Large swell with workable conditions, easing gradually into the weekend
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 8th June)
Best Days: Tuesday morning protected spots Surf Coast, early Wednesday Surf Coast, Thursday both coasts, Friday beaches both coasts, weekend exposed spots
A very slow weekend regarding swell consistency as pointed out on Friday, with infrequent 2ft+ waves at exposed spots on the Surf Coast Saturday, increasing a touch through the afternoon, while the Mornington Peninsula was in the 4-5ft range.
Yesterday a touch more size was seen with infrequent 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula under favourable winds.
This morning we've fallen in between swells as expected but a strong new W/SW groundswell is now on the build and we should see the Surf Coast reach 4-5ft+ on dark and 8ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds strengthen from the NW, creating tricky but clean conditions in protected spots west of Melbourne. The Cape Sorell wave buoy observations are positive, so keep an eye on your local beach and the cams for an afternoon paddle.
This week and weekend (Jun 9 – Jun 14)
This afternoon's strong kick in W/SW groundswell was generated by a vigorous frontal system to our west yesterday, but an even larger swell is due to take its place tomorrow.
The size of this swell has been downgraded a touch since Friday with the strongest winds now expected to be generated from the W/NW and not the W/SW, while also being in the severe-gale range, and not storm-force.
Still, a large and powerful W/SW groundswell will be generated for tomorrow, peaking through the mid-late morning to 6ft+ on the Surf Coast with 8ft sets at swell magnets and 10-12ft on the Mornington Peninsula.
Conditions are looking better now as well due to the weaker frontal progression, with a fresh to strong W/NW'ly due across the Surf Coast through the morning, although the surf will likely still be quite raw and not totally lined up. Winds should then swing to the W/SW into the afternoon.
Wednesday should see some large SW groundswell fill in, generated off the backside of the frontal progression pushing through tomorrow and this should keep the Surf Coast kicking around 4-6ft for most of the day (bigger early) with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Winds are less than ideal though with a S/SW breeze across most locations, although an early W/NW'ly is likely around Torquay before swinging S/SW mid-morning.
Come Thursday more variable breezes should create clean and glassy conditions as the swell continues to drop away.
Friday should be straighter east of Melbourne with a light morning N/NE breeze and reinforcing SW groundswell from a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW gales to our south-west through Wednesday and Thursday.
This should keep inconsistent 2-3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast into the afternoon with 4-6ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula, before easing into the weekend under favourable N/NE winds.
As touched on last update, longer term there's nothing too major on the cards as an upper level blocking pattern moves in from the west later this week. This should move on hopefully during the middle of the week starting the 15th, but we'll update this on Wednesday.