Good swell but onshore tomorrow, cleaner Wednesday morning
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th February)
Best Days: Tuesday morning keen surfers protected spots Surf Coast, Wednesday morning Surf Coast, possibly Friday morning Surf Coast, Sunday east of Melbourne
A limited but good window of clean conditions across both coasts Saturday morning with easing 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast and in the 4ft range on the Mornington Peninsula.
Sunday morning started smaller with an early NW breeze, with a new swell and onshore wind developing through the day, offering fun waves for keen surfers across the protected reefs west of Melbourne.
This morning a secondary better pulse of SW groundswell along with offshore winds was offering great 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast, with bumpy and average 6ft+ sets across the open beaches on the Mornington Peninsula.
This week (Feb 16 - 19)
We've had an upgrade in the size of a reinforcing SW swell due across the state tomorrow, with a relatively weak cold front moving in from the west now forming into a strong mid-latitude low under the effects of a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough.
We're now seeing a fetch of gale to near severe-gale W/SW winds being generated on an already active sea state immediately to our south-west, producing a moderate to large sized SW groundswell event for tomorrow.
The swell should peak through tomorrow morning/midday across both coasts with solid 4-5ft sets on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, but with fresh to strong SW winds.
There's a very slim chance that the Torquay region may see winds veer slightly more westerly to the W/SW, but keep your expectations low.
Wednesday will be a better bet for a morning W/NW'ly across the Surf Coast with easing 3-4ft sets and onshore average 6ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Background frontal activity will keep both coasts active into Thursday morning, likely not dropping below 3ft and 5ft+ respectively but winds look a little less ideal and from the S/SW.
Into Friday a good new pulse of SW groundswell is due from a vast but less than ideally aligned pre-frontal fetch of NW gales south-west of WA.
While looking unfavourably aligned, we should still see some radial spread off this fetch with a new SW groundswell pulse for Friday morning to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds are looking to persist from the S/SW but without much strength, and there's a slim chance for early W'ly winds on the Surf Coast, but we'll review this Wednesday.
This weekend onwards (Feb 20 onwards)
The weekend will start average with a slight drop in swell and moderate to fresh S/SE winds, while Sunday looks better with an easing SW swell and E/NE offshores for the Mornington Peninsula. Size wise we're probably looking at easing surf in the 4-5ft range but check back here Wednesday for more on this.