Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 14th May)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller E swell and light winds Thurs
• Slight kick in E swell Fri with more light winds
• Last day of small clean E swell and light winds Sat
• Sizey mix of S swells likely Sun fresh/strong S swells
• Fun S swells in the mix next week but possibly overshadowed by much stronger local swells
• Dynamic outlook next week with prospects for low pressure development and sizey surf increasing in Tasman- check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Generally fun waves since Mon with E-E/NE'ly swells hovering in the 3-4ft range yesterday, down a notch today and light winds. Plenty of quality waves on the beachies.

Another day of quality beachies 

This week (May 14-16)

Weak pressure gradients are now over NSW, as the synoptic pattern takes a pause in between dominant high pressure systems. A coastal trough linked to tropical moisture continues the La Niña wet signal this week, now looking to form a small closed low off the Hunter tomorrow before being captured by a cold front this weekend. We’ll see unstable, variable winds through the rest of this week before the front and next dominant high bring a new strong S-SE surge over the weekend. Polar lows tied to the front bring some longer period S swell during this period. Next week still looks dynamic with potential for a deep trough or low in the Tasman, although we are going to have to play it day by day due to poor model to model and run to run consistency. Read on details. 

In the short run we’ll see light winds again tomorrow morning, likely W through W/SW. The trough does look to form a small circulation somewhere between the MNC and Upper Hunter although the whole trough line is unstable so variable winds anywhere along it are possible. 

Most models suggest a light SE flow at some point tomorrow. As noted Mon, Thurs looks to be a low point but still offering fun sized 2 occ. 3ft surf from the E.

A last little longer period pulse from the E spells the end of the current run of swell from the dominant high and subsequent trade fetch. In this instance, a nice little intensification from a tropical low sitting atop the trade fetch early this week. Expect some slow and inconsistent patches but sets in the 3ft range with the occ. bigger 4ft set should provide fun waves for the patient. We may also see a small boost in local E/NE swell from winds feeding into the trough off the MNC. Less confidence in that but if there some 2ft waves filling in the gaps, that will be the source. Light winds again, with a variable offshore flow tending to a variable SW-SE flow. It should be clean most of the day, possibly even staying light offshore for the entire day depending on where the weak trough of low pressure ends up.

This weekend (May17-18)

Bit more clarity on the timing of the next dynamic event to unfold, but expect further revisions on Fri.

Basically Sat now looks more benign with light winds through the morning at least as the small trough of low pressure moves away, a strong front weakens as it approaches the Tasman and a dominant high in the Bight moves a little more slowly. Light morning W-SW breezes should tend light/mod S through S/SE during the day. Last day of clean, fun E swell to 2-3ft so get it before it’s gone. 

Sunday sees the start of a dynamic event now. The dominant high ridges in, remnants of the cold front join the trough of low pressure with a developing fresh/strong S/SW-S flow which tends more S-S/SE through the day. Early doors may see some cleanish fun waves to 3ft, with a rapid spike in new short range S swell expected to build to 5-6ft during the day, bigger at more exposed S facing coasts. 

Next week (May 19 onwards)

Expect lots of revisions on Fri as we get clarity on the upcoming week. 

The gist of it is a deep trough forming in the Tasman, potentially a surface low or variant of ECL. 

Currently the European model is most bullish on this outcome, with the trough/low deepening o/night Sun into Mon and gales aimed at the NSW Central Coast through Mon. This would see a wild stormy day Mon with L-XL surf developing Mon and remaining elevated with onshore winds Tues before easing Wed into Thurs with improving winds. There’d be a sweet spot just north of the low centre with large surf and offshore winds.

GFS has a much more subdued outlook with the trough deepening but moving away rapidly through the Tasman before setting up shop near the North Island and aiming up a fetch of E’ly winds towards the Eastern seaboard. 

Under that scenario we’d see the initial blast of S swell Sun on an easing trend through Mon with easing winds Tues as high pressure moves over Southern NSW. A couple of small clean days then a nice uptick in E’ly swell later next week, depending on how the trough/low behaves. 

So much model divergence leads to low confidence in outcomes so pencil in a wide range of possible outcomes. Might need to wax up a 7’6” or you might be riding small fun beachies on a short board. 

We’ll also see some fun longer period S swell in the mix Mon, easing Tues, which we’ll discuss on Fri depending on what fires up in the Tasman.

We’ll come back Wed and see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!