Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 8th October)

Best Days: Thursday Surf Coast, Friday both coasts, Saturday morning for keen surfers Surf Coast, Sunday morning both coasts

Recap

Yesterday started off average with a small bumpy 2ft of swell on the Surf Coast and larger messier waves to the east. A close-range increase in W/SW swell was seen through the day though to 3ft around Torquay and 3-4ft at 13th Beach as winds tended W/SW creating OK bumpy waves for keen surfers.

Today a stronger W/SW groundswell has filled in with good clean 3ft waves across the Surf Coast while the Mornington Peninsula is larger and in the 6ft range but poor with the W/NW breeze.

This week (Oct 9 - 10)

Today's lift in moderate sized W/SW groundswell should be reinforced by a secondary pulse through tomorrow, keeping the Surf Coast ticking in the 3ft range with 6ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula. These swells have been generated by a couple of strong mid-latitude fronts pushing in under the country the last day or so, and one more is now dipping south-east from the Bight, generating a smaller W/SW swell for Friday.

This swell is expected to offer much size above 2-3ft Friday morning on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula before easing through the day.

Now, winds tomorrow will be great for the Surf Coast and offshore from the NW (possibly N/NW on the Mornington Peninsula) before weak onshores develop through the mid-late afternoon. Friday looks great across both coasts with light local offshores and ahead of weak SW breezes into the mid-late afternoon again.

This weekend onwards (Oct 11 onwards)

Saturday will become a low point in activity with smaller but clean leftover waves on the Surf Coast with a morning offshore W/NW breeze.

Now, the large SW groundswell event due Sunday and Monday is still on track, but winds are moving all over the shop because the models are struggling to resolve a surface trough moving in from the west over the weekend.

The system does look to stall a little to our west now which would result in N'ly winds through Sunday morning (even NE if it stalls as long as GFS was indicating this morning) but I feel we'll see a fresh W/SW change move through the day/afternoon at some stage with poor S/SW winds then due into Monday.

Coming back to the swell though, a strong node (peak) of the Long Wave Trough moving through later this week will steer a couple of vigorous polar fronts through our south-western swell window through the coming days and into the start of the weekend.

A large SW groundswell should result, building through Sunday, peaking overnight before easing into Monday as large levels of SW windswell fill in.

Size wise we should see the Surf Coast build from 3-4ft Sunday morning to 4-6ft later in the day, but by this time winds are likely to have gone onshore. The Mornington Peninsula should build to 8ft+ and then ease through Monday.

This will all have to be reviewed on Friday though when the models should come fully into alignment, but in the meantime keep an eye on the 6 hourly forecast updates on the site for an idea on which way the models are tending and when the onshore change will hit.