Dicey Thursday, good from Friday again on the Surf Coast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 25th November)

Best Days: Friday Surf Coast, Saturday morning Surf Coast, Sunday morning Surf Coast, Monday east of Melbourne


Pumping waves across the Surf Coast again yesterday between 3-5ft with favourable winds for most of the day, while the Mornington Peninsula was around 6-8ft, best in Western Port.

Today the swell has held a similar size with another pulse of SW groundswell but with morning N'ly winds opening up more options east of Melbourne and on the beaches across the Surf Coast.

Winds are now swinging back to the N/NW to NW straightening up the Torquay reefs, as shown below taken by Dean Snow.


A photo posted by Strapper Surf (@strappersurf) on

This week and weekend (Nov 26 - 29)

Tomorrow morning will be a temporary and short-lived low point in activity, with dicey and fresh to strong W/SW winds. The chance for an early W'ly around Torquay looks slim at this stage, so it might be worth taking a lay day tomorrow.

This onshore wind is linked to the final frontal system pushing into us from the west, and with this one final pulse of strong W/SW groundswell is due, mixed in with some mid-period closer-range swell.

A kick back to 3-5ft through the late afternoon is due on the Surf Coast, with 6-8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula easing from this size range Friday morning with much better conditions as winds tend W/NW-NW (favouring the Surf Coast).

Winds are only due to tend back to the W/SW mid-afternoon so there's plenty of time for two surfs.

A slow and gradual drop in swell is then due into the weekend, backing off from 3-4ft at swell magnets on the Surf Coast Saturday morning, down from 2-3ft Sunday. The Mornington Peninsula should ease from 6ft+ and 4-5ft respectively.

Winds will continue to favour the Surf Coast with a light to moderate NW'ly Saturday morning and W/NW winds Sunday morning.

Lighter more variable breezes may be seen across the Mornington Peninsula both mornings, but semi-protected breaks will be best.

Next week onwards (Nov 30 onwards)

Monday will be best on the exposed beaches to the east of Melbourne as the swell becomes tiny on the Surf Coast, with fun 3ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula under morning N/NE winds.

A small kick in swell is due Tuesday but with W/NW to W/SW winds, the Surf Coast will be the only option but only 2ft max through the afternoon.

A mix of better W/SW swells are due into Wednesday from a mid-latitude front approaching from the west, but more on this in Friday's update.


lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 2:15pm

Lorne looks like it's pumping on the cam right now.
No one out. Crazy world.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 2:22pm

Haha, that wind is looking a little too north for me, bit of cross-chop.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 3:01pm

Didn't look too bad to me.
I'm sure there's better waves close by today though, but I'm used to seeing at least someone out there when there's more than one rideable wave per hour.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 3:02pm

Yeah, is pouring through isn't it. Whole coast firing.

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 3:16pm

A nice looking CS graph. Average Hs about 5m & Hmax around 8m since Sunday morning. Looks like the trend will remain for the next few days too.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 3:18pm

Indeed, and this prolonged swell event was indentified since last Wednesday as well :)

Jan juc's picture
Jan juc's picture
Jan juc Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 5:00pm

Hey Craig with that swell for next Wednesday at this stage what is the size and wind looking like for the surf coast

Cheers mate loving the forcast notes

Average's picture
Average's picture
Average Wednesday, 25 Nov 2015 at 5:15pm

Finally the curse I brought by getting a 7"6 in September has broken. Sorry to all those who suffered for the past 2 months. Actually took it in the water for the first time today.

crip's picture
crip's picture
crip Thursday, 26 Nov 2015 at 1:04pm

Isn't that just a gorgeous photo?

And lucky me again, weekend coming up and again looking skunked - home duties this w/end and crap conditions over recent ones when I was free.
Ahh, the eternal trade-off: no money, no ties, waves aplenty, or tied down, some spare money, weekend waves and occasional forays to more exotic locales.