Tiny Saturday, fun from Sunday and then excellent Wednesday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 29th April)
Best Days: Exposed breaks east of Melbourne Saturday, Surf Coast Sunday onwards (experienced surfers only later Tuesday through Thursday), east of Melbourne Wednesday and Thursday
Recap
A small inconsistent W/SW groundswell provided 1-2ft sets across the Surf Coast yesterday with 3ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula. But this morning a small lift in size was seen with good 2-3ft sets at swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 4ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under very light offshore winds, creating excellent glassy conditions.
We should see this morning's pulse ease through the day (Cape Sorell is on the way down) as winds remain favourable all day.
This weekend and next week (Apr 30 – May 6)
Tiny surf is due tomorrow across the Surf Coast with inconsistent 3ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under favourable all day offshore N'ly winds again.
Our dual pulses of W/SW groundswell for Sunday morning and then later in the day/Monday are still on track with back to back polar fronts being steered up and under WA.
The first swell for Sunday morning should see good 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, with 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, with a secondary larger kick through the day to 3ft+ and 6ft+ respectively due through the day. Swell magnets on the Surf Coast will probably be offering 4ft bombs, and conditions will be best west of Melbourne with a moderate to fresh W/NW'ly, swinging W/SW through the afternoon.
A drop in size is then due through Monday likely from 3ft and 5-6ft respectively under offshore NW winds.
Now for the exciting stuff!
The storm that's set to generate Wednesday's large W/SW groundswell is one of the strongest and best looking systems I've seen in a couple of years firing up into Australia.
This progression will be linked to the Long Wave Trough which is currently moving in from the west while strengthening, with it due to stall across the Bight from Sunday.
With this we'll see a vigorous polar low forming in the Heard Island region tomorrow morning, swinging ideally and more favourably like a pendulum up through our swell window.
An initial fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds will weaken but grow in length and width as the systems projects north-east towards the south-east of the country, spanning some 3,000km.
This will result in a long-period XXL groundswell event for exposed breaks across Southern Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.
The swell will arrive from the W/SW through Bass Strait though, with mid-period energy building through Tuesday ahead of the groundswell proper Wednesday.
The Surf Coast should see large consistent 6-8ft surf across most open locations (larger 10ft bomb sets at swell magnets) at the peak of the swell Wednesday with 10-12ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. On Tuesday however we should see building surf from 3ft west of Melbourne through the morning, to 4-6ft later in the day, with sets building to 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Conditions on Tuesday will be best on the Surf Coast with fresh and gusty W/NW'y, while Wednesday looks excellent as an approaching front swings winds NW (even N/NW at times).
Due to the strength and power of this swell, it will only be for experienced surfers.
A slow easing trend is due from Thursday with reinforcing W/SW and SW swell from the vast fetch of trailing SW gales along with a secondary front producing pre-frontal W/NW gales.
The Surf Coast is expected to ease back from the 6ft range Thursday morning and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula under offshore winds (N/NW Surf Coast and N'th Mornington Peninsula).
Longer term some moderate sized SW groundswell is due into next weekend and beyond, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
The Tz at sorell isnt a concern? Maybe be the low tide at moment but swell seems rather weak and fading 2ft occasional 3ft.
Hey Nick, I've mentioned the easing trend today in the recap?
Sorry. Talking more about tomorrow and 3ft?
Ah yeah, there's a small acute W'ly swell due, hopefully 2-3ft.
If you aren't an experienced surfer how do you get permission to surf this xxl bells swell ?
Not XXL for Bells, more so exposed locations across the state.
Hopefully there are some cameras down at Easter Reef and the like or will be to wind affected down there?
The locals will help you with your cameras & photography of 50ft jeff
I'm pretty sure there will be a " welcoming committee " .....
Sorry I forgot how silly of me, the last thing the locals would want is a bunch of weekend warriors from Melbourne crowding the line up when it's 25ft... *sigh*
no dickhead ,
the last thing the locals want is images from said warriors permeating through the internet .
leave your cameras and enthusiasm at home . This is not the 50 years storm ......
Fair 'nuff.
And it might not be a century storm, or even decade storm but looks like it's gonna big pretty big, with reasonable wind for some of "those" spots, so I'd love to see some pix/vids, even if they were done as ambiguously as possible.
Not everyone has the luxury of being able to be wherever they like whenever they like. Some of us have commitments that must be fulfilled and that precludes us from seeing these events first hand. Although, that said, I'm hoping to wangle a dash down to get a session somewhere.
Actually it's not a luxury crip, it's just something some of us have worked hard for and gone without other things to achieve what we want, try living on less than half the average wage, choices mate. :)
Onya mate!...Im coming down with channel 9 news to really blow it up. See you mid meek!
When you say exposed locations, you referring to Gunna and the like?
No, west and south-west facing locations from the entrance to Bass Strait west.
Hey I know this isn't exactly related to the surf forecast ... but do winds intensify as you approach the centre of a weather system (specifically a High)? They did the other day and the isobars weren't any closer together but the synoptic system was tracking across closer to us .....
Also, 10ft bombs at swell magnets we talking Bells area as per usual ? Seems a bit surprising due to the how W swell is ....
Thanks heaps for your work, hope you can get down for some waves this week, yew
No they ease and the weather improves. If you're still on the edge of the high though you'll still experienced the winds.
And storm alignment is better and more south, so yes 10ft bombs at Bells/Winki.
Are you talking about Wednesday ?
Winds eased late because the front slid South and then wIndo washed out in the trough . Staying offshore for a lot longer thn you would expect from what you would normally happen with an approaching cold front .!
i need a new leg rope..
thanks for the updated forecast notes! fingers crossed this storm whips up sunday for us so called mexcians!
Wow this is gunna be interesting
What will Port Campbell area be like? Thinking of using a time in lieu day to do some photography.
20ft??
Not a wise place to do photography ....
Why not?
What swell period will be expected on Wednesday?
11 seconds and 20 feet
A few people here are getting all frothed at the mouth on an iffy local wind forecast that's probably a 10-15 % chance of coming off . And history tells you that 8 ft bells is going to be the chocolates in this state . There are so many components to this forecast that aren't quite right for many locations , impressive swell event . But there are other states that will do way better than here . The peak wind /fetch isn't aligned with here , more so SA or even WA after radial spread . Even SA is looking sketchy with local winds , expect these borderline winds to switch around in the next few days . And probably only be a lock 12-24 hours out , the window for anywhere exposed is going to be short and surface conditions will reflect this . So anyone thinking of rolling the dice , good luck the weather odds are against you . With such strong winds coming so close to all the coasts that will receive the most swell , it's destined to be too raw . Refraction is going to be quality surfs' friend . Enjoy blowing money on skittish model forecasts beyond 4 days out . ? Even an hours travel is an over investment , with what I've seen to date in these forecasts . When something looks too good to be true , it's often the case . Cheers
Shut the fuck up southy, let them blow their rdo's, sickies and those hard earn't brownie points to get away from family commitments. Let the sheep be herded into the pen.
Baaaaa
lol that's gold
So bells isn't going xxl ?
Nah Camel, just a really strong big swell. Don't think Bells ever gets truly XXL.
And Southey is right, wind forecasts still fluctuating heaps and windows are limited for selected regions.
Craig I think bells is going xxl , if that aint xxl then show me what is
Swell is losing half its size as it rounds Cape Otway.
XXL on the Shipwreck Coast but not at Bells.
Seems like a few of you blokes are afraid of a few visiting surfers. Be fair dinkum not have this false intimidation. Wheres the best accommodation.
Visiting surfers are okay, cameras and publicising on the internet ruins the fun for everyone
The police station . Ask for Vanda , tell them Sid sent ya !
Southey no need to get all upset by the prospect of some visiting surfers who may want to take a few photos for their personal collection.
Look forward to paddling out to the snarl of some local deadbeat who thinks he owns the joint due to a postcard. Hopefully these pretend tough guys don't get to angry with their small town intimidating attitude.
If you think there are going to be rideable waves then pity you .
There a funny bunch down that way. Carrying on and what not with there local boys stickers on their cars only for them to paddle and just be straight up kooks. Sorta reminds bullys. No self esteem (skill) so they just tell others to fuck off. The waves are hardly secret. I mean i was down there on the weekend out by myself with 100's of people taking photos from the cliff. Damn exposure.
There's a big difference between a Beachie and tourists and some other spots .
Yeah I know guys that aren't shredders . But trust me some of these guys are fearless and very capable in SOLID waves .
It's horses for courses .
You do see the irony in your post don't you , even with half of Europe & Asia overlooking you with selfy sticks , you were still surfing alone ........ Take a moment and think bout that , think Portsea back beach in the middle of summer ' and then there with maybe only a dozeb more people than the weekend . So cool aren't you !
Southey you don't need to be too worried and overly defensive mate. People are going to come and surf but due to the nature of the area it would take a while to work out where to go on any given day. Thats why me and my mates from StKilda are going to purchase a place and start going there every weekend. Hope the local watering hole is a friendly place.
Will start a blog for those interested.
I do know your trolling . ;-)
Can imagine the conversation in the carpark or line up.
Local (Southey) snarls "Where you from mate" WharfJunkie "Im from StKilda but have childhood memories of driving through PortCampbell and now have a nice weekender which me and my mates enjoy.." Local "Welcome to Port Campbell"
I understand the first part. But no so much the next.
I understand the first part. But no so much the next.
No cameras at Easter Reef eh?!? Someone better tell the locals who proudly displayed several large blown up photos of the place in the local shop. Epic photos they were too. Maybe they've been removed. That was back in 99.
Surely a surf mag/s have run spreads of Easter Reef back in the day. That seems to be the green light for excepted ongoing exposure, according to the Swellnet forums in relation to this topic anyway.....
As someone said above, if your keen for some 25ft plus waves & you can put two & two together, go for it. Take some photos too. Just be discrete who you share them with...
Its been fully highlighted heaps of times. Gash did comprehensive photo spread articles about it, and the surfers who surfed it, and that area. It, and the guys who surfed it were the centre piece of a series of very popular Rip Curl videos, along with other breaks. Some of the guys worked for the big three companies . I've met and surfed with some of those guys, they used to like travelling too. None of them are on here whining. The true local's always get whatever waves they want at their home breaks, no matter who visits. If you get that much practice at your home break, and you still can't figure the place out, maybe surfing isn't for you. You'll always get wannabe's carrying on up on the cliff, or out in the channel though. Now its even easier for them, the net is a dream come true for them. Anyone can just look at the weather map, not that hard to tell what's happening, surely?
and there ya go :)
Easter reef is a fantasy conjured up just like Summer Bay .
Better take a reef anchor , will be so windy cross onshore that you might get blown off the cliff . There is massive difference between an image in a shop and the Internet .
"There is massive difference between an image in a shop and the Internet ."
I hear ya Southey, but that horse bolted long ago apparently. Romantic notion though...
BTW, not a big fan of reef anchors unless the conditions are spot on, can be unreliable, causing a furious paddle for a drifting boat :)
Home made grapple hooks are the go with chain 1.5 x the length of your boat . :-) .
Two words , your right .... But wrong on the local status most of those guys were visitors from the surf coast or further even . Not that it matters , if people want respect from travellers to follow specific conditions of use then best people follow . Photography of surf for personal / commercial gain goes strongly against the ethos . Everything else is reluctantly accepted .
The only things getting blown out will be the surf . Your talking open ocean , if the wind swings towards cross offshore for an hour or two don't expect the surface conditions to improve in a hurry . People who know the area realise this , everyone else is just dreaming . The forecast still may change , but I doubt it . Anyway have fun .
'Two words , your right .... But wrong on the local status most of those guys were visitors from the surf coast or further even . Not that it matters'
Yeh, the guy from Newy too? Were you with them? They were all super respected there. I ran into one not long ago, still a happy guy, still surfing there. Maybe you'll give them one of the bombs off the peak?
Not to mention the string of reclusive articles, resplendent with local area stories. The articles that shied from the publicity in the articles.
Wow peaking at 15ft swell with 17 second period, that should push into some nooks and crannys.
More like 15 metres , idreaming
Maybe you're thinking what I was thinking Indo dreaming. As for photos; if you've surfed more than a few years you know the spots. I enjoy line up shots; you don't have to name them. I think two hours drive mid week and 20 footers should keep the crowds down south to the hardcore committed; almost as usual.
http://www.domain.com.au/1-47-pitcher-street-port-campbell-vic-3269-2012...
In the market for a weekender.
Only 3hrs from Melbourne with Great Waves and Friendly Locals can't go wrong.
Christ Heard island must get some swell
Artic Surf - Adam Waldie
Some swells down there we felt undergunned in a 5000 ton warship.
Yeah udo true