Slow week ahead suited to exposed breaks
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th April)
Best Days: Thursday morning east of Melbourne, Friday and Saturday exposed breaks
Clean fun 3ft waves across the Surf Coast Saturday morning with an early W/NW'ly before an onshore change started to move in around 9am, strengthening further into the afternoon.
The Mornington Peninsula was larger but bumpy with a fresher W/NW breeze.
Sunday was a write-off with a junky mix of swells and fresh onshore winds across both coasts, while today a mix of SW swells are coming in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast with clean conditions early under a W'ly breeze. The Mornington Peninsula was around 6ft and a mess with a fresh onshore wind.
This week (Apr 28 – May 1)
Today's pulse of SW swell is expected to hold a similar size into tomorrow morning before easing into the afternoon and further Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
As touched on last week though, winds will be poor and onshore from the S'th tomorrow and then lighter from the S/SE Wednesday with a period of more variable breezes possible through the morning. There is a slight chance of an early W'ly around Torquay Tuesday morning, but it won't be worth the drive from Melbourne. Come Wednesday the swell will be small and only around 2ft+ on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Into Thursday winds will finally improve for the Mornington Peninsula, swinging offshore from the NE, and a slight kick in small SW swell is due, generated by a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW winds currently to our south-west.
This should provide inconsistent 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula for most of the day, easing back into Friday morning.
Friday should be clean across both coasts as winds swing N'ly and a small long-range swell remains in the inconsistent 2ft range in the Surf Coast with 3-4ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
This weekend onwards (May 2 onwards)
Exposed breaks will be the go over the weekend as Friday's small inconsistent long-range SW groundswell eases under moderate to fresh N'ly winds ahead of a late swing to the NW.
The Surf Coast is expected to ease from an inconsistent 2ft with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Come Sunday the Surf Coast is expected to be tiny under NW tending variable winds.
Of much greater importance is the development of some better groundswell energy into next week, as a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough moves in across southern WA later this week and towards us into next week.
With this we should see a vigorous polar frontal system fire up from the Heard Island region towards WA, generating a strong but inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. We may see the remnants of this frontal system re-intensifying on our door-step early next week generating some additional short-range W/SW swell, but we'll look at this closer on Wednesday.