Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd August)

Best Days: Exposed beaches Thursday, both regions, Friday and Saturday mornings, Surf Coast Sunday morning

Recap

A new mid-period W/SW swell on offer yesterday morning with OK winds for protected spots on the Surf Coast, poor elsewhere. Our new spike of long-period SW groundswell kicked strongly into the afternoon reaching an easy 4-5ft on the Surf Coast with workable W/SW winds.

This morning the swell is on the ease with cleaner 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast (larger at 13th Beach) and 6ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula though with less then ideal winds. We should see the swell continuing to ease as winds tend more variable across the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This week and weekend (Aug 23 - 26)

Today's swell will continue to back off into tomorrow leaving smaller 2ft waves on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under a favourable N/NE tending E'ly breeze.

The wind outlook for Friday and Saturday is looking better for the Surf Coast now and still favourable for the Mornington Peninsula as the new pulses of W/SW groundswell fill in. With the mix of distant W/SW energy expect periods of pulsey more consistent sets followed by long lulls and little activity.

The first swell for Friday will be the least consistent, generated in our far swell window, across the southern Indian Ocean over the weekend.

The remnants of this storm broke down south-west of WA, and as a result sets will be very inconsistent but the strength of the swell is good.

We should see Surf Coast swell magnets come in at a very infrequent 3ft+ (2-3ft most other breaks) on the sets Friday with 4-6ft waves to the east along with variable (tending locally offshore) winds ahead of SE sea breezes.

The swell is expected to ease back through Saturday, but a slightly more consistent reinforcing W/SW groundswell is due to fill in, generated by a good pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales pushing through our swell window the last couple of days, in the southern and south-east Indian Ocean.

This swell should keep the Surf Coast hanging in at an inconsistent 3ft on the sets with 4-6ft sets to the east, while later in the day we may see a new S/SW groundswell.

This groundswell will be produced by a re-intensification of the W/NW fetch south-west of Tassie tomorrow afternoon, with a burst of W/SW gales forming late in our swell window into the evening.

Due to the fast movement and late development in our swell window, size will be limited, but we can expect this swell and a continuation of inconsistent W/SW groundswell in the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Coming back to the expected winds, and Saturday should see variable (likely tending locally offshore) winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes, while Sunday looks to see variable winds from the W/NW, favouring the Surf Coast.

Next week onwards (Aug 27 onwards)

Moving into early next week we'll see the weekend's W/SW groundswell easing and a surface trough/front pushing up from the south and deepening off the Gippsland coast looks to bring onshore winds and poor conditions.

Longer term the low is due to clear with some new S/SW groundswell later week, but more on this Friday.