Craig

Small clean weekend, average next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 11th September)

Best Days: East of Melbourne all weekend (Surf Coast swell magnets Sunday morning)

Recap

A new pulse of W/SW swell due yesterday was a little behind schedule during the morning with clean 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, but the swell kicked through the day with 3ft sets pushing through as winds went light onshore west of Melbourne, providing fun surf into the afternoon.

Today the swell was easing from 2ft to occasionally 3ft across swell magnets on the Surf Coast under N'ly winds, and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with locations east of Melbourne being the pick of the coast. The swell should continue to ease through the day as winds remain offshore.

This weekend and next week (Sep 12 – 18)

Locations east of Melbourne will be the pick all weekend as the surf continues to bottom out. The Surf Coast is due to be tiny and around 1ft+ tomorrow, with a slight kick in size early Sunday to 1-2ft from a strong but unfavourably tracking front to out west-southwest today.

The Mornington Peninsula should see infrequent 3ft sets tomorrow, with 3-4ft sets Sunday morning, easing later.

Conditions tomorrow will be good for both regions with local offshore breezes (N/NE Mornington Peninsula and N/NW Surf Coast) tending variable into the afternoon, with similar but persistent winds all day Sunday.

The long-range W/SW groundswell for Monday has been downgraded even further from Wednesday with the system not really aligning well in our swell window at all, projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds towards North West WA.

We're now only due to see a very very inconsistent 1-2ft wave on the Surf Coast, more so after lunch and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula (tiny early).

Winds will be fresh to strong from the N'th through the morning, tending N/NW before lunch and then W/NW into the afternoon ahead of a late onshore change.

This change won't bring any decent swell with it, with a small inconsistent background SW groundswell likely to offer 2ft sets across swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula but with early W/NW tending SW winds.

Wednesday and then Thursday's larger SW groundswell flagged on Wednesday has been unfortunately downgraded with the polar frontal progression linked to this now not expected to develop. Instead a broad and elongated fetch of W/NW to W'ly gales are due to produce a small to moderate sized SW groundswell event for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday/Friday.

The Surf Coast should see inconsistent 3ft sets from Wednesday afternoon through the rest of the week, with 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds are looking average though with an onshore change through Wednesday, and then light lingering S'ly breeze through Thursday (possibly variable early) swinging fresh to strong E'ly through Friday. Winds may tend more E/NE into next weekend, but we'll review this again Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Tom.P's picture
Tom.P's picture
Tom.P commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 12:47pm

G'day Craig,
So is Saturday and Sunday most definitely going to be northerly winds in Mornington or is there still a slim chance winds could Change to a NW again? I know this might sound like your repeating yourself but I'm just curious.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 12:52pm

"Conditions tomorrow will be good for both regions with local offshore breezes (N/NE Mornington Peninsula and N/NW Surf Coast) tending variable into the afternoon, with similar but persistent winds all day Sunday."

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 2:06pm

Tom.P you said the same thing in Wednesday's forecast. Stop being an annoying pest and read the fucken forecast. If you don't trust what Craig's saying go to coastal watch instead

Tom.P's picture
Tom.P's picture
Tom.P commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 2:25pm

Shut up goofy foot, didn't ask for ur input PAL. Pretty sure it's Craig's job to be answering questions, which is why they have a comment section in the notes you spud.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 2:43pm

Spud, you're questioning what he's saying, making him repeat himself, as if you don't believe what he's saying! Asking him "most definitely", are you serious?! PAL

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 3:39pm

Now Tom, I don't wish to be intimidating by throwing my scuplted and muscular frame around, but it's not really good form for you to be telling me ol' mate Craig what is 'his job' any more than me telling you that it's your job to be kind of like Gary but worse at surfing, weights, and self administered spray tans.

The comments sections are for intelligent discussion, such as my insights.

Pretty sure you've got enough information to go and catch yourself a few Faceys without asking Craig to cut and paste sections of the text immediately above your question.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 4:24pm

Yeah I got to agree with goofy and Gary.g honestly Tom.P sort yourself out mate he has given you a clear explanation of what the winds are like mate there not going to to go NNW it's going to be N-NE which will make it clean and off its tits so I hope you enjoy your trip and get some barrels but just remember mate read the forecast notes properly they are pretty detailed

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 4:38pm

You no what,
I am sick and tired of blokes like you goofy, Gary the bloody gherkin and nick.F raging at people who are just asking a simple question that takes 30 seconds to respond. Yes this is only a small part of the Craig's job but there is a comment section here to ask questions even you blokes ( names Stated above) think they stupid or irrelevant. You seem like the most arrogant blokes especially you Gary the gherkin who even calls themselves that ( if it's actually your normal name I feel sorry for you ) like honestly mate fucking grow up and stop trying to been funny and a fucking hero. Nobody wants your impute it's not needed, your just some potato from Frankston who can't count to 5 surprised you can even read or write comments on this it's beyond me. Also Gary your not intimidating at all mate your probs some 5ft bloke who has no muscle and is a kayaker. Stick to rye front beach and just kayak around the beach like an absolute spud. Don't need negative blokes like you commenting and ripping into someone about asking a question so just kayak your way back to Frankston you flog. Also nick.f and goofy just chirp down seriously just simmer your comments are not needed he is just asking a question

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 5:12pm

Haha pretty funny bitching.

Some on here are to damned spoilt in regards to someone else forecasting your every move before you even get in the car and chance it or have a look.

In this day and age count yourselves very lucky for the precise forecasting that Craig and Ben toil over for hours to present to the public. Lucky for us they both are so amped with their own passion in forecasting surf to pursue a job like this.

What would happen if they produced one synoptic chart daily and no notes for everyone, then I'm sure many of you would have no idea at all. Which is a shame as living where we live for years we should have a general knowledge of the weather....! Yes?

Just look outside at the clouds everyday which could probably be a good start and go with your gut feeling.. ;-)
Peace and carves...........

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 6:10pm

Craig, can you please remove the comments section from the Victorian forecast notes.
Cheers.
From every Surfcoast, Peninsula and Phillip Island locals

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 7:36pm

Hi Sorrento,

One of Gary's skills, aside from weights and correct use of apostrophes, is knowing when not to get in an Internet stoush. Hard to believe I'm good at everything but hey!

Gary is a (very able) lover not a fighter, and Doesn't want swellnet to turn into a stab mag comment thread so he's going to bow out here.

Something to consider though: we all get a lot of value from the comments section, for different reasons. For the enjoyment of everyone how about we read the articles before asking questions and don't tell the providers of this wonderful service what their job is or isn't.

Peace out, your one and only, Gary

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 8:14pm

As I said, this is a small part of what craig and the team do which is replying to comments as I no they do so much more which I think is awesome. Plus this is the only surf website that does forecast notes, so I am not telling them what there job is and isn't, so don't no where you go that from Gary the gherkin ( lol your name is really good mate).

Something to consider though,
Your apostrophes may be good, but your commas need some work. In your last paragraph when you say " before asking questions and don't tell providers" it should actually have a comma after questions. I guess that's the education that your were taught at Frankston High, but don't worry you might still be able to make the big time. Just something to consider though obvoulsy,

Peace out, Sorrento

mikey1234's picture
mikey1234's picture
mikey1234 commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 10:55pm

Before you start worrying about correct comma usage you should know that Craig should have a capital C as it is a name. In this context know is the correct word. There should be their. Again the correct word is know, not no. Missing a T in got. Maybe you should learn to spell yourself.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 11 Sep 2015 at 8:42pm

As I've dished it out I've gotta take that, Sorrento. It tells you much about my education that I missed such a comma, I certainly can't have been educated at Oxford.

Anyway, peace to you I'm off to do some manscaping. May see you getting a few faceys at some stage. I'm kinda hard to miss.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Sunday, 13 Sep 2015 at 7:50pm

Guys it was pumping all weekend. Spring wonderland. Warm weather, groomed consistent swell, unreal banks and no summer heads. Hope everybody has a smile on their dial now. Fun in the sun.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 13 Sep 2015 at 8:17pm

Yeah today's tricky swell over-performed, pumping 4-5ft beachies all day I hear east of Melbourne!