Continuation of poor surf
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 15th November)
Best Days: No great days, if you had to choose - Sunday morning
A small inconsistent W/SW groundswell due across the coast yesterday and today has hardly poked its head, with tiny amounts of S/SE windswell being seen on the Surf Coast, while the Mornington Peninsula has hovered around an infrequent 2-3ft.
Conditions have been good for the beaches, but we're expecting an onshore change mid-late afternoon today.
This week and weekend (Nov 16 - 19)
Today's change will be linked to an approaching surface trough from the west, though the dynamics around this have changed a little.
The trough is expected to stall just a touch further west than forecast on Monday and with this, a fetch of strong S/SE winds will sit less favourably in our swell window.
A smaller S/SW windswell is expected through tomorrow, building through the day and possibly reaching 2-3ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon, similar to the east.
Winds are still looking poor though with a moderate to fresh SE tending stronger E/SE breeze into the afternoon.
These E/SE winds will generate some SE windswell later in the day on the South Coast, with both the S/SW and SE windswells expected to ease through Friday.
Fading weak 2ft waves are likely as winds tend variable from the NE, creating cleaner conditions, but only for desperate surfers.
Moving into the weekend there's no new swell due Saturday morning with a small to tiny mix of windswells and variable breezes from the east through the morning, while our slight increase in swell Sunday is still on the cards.
A distant polar low in the Heard Island region earlier this week has produced this swell, with the swell expected to arrive Saturday afternoon and peak Sunday morning to an inconsistent 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
There'll be long waits between sets due to the large distance between the source of the swell and our coasts.
Winds are looking best for the beaches with a light NE offshore before sea breezes kick in as the swell fades.
Come Monday there isn't due to be any decent swell left at all with tiny waves under morning offshore winds from the north.
Our average run of surf should take a hiatus mid-next week when a long-range moderate sized W/SW groundswell fills in, but more on this Friday.