Exposed spots the pick tomorrow, better swell Sunday/Monday with deteriorating winds
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd July)
Best Days: Thursday both coasts, Friday morning east of Melbourne, Saturday for keen surfers on Surf Coast, Sunday morning Surf Coast, early Monday around Torquay for keen and experienced surfers
A fun pulse of SW groundswell came in around forecast yesterday with inconsistent but good 2ft to occasionally 3ft waves at exposed spots on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under strong N'ly winds.
The swell eased a touch into the afternoon, while this morning, the surf was effectively flat on the Surf Coast and an inconsistent and clean 2-3ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
A slight kick in W/SW swell is due this afternoon as winds tend more NW. The Surf Coast may see the surf increase to 1-2ft late, but I wouldn't count on it.
This week (Jul 23 – 24)
Tomorrow should provide more size across both coasts, but keep your expectations low west of Melbourne. A new westerly swell is due to fill in through the day, generated by a broad but relatively weak cold front pushing up and into WA the last couple days.
This should offer inconsistent 2ft sets on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula with local morning offshores across both regions, tending more NE into the afternoon.
A drop in size is due Friday leaving easing 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula with fresh to strong N/NW winds (N'ly early east of Melbourne).
This weekend onwards (Jul 25 onwards)
Our slightly better pulse of W/SW groundswell due Saturday isn't looking as good any more, with similar sized waves to Thursday due across both coasts.
Fresh NW tending stronger N/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast, but again keep your expectations low.
Sunday will be the day to surf, with a mix of better W/SW groundswell and building short-range W/SW swell as a vigorous frontal system pushes in from the west.
The Surf Coast should be around 3-4ft during the morning, pulsing towards 4-5ft+ later in the day, with the Mornington Peninsula increasing from 6ft+ to 8ft+ into the afternoon.
Fresh to strong W/NW tending W/SW winds will favour the Surf Coast and create poor conditions east of Melbourne.
A peak in size is due Monday morning out of the SW, with the strongest part of the low directing a fetch of severe-gale SW winds up towards us Sunday.
This should come in at a good 6ft across the Surf Coast with 8-10ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula early, dropping rapidly through the day and further into Tuesday.
Winds will unfortunately be fresh to strong but easing from the SW, with only a slim chance for an early W'ly around Torquay.
Tuesday looks a touch better with lighter SW winds and a W/NW'ly more than likely through the morning around Torquay.
Longer term, a small pulse of SW groundswell is due Wednesday afternoon ahead of a larger pulse of long-period SW groundswell Thursday, generated by a strong but distant polar frontal progression firing up in the Heard Island region Saturday, pushing east closer to us through early next week.
A moderate to large sized SW groundswell is on the cards at this stage with likely north-west winds, but we'll have a closer look at this on Friday.