Craig

Fun Surf Coast Saturday morning, poor until next Thursday

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th April)

Best Days: Saturday morning on Surf Coast, early Monday around Torquay for keen surfers, east of Melbourne Thursday morning, both coasts Friday

Recap

Poor small waves most of yesterday with fresh SE winds ahead of a late kick in strong new SW groundswell.

This swell has held into this morning to forecast expectations with 3ft to occasionally 4ft waves on the Surf Coast under light offshore winds, while the Mornington Peninsula was a lumpy 6ft+ with the early light NW breeze.

This weekend (Apr 25 - 26)

Through tomorrow morning we'll fall in between swells before a good new SW groundswell arrives into the afternoon. The morning should still see 3ft sets across the Surf Coast, but it'll probably be more in the 2-3ft range, before becoming a little more consistent into the afternoon. The Mornington Peninsula should hang around the 4-6ft range.

Now, winds are the tricky part. A surface trough is due to move through during the day bringing an onshore change. This only looks to be around midday though and before this we should see morning W/NW winds, favouring the Surf Coast.

Come Sunday there'll be plenty of size across both coasts as a medium sized SW swell fills in but winds will linger fresh to strong from the S/SW.

Monday onwards (Apr 25 onwards)

Poor and fresh SW winds are due to continue across most regions into Monday but the Torquay region may see an early W'ly breeze.

The swell will ease a touch from Sunday back to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but a new SW groundswell is due to build through the day, generated by a polar front developing south-west of WA today. This system won't have any major strength but should project nicely towards us kicking up a touch more size for Monday afternoon. Winds will be onshore everywhere by then in any case.

From then winds will slowly clock anti-clockwise as the swells eases with poor S'ly breezes Tuesday and S/SE winds Wednesday.

It won't be until Thursday that we see winds swing to the E/NE across the Mornington Peninsula but with only a small 3-4ft+ of swell with smaller 2ft sets on the Surf Coast.

Longer term a slightly better SW swell with N'ly winds is due Friday with some better frontal activity into the following week, but more on this Monday.

Have a great weekend!

Comments

TP1999's picture
TP1999's picture
TP1999 commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 11:29am

Hi Craig, based on what you know about the winds on the vic surf coast for tommorow, what time do you think there will be an onshore change? Cheers.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 11:32am

Haha, um I made extra effort to put a time 'midday' here..

"A surface trough is due to move through during the day bringing an onshore change. This only looks to be around midday though and before this we should see morning W/NW winds, favouring the Surf Coast."

thomas11's picture
thomas11's picture
thomas11 commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 11:35am

Thanks for the update Craig, you guys do an awesome job here.
Was a little nervous about tomorrow as the other weather sites i look at all have S winds tomorrow morning (seabreeze,Magicseaweed, Baywinds).
Being in Melb its a long drive for a hopefully.
Looks like an early morning rise is on the cards afterall.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 11:40am

No worries Thomas and thanks.

It is really tricky though and sometimes these troughs have minds of their own.

It could come in earlier, but hopefully not!

Check the local winds observations and cams early before you leave.

thomas11's picture
thomas11's picture
thomas11 commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 1:42pm

Will do Craig, the cams will be black when I wake but ill definietly check the local winds.
Fingers crossed it lingers so I can get a few hours of clean

TP1999's picture
TP1999's picture
TP1999 commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 11:51am

Cheers Craig mate, keep it up champos

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 12:05pm

In any case the earlier the better as by 10am we could see the change moving through, so don't dawdle :)

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 2:45pm

Hi Crag, What time do you predict low tide at Bells Boil on Saturday morning?

carpetman's picture
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carpetman commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 3:16pm

;-)

Hi Craig, Can you forecast what time my weetbix will get soggy?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 4:07pm

Haha, good work guys!

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 8:20pm

All good Crag, Couch says low is at 8:30. Just in time for the 8:37 set at the Boil.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 4:40pm

Latest updates are in and GFS isn't looking good, change in at 7am.

The hi-res BOM 3-Day model though has it staying offshore until 10am, and I'm going with this.

Take home message is still go the early surf.

TP1999's picture
TP1999's picture
TP1999 commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 5:05pm

Rowdy craigos

Frenchy's picture
Frenchy's picture
Frenchy commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 5:11pm

Hi Craig
When the onshore change comes in at 10 am how strong will the onshore winds be ?, and is there a chance that the model could change back to it be offshore till midday?.
Thanks

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 5:15pm

Pretty strong, enough to ruin the surf quickly, 15-20kts.

And I woudn't plan on surfing too much past 10am. This close the models would be getting more accurate.

It's a really tricky system, so we'll just have to hope it holds off until around 10am.

Sarge84's picture
Sarge84's picture
Sarge84 commented Friday, 24 Apr 2015 at 9:37pm

Was just checking the BOM site, and there looks like there will be a pre-dawn frontal system that will impact on Torquay, closing all roads except those between the Point Danger Dawn Service and the Jan Juc to Bells area. The Point Cook Maccas looks like it will be completely isolated from the North and South.
Honestly - if you want to get up early tomorrow; It is ANZAC Day. There is something on close to home.
Looks like there will be better conditions next weekend anyway. (Unless 2 foot is your limit)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 6:09am

Winds are NW at Aireys Inlet and Cape Otway, so we've got at least a couple of hours of clean conditions ahead. Winds are light SSE at King Island (having been variable overnight) which is probably the best AWS to monitor in the short term.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 7:37am

Looking pretty fun on the Torquay surfcam (the reefs surrounding Bells would be a little bigger than this).

All of the above dialogue certainly highlights the benefits of Craig's forecast notes compared to replying just on model guidance.

RichyM152's picture
RichyM152's picture
RichyM152 commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 8:07am

The only thing highlighted in the above dialogue is that Melbourne surfers are like sheep and cannot think for themselves. Nor duck dive.

OHV500's picture
OHV500's picture
OHV500 commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 4:22pm

Hey Richy - piss off.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 9:11am

Winds went light SW at Aireys Inlet at 8am and Point Lonsdale around 8:20am (South Channel Island has slowly backed from the NW all morning, and finally went SW at 9am).

Doesn't look to strong on the Torquay cam - just 10kts at Aireys ten minutes ago, gusting 15kts - but the window of clean surf is definitely over. Hope y'all got some! 

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 7:05pm

Hey Craig and Ben,

Thanks heaps for you updated and well advised forecast for this morning. Was able to get some good waves at winkis this morning before the wind came up like you guys said it would. Was my first time using my go pro so pretty excited to have some clean waves to try it out in...even got a barrel! Yeew. Do you know when the winds are going to be good again, I'm really wanting to get a helmet mount for my camera so I can get some good barrel video. Would winkis or beacons be the best spot to try that?

Thanks again for your good work, makes coming down so much more worth it.

Cheers lads
Ralf

danef's picture
danef's picture
danef commented Saturday, 25 Apr 2015 at 9:24pm

All jokes aside, Richy has a point.
This thread is ridiculous.
Appreciate what you guys do here but seriously, if you are going to take up surfing then learn about the weather and locations and when they work or at the very least know what's out there in terms of indicators and where to find them. take a bloody punt on conditions based on what you've worked out for yourself...

it's not hard and it's half the fun and skill of going surfing.

not to rant further but if you can't work out when the next offshore day will be, or which spot out of beacon or winki will give you the best chance of a decent barrel worthy of purchasing gopro gear then I reckon you're probably not going to get barrelled and perhaps you should be surfing somewhere else..

caml's picture
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caml commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 12:29am

Swellnet surf academy !

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 9:03am

I think its a great thread.

I mean its all good and well for the locals who only have to drive 10min to check the waves, and thats so good for them. I was doing some research on wikipedia on how to learn to read the weather maps and swell charts and there was something about local weather influences that means that there can be things occurring that will make the winds blow in a different direction than other areas. I don't understand this yet so having people like Craigs and Ben who clearly know more about these things than I or probably most people do, being able to give us all advice is a good thing.

And having their knowledge about winds why shouldn't they be able to advise people on the the best spots to surf to get barrles. I mean, if I'm going to commit a day to get waves, its awesome to know where to go straight away. And we all want to get barrels, I mean did you hear the guys on the WSL team this last 2 weeks when the box was going off. They were all saying that getting barrels is the ultimate thing in surfing and thats what I want to be doing all the time. And the go pro makes it so good for knowing if your in the barrel or not as I'm finding out its that its harder than it looks. I looked at the footage from yesterday morning and I thought I was getting in the barrel but I was still in front of the curl. The guy behind me was getting a good barrel though. I was just able to watch his technique when I played the clip back in slow motion before he fell off which will be super helpful.

Anyway, I think Craigs and Ben are doing a top job and information about which waves are good and even showing us on the camera is proof that they are running a good interactive website.

Ralf

mackdog's picture
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mackdog commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 10:23am

"The guy behind me was getting a good barrel though. I was just able to watch his technique when I played the clip back in slow motion before he fell off which will be super helpful."

Haha- nice one Ralf. You win at surfing. Once you master getting sick kegs try a roundhouse-float.
Just make sure the wind is offshore.

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 11:12am

Cheers Mackdog! I think we all win if we are surfers! It's the best sport ever!

What's a roundhouse float? I haven't heard of that manoeuvre before? Is it a kind of air? Listening to the WSL webcast and all those guys seemed to think that its better if the wind is onshore to do airs. I haven't learned how to do airs yet. Probably need lots more practise.

Hope you got good waves this weekend too, yeeew!

Ralf

Fairy Nuff's picture
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Fairy Nuff commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 11:51am

Surely this is all a wind up? And I'm enjoyin it. Come in spinner(s). Good work Ralf.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 9:15am

You so haole you don't even know you haole.....not that there's anything wrong with that.

Ralf - it's not really the done thing to ask where it's going to be barrelling as then everyone will turn up and there won't be enough barrels to go around.

And by saying it's not the done thing, I was being polite.

Hope you get some though.

When you get a barrel, you'll know about it mate.

Ralf's picture
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Ralf commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 9:26am

Hey Blowin,

Thats some good advice there. I never thought of that but the other day there were lots of barrels at winkis so maybe I'll just ask Craigs and Ben advice on when winkis will be good.

I just looked up in my surf gingo lingo book and it didn't say what a 'haole' was. What is that haha?

It have overheard people talking about what a 'blowin' is and I'm guessing that its a person like me who has to drive a little bit to get to the waves. Are you from up in the big city too? Be good to find a few surfing buddies from up here to go surfing with.

Cheers for the advice

Ralf

hangingtomatoes's picture
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hangingtomatoes commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 10:28am

I bought a jeep.

leckiep's picture
leckiep's picture
leckiep commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 10:34am

Ralf has absolutely won this forum. That's some A-Grade trolling right there.

Seriously though. If people can't read between the lines using the incredible forecasting resources on this site and a little knowledge & experience, I doubt they'll be challenging for sets anywhere decent even if they're making up the numbers in the water.

Mike747's picture
Mike747's picture
Mike747 commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 1:12pm

Hi Craig,

Just wanted to seek your advice on an incident yesterday at one of the Torquay reefs (don't worry guys I won't name specific spots). I'd just paddled around the button to uppers and stroked into a bomb. It was clearly my turn; I had just got out and everyone else had already been surfing for a couple of hours, I even had dry hair still. Anyway, I took off and someone dropped in on me causing me to nose pick and take a wipe. When I told him I wasn't happy and to have some manners he told me to "Go home and stick to lawn bowels".

Is there some sort of judiciary or governing body that I can take this issue to? I feel like he should be banned from surfing for one round or something.

Maybe you guys could set up some sort of data base on your website similar to the AFL tribunal where surfies accrue points for misdemeanours such as this. When guys reach a predetermined number of points they incur some sort of penalty, like picking up ten bits of rubbish from the carpark or taking photos of everyone else for an hour.

Thoughts???

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 2:52pm

Hi Mike747

Yeah how crowded was it yesterday at winkis!

Have you ever tried paddling off the beach at winkis instead of bells beach? Its good because you can just drift down the break a little bit and I find it pretty easy. Its good but you need to be able to duck dive lots. I used to paddle from bells beach around the rocks but then your at the top of the break and its really hard to get a wave there. Sheesh, some of the guys who get waves from there are really good. And if your down the line up you can watch them which is so sick, especially when they get barrels and do big turns.

Hope this helps you out for next time!

Ralf

maddogmorley's picture
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maddogmorley commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 3:04pm

So you had only just got out the back and figured it was your turn straightway? Bahahahaha..... geez I hate it when people do that.

mick-free's picture
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mick-free commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 1:15pm

Ralf there is a new sport taking the East Coast by storm. It's called Supping or Paddle Surfing. Here's a great link for you

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-7rDavdJGs

I took a friend down and he dominated the lineup at Bells. I don't think they had really seen anything of its kind since that trip. It's a great way to find new buddies to go surfing with and meet the locals. Plus its an easy paddle out and you can really get all the waves. I reckon you could be on to a winner here. The gopro shots are even better with such a big board.

Mick Free FIFOFOMO

leckiep's picture
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leckiep commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 2:11pm

Great Idea Mick-Free.

I saw some videos of guys up at Kirra using jetskis to tow them and their mates back to the top of the lineup so they didn't have to paddle against the sweep. All those SUP websites seem to suggest you'll get soo shredded (bro) from doing it but I bet it's tiring catching all those waves.

Maybe Ralf can SUP while Mike747 mans the jet ski to tow him back to the top of the point between waves.

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 2:34pm

Hey Mick-Free

Where I'm from (a town called Petoskey, Lake Michigan in the good ol US of A) we used to use the SUP's all the time. Was a great way to keep fit and I learned heaps about how to balance. But I think it would be scary using one of those huge boards in the surf. I was at Torquay Point once over summer and a guy fell off and his SUP board almost hit me. He was so outta control.

But thanks for the advice, its cool to know there are heaps of people out there with different ideas on boards and stuff. I'm thinking of getting one of those Al Merrick DFR surfboards. They felt really good when I had a look at them the other day in the quiksilver store. The guys in the shop are super helpful and friendly too. Maybe I'll wait till I'm an old guy before I get myself a SUP haha. Then I'd be happy going out when its only tiny.

Be epic getting a jet ski one day like Leckiep said haha. How sick would that be not having to paddle back all the time when its big!

brutus's picture
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brutus commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 3:29pm

we are actually trying to ban paddle surfing at Bells and Winki...so we can tow in or do stepoffs......there is even a submission on the new Coasta master Plan for Bells , that all residents here of more that 25 years have priority on all waves and if there are more than 20 guys out.....only 3228 residents can surf...

this is an economic ploy to try and get more people living in Torquay .....who pay rates ......and who have jet skis...the future has never been so ....???

Ralf's picture
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Ralf commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 4:07pm

G'day Brutus,

Is that true that there are people out there who want to ban normal surfing at winkis and bells?

Shit that's so crap. Bloody politicians!

But it would be so hard for them to police it. I mean, I've been down surfing a few times and its been crap and I don't think there were many locals in the water. So if that Coasta master Plan for Bells was to work, how would they run it if there are no locals out? Would it be like a thing where they just use the next closest post code and then so on and so on? So like if someone lived in Point Cook they would get priority over someone who lives in Fitzroy? That would get super confusing.

Maybe they could do something like they do when you go skiing and you buy a pass or something like that...still all the money would go to the bloody politicians and not back into the community.

Still its food for thought and I hope it never happnes

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 4:10pm

You just went full retard.

Ralf's picture
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Ralf commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 4:35pm

Hey, there is no need to be rude!

I'll admit you guys probably all surf better than I do and I certainly don't know as much as you all do. But some of the ski resorts back home charge less for lift tickets if you are a local so I kinda figured that maybe what Brutus was saying was along the same lines of how they work.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 4:54pm

Yeah sorry mate, I thought you were perpetuating some all time piss taking.

I'm still secretly praying that you're some kind of Victorian Lloyd Christmas.

Alas, if it's not so then.....good luck on your barrel hunt.

BTW. If you're close, but not in the barrel, it's known as a Shooter Mcgavin ie you're shooting the curl.

Of course it's not an official term till Joe Turpel wrings the life out of it.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 3:49pm

This is officially my favourite thread ever.

Mike 747, Ralf, Leckiep, Brutus, Mick free , Maddog , Macdog and Hangingtomatoes please all take a bow.

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 8:37pm

I've got a fair idea who Ralf is and it's not really Ralf;)

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

adam12's picture
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adam12 commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 7:26pm

Yo Ralf, next time you go chasin' the winkis barrels you should look at maybe mounting your smartphone to the gopro mount and that way you can stay in contact with craig re: the winds and sets, and also get some selfies with the guys at uppers to update your facebook and twitter, all from the winkis lineup.
Just thinkin'.

caml's picture
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caml commented Sunday, 26 Apr 2015 at 10:12pm

Wheres shaun mcmorris lately ? Or uplift perhaps

wellymon's picture
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wellymon commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 10:36am

Banned....?
Maybe all three are now Ralf!

Our brains are too small at the moment to comprehend the reality of what's happening in our forests . We're only just waking up so to speak . The big problem is we think we know everything, we are specks of dust on a timeline and we know nothing .

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 8:26am

Hey Ralf what time were you out there mate? My Buddies and I saw Craig's forecast put our retro boards on the roof and made the drive from StKilda to get out glide on at Winki.

Was heaps of fun had a few party waves with the local contingent cheering me on from behind. All was going well until a rogue set wave came through and we had to bail to get under it, some selfish arse hole got tangled up with my board then had the audacity to tell me I was dangerous and try and send me in.

Someone told me to fuck off back to Melbourne when it happened again think they were just jealous that we were carving it up and those local kooks could hardly get a wave although my Dad got a few extras on his SUP being able to take off deeper than the local kooks.

Locals on the Victorian coast need realise us Melbournians only get a few chances to get out and shred and guy's like Craig make it more efficient for us.

We keep the economy running during the week then on the weekend after our surf go to the trendiest cafe in town for a Soy latte helping out the locals.

Thanks Craig keep the forecasting up.

P.S. Thanks to the guy's who requested a wind change time should be a regular feature.

Ralf's picture
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Ralf commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 9:40am

Adam 12 and Wharfjunkie,

I may not be the best surfer in the world and I don't think I'll ever be good enough to go in competitions but I'm no fool. I don't appreciate you trying to bait me or get me to comment back to the stupid things you are saying. There are some nice people out there who have interesting and helpful things to say, but your not. I hope the next time your surfing a set wave lands on your head and breaks your board.

Wharfjunkie's picture
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Wharfjunkie commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 4:05pm

Ralf mate was being serious sorry if I hurt your feelings. Can't wait till next weekend hope theres plenty of waves for all.

Craig's picture
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Craig commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 10:17am

Thanks for the laugh guys! Next barreling set at Winki in 3 minutes, out there!

thomas11's picture
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thomas11 commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 10:42am

Awesome, thanks craig.
Ill put my rip curl GPS watch on and tweet how many seconds of barrel time for you all.

Follow me
@GPSwearingHyptoRidingCityfolk

caml's picture
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caml commented Monday, 27 Apr 2015 at 10:50am

How bout a few speling mistakes surely it just doesnt seem right