Craig

Fun weekend, Surf Coast through next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 4th September)

Best Days: Saturday Surf Coast, Sunday both coasts, next week Surf Coast

Recap

Poor tiny and onshore waves yesterday morning, building through the afternoon. This morning the swell was on the ease with a weaker onshore breeze but conditions were still well below average.

This weekend (Sep 5 - 6)

Tomorrow is still looking fun for the Surf Coast with a mix of new long-range and inconsistent SW groundswell with some larger and more consistent mid-period SW swell.

The Surf Coast should hang around the 3ft range all day with morning W/NW winds, swinging light to moderate onshore through the day. The Mornington Peninsula will be average and around 6ft.

Sunday will be the day to surf east of Melbourne with easing 4-5ft+ waves (2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast) under a fresh N/NE tending N'ly breeze. The beaches on the Surf Coast will provide the cleanest conditions, with winds possibly swinging N/NW later.

Monday onwards (Sep 7 – 11)

Monday's mix of long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell with some short-range W/SW swell also in the mix is also on track, with the vigorous polar frontal progression in the Indian Ocean generating the long-range swell coming in generally on forecast.

This swell should build through Monday to a very inconsistent 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast into the afternoon with 6ft to sometimes 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

The short-range will be similar in size but more consistent.

Winds are looking good all day for the Surf Coast with a fresh W/NW'ly, so there's no rush to get out early.

Tuesday is looking interesting, with a frontal system pushing through the evening Monday due to produce a reinforcing short-range W/SW swell but this only looks to produce similar sized and easing 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast through the morning with 6-8ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula.

Winds will be good and from the W/NW through the morning, swinging SW through the day.

Through the rest of the week, moderate pulses of SW groundswell are due from a flurry of strong pre-frontal activity swinging in from the Indian Ocean under the country through the weekend and next week.

The Surf Coast looks to hang around the 3ft range from Wednesday through Friday with 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula with winds from the W/NW. Friday should see winds swing more N'ly favouring the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards, but we'll review this again on Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 10:38am

Craig why is the "surf forecast" on swellnet saying everywhere around Victoria will have SW or WSW winds from 6 am on Saturday instead of saying NW winds ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 11:03am

The low resolution nature of the current model doesn't pick up the local steering effects seen by the Otway Ranges across the Surf Coast, which should swing the gradient SW'ly wind around to the W/NW through the morning.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 11:49am

Sorrento!? From sorrento??

I am the bone

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 12:28pm

Na just go down there in the holidays

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Friday, 4 Sep 2015 at 6:22pm

How's Saturday and Sunday next week looking for Mornington peninsula Craig or is it a little to far away to tell at this stage Craig

Cheers

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F commented Sunday, 6 Sep 2015 at 4:05pm

Craig,
I've got the same question as Sorrento how is Mornington penuinsula looking like next Saturday and Sunday
below 6ft?
Cheers

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F commented Sunday, 6 Sep 2015 at 4:12pm

Why are you called Sorrento ? It's not even a good surf spot you potato

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Sunday, 6 Sep 2015 at 4:32pm

Stuff you nick, you can piss off mate
Sorrento back beach is so good there is the barrel spot and then there also the reef spot which is quality aswell. Any bets your a kayaker nick.f
I say we sought this out with a fight meet me at sorrento back tomorrow at 4 pm

Stevepalace's picture
Stevepalace's picture
Stevepalace commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 8:37am

because a fight will sort out everything......

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F commented Sunday, 6 Sep 2015 at 6:15pm

Fair enough Sorrento,
I will admit I had once a really good session at the reef spot, got barrelled off my chops came out with spit it was awesome.
Have you been to the rye barrel spot it's one of the best spots in Victoria ?

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 9:45am

Yeah nick,
I have been to rye the beachbreak there on its day is nuts, absolutely barrels wowee
Love that place

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 12:05pm

Nick and Sorrento you guys are classics. So many lols ay boys.

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 12:24pm

Have you been to Sorrento goofyfoot,
If you have, Surley you agree it's quality, I think I have persuaded nick.f he agrees it barrels at the reef spot even though I suspect he is a kayaker

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 12:55pm

No I've seen it. Too full on for me

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 2:59pm

Yeah I agree Sorrento, you have persuaded me I did go once when it was absolutly off its nut, 12ft out the back reforms at about 5ft and just barrelled I was so stoked wonder if you were out there, there was like 5 other blokes out it was last winter around this time.
Then there was this other time in summer when it was like 6-8ft out the back, northerly offshore and I went to the reef spot and it was like 2-3ft sucking up like knee deep water it was so good. The barrel spot though only works when it's like 10ft or bigger out the back though Sorrento.

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 3:04pm

Goofyfoot mate how dodgy is the drop its huge then you just pull in and hopefully come out if you don't you get gangbanged by Mother Nature it's dodgy. You got to get some balls goofy and get out there mate it's not that full on mate. Come on mate

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 3:29pm

You're goin to hard for my liking mate.

Nick.F's picture
Nick.F's picture
Nick.F commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 8:07pm

I don't like you though Awks, your a genuine potato, any bets your the kayaker out at bells bowl your a disgrace.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 8:32pm

Did somebody say gangbang?

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68's picture
Rabbits68 commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 9:37pm

It would no doubt just be a let down Gary, given some of the gangbangs you would of orchestrated of the years. Maybe an opportunity for some Gary G tuition though :-)

Crystal Clear

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 9:22pm

Yeah Nick.F did think he is referring to the wave if you wipe out God this Nick bloke is a bit out of it.
You been to rye barrel spot Gary the gherkin ?

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 9:44pm

Quilty wave on a sand bank needs the right winds good Sand and nice swell for it to really get good. Remember this one day in summer last year was staying In rye at my mates house and it was about 35 degrees and 40 km northerly with about a 4 -5ft swell. We went down from the sand dunes cause his house over looks the back beach and had our boards howling offshore walking along the sand and there was still like 3ft waves coming through as we walked along the beach. Sand was so hot it was ridiculous but we kept walking until we got to rye car park. Stuck the boards in the sand got some sunscreen on and then went out it was high tide so the barrel spot wasn't working and we didn't even no the wave existed. We went to the break on the left of the barrel spot it was peaks and was a bit bumpy because of the wind but still rippable and you could go right or left so it was really good. There were some nice 4ft sets coming through even the wind was trying to squash the wave out but luckily there was enough swell and it was awesome only two other blokes out. After about 2hours being at that spot we went in for a quick break and then went back out to the same spot and caught a few more and as I went to paddle back out, I saw these two blokes like 30 metres out from the shore just searching around the lineup looking for waves ( which at this point was mostly closing out) and my mate had gone in as his eyes had gone pretty fried and he was struggling to see lots of salt water. So I just waited like 15 metres out, just watching these two blokes paddling around it was clear they were looking for something-which I later realised was a barrel. My mate come back out and we paddled over to where they were and we stayed there for about 30 minutes catching waves ( it was still closing out a bit ). And they kept paddling slowly to there right just moving along and then finally they stopped and it was on. Mid tide, the wind had just slowly disappeared and me and my good mate were just out with these blokes who were searching for a peak that wasn't closing out and they found it. The waves were breaking out the back and then reforming until they broke like 50 metres to the shore. The waves were glassy and clean as and were perfectly breaking and everyone was just pulling in to crystal coulered barrels it was a joke. There was the odd close out but now the waves were just opening up perfectly and everyone was having an asweome time. I saw these blokes just pulling in and getting pitted and flying out it was awesome, they new this place so well. This went on for about 2 hours before a storm came from across the sea and with it came a 50 kilometre southerly and it was over. Probably still my favourite surfing day ever god it was a good one

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 9:49pm

Hey Sorrento,

Whilst I'm not usually into naming secret spots on public forums such as this, I do know the spot you're talking about - I refer to it as 'Gary's'.

You may have me confused with Gary Gherkin, who is also a participant on these forums and whilst I don't know him personally I can only assume he's a deadset legend with a name like Gary; albeit he probably doesn't have as good a rig as I do.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Sorrento's picture
Sorrento's picture
Sorrento commented Monday, 7 Sep 2015 at 10:58pm

Haha very funny. Yeah don't worry it's still a secret spot not many people surf it. Not many people surf the Mornington peninsula stretch of beach. I guess it's because there isn't a bells beach over that side but Mornington still has potential some good breaks in the right conditions and you also have westernport bay on the huge days but I guess if its huge at westernport and clean then the surf coast is probably pumping

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Tuesday, 8 Sep 2015 at 7:56am

Yeah I'm a funny guy.

Felt I should sort out that little Gherkin mistake though, I wouldn't want you to think I'm assuming someone's likeness and pretending to be someone I'm not. Gary is 2 legit 2 quit.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 8 Sep 2015 at 8:43am

What a strange group of comments on this thread..