Craig

Slow week ahead suited to exposed breaks

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th April)

Best Days: Thursday morning east of Melbourne, Friday and Saturday exposed breaks

Recap

Clean fun 3ft waves across the Surf Coast Saturday morning with an early W/NW'ly before an onshore change started to move in around 9am, strengthening further into the afternoon.

The Mornington Peninsula was larger but bumpy with a fresher W/NW breeze.

Sunday was a write-off with a junky mix of swells and fresh onshore winds across both coasts, while today a mix of SW swells are coming in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast with clean conditions early under a W'ly breeze. The Mornington Peninsula was around 6ft and a mess with a fresh onshore wind.

This week (Apr 28 – May 1)

Today's pulse of SW swell is expected to hold a similar size into tomorrow morning before easing into the afternoon and further Wednesday and into Thursday morning.

As touched on last week though, winds will be poor and onshore from the S'th tomorrow and then lighter from the S/SE Wednesday with a period of more variable breezes possible through the morning. There is a slight chance of an early W'ly around Torquay Tuesday morning, but it won't be worth the drive from Melbourne. Come Wednesday the swell will be small and only around 2ft+ on the Surf Coast with 3-4ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Into Thursday winds will finally improve for the Mornington Peninsula, swinging offshore from the NE, and a slight kick in small SW swell is due, generated by a pre-frontal fetch of W/NW winds currently to our south-west.

This should provide inconsistent 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula for most of the day, easing back into Friday morning.

Friday should be clean across both coasts as winds swing N'ly and a small long-range swell remains in the inconsistent 2ft range in the Surf Coast with 3-4ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

This weekend onwards (May 2 onwards)

Exposed breaks will be the go over the weekend as Friday's small inconsistent long-range SW groundswell eases under moderate to fresh N'ly winds ahead of a late swing to the NW.

The Surf Coast is expected to ease from an inconsistent 2ft with 3-4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Come Sunday the Surf Coast is expected to be tiny under NW tending variable winds.

Of much greater importance is the development of some better groundswell energy into next week, as a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough moves in across southern WA later this week and towards us into next week.

With this we should see a vigorous polar frontal system fire up from the Heard Island region towards WA, generating a strong but inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Tuesday/Wednesday next week. We may see the remnants of this frontal system re-intensifying on our door-step early next week generating some additional short-range W/SW swell, but we'll look at this closer on Wednesday.

Comments

mackdog's picture
mackdog's picture
mackdog commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 12:25pm

Craig,
Can you tell me the quickest way to get from Melbourne to Port Campbell.
Me and some of my facebook friends are getting one of our mums to drive us down on Saturday.
I've heard the locals there are better blokes than the ones in Torquay and will be happy to show us where the waves are.
I'm hoping to get some sweet photos of us to share on facebook. It's going to take my Tinder game to the next level.
Oh Yeah, you haven't given exact times of winds and tides yet. Please rectify this
Cheers
MDog

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 12:43pm

^^^^^^^ for real?

I am the bone

Poodawg's picture
Poodawg's picture
Poodawg commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 12:48pm

Thank you Craig.
Your knowledge of Oceanology obviously runs deep. It's an area I would like to know more about. Can you suggest any good books or websites on the subject that could help a green-horn get to know more about swell patterns and predictions?

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 4:00pm

You're terrible Shuan......uh , I mean Muriel.

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 4:11pm

Good guess Blowin;)
Latest Avatar dog on a board etc etc, could be on to something.
I thought it might of been Ralf.....?

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 3:57pm

Yo Mackdog, quickest way would probably be a Bell Jet Ranger chopper, you can hire one at Essendon Airport for the day, dunno if it'll fit the SUP but your mini mal should fit o.k.
Yo Poodawg, have you tried UberKahuna? I think there's an App.
Just suggestin'.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 9:19pm

haha this shit is great.....

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 9:24pm

EC going nutbag on the 7 day for this one

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 9:27pm

GFS @12z around 8.6.17...;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie's picture
Wharfjunkie commented Tuesday, 28 Apr 2015 at 9:25pm

"There is a slight chance of an early W'ly around Torquay Tuesday morning, but it won't be worth the drive from Melbourne."

Cheers Craig will save my buddies and I the drive from StKilda. What time would be best to head down the Peninsula saturday and where are the best banks at the moment?

My Buddy and I have acquired a mini bus will be starting a surf tour business travelling east or west from Melbourne this weekend is a trial so we are giving a few mates a free trip will be 12 of us. If anyone spots the Van at Gunnas or Bells this weekend be sure to come and say hi.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Wednesday, 29 Apr 2015 at 10:01am

All trolling comments will be (and are being) deleted.

leckiep's picture
leckiep's picture
leckiep commented Wednesday, 29 Apr 2015 at 12:22pm

tbh I'd be more supportive of deleting the accounts of people who ask for the already-well-spelt-out report to be explained down to the last detail!

Was fun while it lasted and nobody got hurt or abused at least...

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free commented Wednesday, 29 Apr 2015 at 11:41am

nooooooo!! Well the trolling was good while it lasted.

Next week swell downgraded a little but still on!

Mick Free FIFOFOMO