings in the crowds. When I'm negative on the Vic forecast notes it's because people are pumping up the conditions a little too much. Nothing wrecks an inconsistent surf more than a crowd.
When the surf is pumping and it's not busy, I'm one of the most positive mother fuckers in the line up. Online? not so much.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 7:06pm

Fair call, point taken!

HKFC's picture
HKFC's picture
HKFC commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 12:12pm

You're dreaming if you think your comments downplaying the forecast are going to make ANY difference on the crowd levels. Jeeeeez that is dumb.

As for the negative attitude - Marty, is that you??

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 8:35pm

VL makes a valid point. Why talk it up on a public forum???

Plenty of sheep out there. I surfed with a few yesterday morning.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 22 May 2019 at 8:49pm

I don’t think saying that there’s been a good run of waves lately is going to make the next surf more crowded. But I could be wrong!

ron's picture
ron's picture
ron commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 9:23am

Haha now the swellnet notes comments can raise crowd levels? Noticed theres only the same 10 guys commenting in here?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 3:05pm

Ron, long range forecasts predicting good surf certainly do increase numbers in the water. There's nothing more shit-house than crowded and inconsistent surf. The Melbourne crew see one photo or read one report and descend to the coast en-mass. The last few days have been the perfect example of this migration. They've made the commitment to go surfing and will paddle out despite the fact there's not nearly enough waves for the crowd. Decent surfs get turned in to marginal surfs, and marginal surfs turn into shit surfs because of overcrowding. That's the facts.

When the forecasters miss a swell, I'd say the numbers in the water are 40-50% lower.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

ron's picture
ron's picture
ron commented Friday, 24 May 2019 at 11:07am

Yes of course forecasting impacts crowds. I was talking about the comments section.

Do you only surf bells/winki?

Ive surfed 1-2 times nearly every day the last 2 weeks and havent surfed with more than 20 people at quality points and less than 5 most times at hollow peaks. Its really not that hard.

Meanwhile, you are a contributing member on the site that provides the service you complain about.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 10:40am

I tell you what you've got me thinking about booking a flight and coming down.

Any surf over 3ft sounds v. attractive right about now.

ron's picture
ron's picture
ron commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 10:51am

Should of done it a week ago mate! How do you go in the cold?

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 1:47pm

Don't bother, later next week there will be some MNC/NC points better (well at least warmer) and probably less crowded. That's the surf coasts problem, it's right in the catchment of 4m+ people. Get a 2HR+ drive out of the Newcastle-gong catchment and happy days!!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 1:48pm

yeah we'll see.
the fetch is impressive looking but still with too much zonal component for my liking.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 11:04am

fuckikng hate it, but I'm desperate.

Seahorse's picture
Seahorse's picture
Seahorse commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 4:07pm

Point taken VL. City slickers (like me) get annoyed by crowds as much as locals do. Good waves bring crowds, period... Basically it’s better not to drive 3 hours a day up and back for slop, so it’s good to have Swellnet to give some loose guide. Who could blame us!?

We all have self-interest in having a good session. My approach as Swellnet suggests is to respect the locals once we are in the water (and before/after of course).

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Thursday, 23 May 2019 at 8:57pm

2 hr + drive out of Melbourne east or west = happy days . IMO
Vicco = happy days.

gasman's picture
gasman's picture
gasman commented Friday, 24 May 2019 at 12:04pm

Well that was absolute crap this morning. Practically unsurfable.

Am I doing it right VicLocal?