Small clean weekend, average next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 11th September)
Best Days: East of Melbourne all weekend (Surf Coast swell magnets Sunday morning)
A new pulse of W/SW swell due yesterday was a little behind schedule during the morning with clean 2ft waves on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula, but the swell kicked through the day with 3ft sets pushing through as winds went light onshore west of Melbourne, providing fun surf into the afternoon.
Today the swell was easing from 2ft to occasionally 3ft across swell magnets on the Surf Coast under N'ly winds, and 3-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, with locations east of Melbourne being the pick of the coast. The swell should continue to ease through the day as winds remain offshore.
This weekend and next week (Sep 12 – 18)
Locations east of Melbourne will be the pick all weekend as the surf continues to bottom out. The Surf Coast is due to be tiny and around 1ft+ tomorrow, with a slight kick in size early Sunday to 1-2ft from a strong but unfavourably tracking front to out west-southwest today.
The Mornington Peninsula should see infrequent 3ft sets tomorrow, with 3-4ft sets Sunday morning, easing later.
Conditions tomorrow will be good for both regions with local offshore breezes (N/NE Mornington Peninsula and N/NW Surf Coast) tending variable into the afternoon, with similar but persistent winds all day Sunday.
The long-range W/SW groundswell for Monday has been downgraded even further from Wednesday with the system not really aligning well in our swell window at all, projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds towards North West WA.
We're now only due to see a very very inconsistent 1-2ft wave on the Surf Coast, more so after lunch and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula (tiny early).
Winds will be fresh to strong from the N'th through the morning, tending N/NW before lunch and then W/NW into the afternoon ahead of a late onshore change.
This change won't bring any decent swell with it, with a small inconsistent background SW groundswell likely to offer 2ft sets across swell magnets on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula but with early W/NW tending SW winds.
Wednesday and then Thursday's larger SW groundswell flagged on Wednesday has been unfortunately downgraded with the polar frontal progression linked to this now not expected to develop. Instead a broad and elongated fetch of W/NW to W'ly gales are due to produce a small to moderate sized SW groundswell event for Wednesday afternoon and Thursday/Friday.
The Surf Coast should see inconsistent 3ft sets from Wednesday afternoon through the rest of the week, with 5-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds are looking average though with an onshore change through Wednesday, and then light lingering S'ly breeze through Thursday (possibly variable early) swinging fresh to strong E'ly through Friday. Winds may tend more E/NE into next weekend, but we'll review this again Monday. Have a great weekend!