Moderate west swell all weekend, larger early Monday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 4th August)
Best Days: Surf Coast swell magnets all weekend, early Monday Surf Coast, Tuesday Surf Coast, east of Melbourne Thursday
Fun waves across both coasts yesterday with the tricky troughy weather resulting in light winds most of the day on the Surf Coast with clean 3ft waves on the beaches, while the Mornington Peninsula offered solid 4-5ft sets.
Today the wind has shifted to the NW favouring the Surf Coast over locations to the east as a mix of inconsistent W/SW groundswell and SE windswell provided 3ft sets. Conditions should remain good all day as the swell hangs in there.
This weekend and next week (Aug 5 - 11)
Wave heights should steady into tomorrow morning as we continue to see inconsistent levels of W/SW groundswell energy across the coast. This was generate by an elongated fetch of pre-frontal W/NW winds moving in from the Indian Ocean earlier this week.
A broad post-frontal fetch has also generated some inconsistent swell for the afternoon and Sunday morning.
In general the Surf Coast should hang in around 3ft on the sets through tomorrow with 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, and an afternoon's increase in W'ly windswell isn't due to any major size any more. This is due to a front passing across us being a bit weaker than forecast Wednesday.
Our models are incorrectly combining the distant long-period energy with the W'ly windswell and over-forecasting the size into the afternoon and Sunday.
Sunday should reveal similar sized surf on both coasts most of the day, with a new strong long-period W/SW groundswell not really expected until on dark and more likely into the evening.
The frontal system linked to this swell is looking a bit stronger now, but it will move north of our swell window a little quicker.
With this in mind there's no real change to the expected size, with swell magnets on the Surf Coast due to come in around 4-5ft early Monday, easing through the day with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds over the weekend will be best for the Surf Coast with a fresh W/NW tending NW breeze, more gusty from the NW Sunday.
The timing of a change linked to the mid-latitude storm generating Monday morning's swell is crucial and it looks to be just after dawn. Ahead of the change W/NW offshores are due, with SW breezes behind it. So keep an eye on the local observations west of us for any stalling of the change and a window of good conditions across the Surf Coast.
The change will bring with it an increase in S/SW windswell for the afternoon and Tuesday with winds returning back to the W/NW.
There's no major size due with easing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Longer term there's nothing significant on the cards until later in the week/weekend when some new W/SW swell may be seen. Winds will swing to the north though favouring exposed beaches Thursday. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!