Fun Surf Coast Saturday morning, poor until next Thursday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th April)
Best Days: Saturday morning on Surf Coast, early Monday around Torquay for keen surfers, east of Melbourne Thursday morning, both coasts Friday
Poor small waves most of yesterday with fresh SE winds ahead of a late kick in strong new SW groundswell.
This swell has held into this morning to forecast expectations with 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves on the Surf Coast under light offshore winds, while the Mornington Peninsula was a lumpy 6ft+ with the early light NW breeze.
This weekend (Apr 25 - 26)
Through tomorrow morning we'll fall in between swells before a good new SW groundswell arrives into the afternoon. The morning should still see 3ft sets across the Surf Coast, but it'll probably be more in the 2-3ft range, before becoming a little more consistent into the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula should hang around the 4-6ft range.
Now, winds are the tricky part. A surface trough is due to move through during the day bringing an onshore change. This only looks to be around midday though and before this we should see morning W/NW winds, favouring the Surf Coast.
Come Sunday there'll be plenty of size across both coasts as a medium sized SW swell fills in but winds will linger fresh to strong from the S/SW.
Monday onwards (Apr 25 onwards)
Poor and fresh SW winds are due to continue across most regions into Monday but the Torquay region may see an early W'ly breeze.
The swell will ease a touch from Sunday back to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but a new SW groundswell is due to build through the day, generated by a polar front developing south-west of WA today. This system won't have any major strength but should project nicely towards us kicking up a touch more size for Monday afternoon. Winds will be onshore everywhere by then in any case.
From then winds will slowly clock anti-clockwise as the swells eases with poor S'ly breezes Tuesday and S/SE winds Wednesday.
It won't be until Thursday that we see winds swing to the E/NE across the Mornington Peninsula but with only a small 3-4ft+ of swell with smaller 2ft sets on the Surf Coast.
Longer term a slightly better SW swell with N'ly winds is due Friday with some better frontal activity into the following week, but more on this Monday.
Have a great weekend!