Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 30th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Solid, chunky S-S/SE swells Thurs with fresh/strong S’ly winds
• Muscular blend of swells continues Fri but down from Thurs with easing winds
• Fun blend over the weekend with light winds
• Small to start next week, with potential from the E as the week goes on- check back Fri for latest updates

Recap

Yesterday saw some really fun surf with clean conditions and a mix of S/SE-SE-E/SE swells still holding in the 3-4ft range with occ. bigger sets. Winy conditions have redeveloped today with fresh S’lies blowing from daybreak and a messy 3-4ft of S-SE swell on tap. There’s a few waves available at more sheltered spots.

Lovely clean options early

This week (Apr 28-May 2)

We’re seeing a ramp up in strong S’ly winds along the eastern seaboard as a dominant high (1035hPa) moves through the eastern Bight towards Tasmania with a trough on it’s leading edge moving northwards. Remnants of a low on the weekend are also sitting near New Zealand with swell generating fetches off the South Island and emerging from Cook Strait into the eastern Tasman. Vigorous S’lies and swells from the proximate and New Zealand fetches keep surf zones active into the end of the week with local winds easing into the weekend. 

In the short run we’ll see a fresh/strong S’ly flow tomorrow, tending S/SE-SE through the day. Early winds may have a touch of W in them (SW-S/SW) but you’ll need to seek wind protection for the most part. Plenty of S-S/SE swell in the water, mostly short/mid period local swell in the 6ft+ range (bigger 8ft or so on the Hunter) and smaller into more sheltered locations. 

By Friday we’ll see a slow relaxation in pressure gradients although S-SE winds will still get up quickly and reach mod paces though the day. Better odds of a brief morning land breeze, especially north of the Harbour. Size will come down from the peak as short range swells relax a notch but we should see wave quality improve as wave length draws out and swell direction comes around a little more SE. Size in the 4-5ft range eases slowly through the day with smaller surf into more sheltered locations. 

This weekend (May3-4)

Better winds for the weekend as high pressure moves into the Tasman and pressure gradients relax across Central/Southern NSW. 

Light morning land breezes linger before winds shift to light SE-E breezes in the a’noon. A fun blend of SE-E/SE swells offers up 3-4ft of surf across most beaches, just slowly backing down through the a’noon.

More lovely conditions for Sun morning but with the Tasman quietening down we’ll see surf easing off more significantly through Sun. Still some really fun 2-3ft surf around along with traces of longer period S swell wrap offering potential for 3ft sets at S facing beaches. By the a’noon winds should tend to light NE seabreezes, favouring S facing beaches and reefs.

Next week (May 5 onwards)

Swells will favour the sub-tropics next week as a dominant high tracks towards New Zealand and sets up a robust E’ly tradewind fetch through the Coral Sea and South Pacific, encroaching on the northern Tasman Sea at times.

That will see small surf through temperate NSW next week, hovering around the 2ft range to start through Mon and Tues and potentially building a notch through the latter part of the week. 

Winds do look good though, with a small high cell expected to drift across the Northern Tablelands early next week bringing a light synoptic W’ly to NW’ly flow through Tues, washing out to NW-N winds Wed as a weak front decays as it enters the Tasman. Another high moving through the Bight looks to bring a S’ly change later next week.

We may see some more significant action from the E into the medium term if an E’ly dip expected to form SE of New Caledonia next week forms a surface low and tracks southwards into the Tasman Sea. 

Models are still flip flopping around on that prospect, with some runs suggesting the trade fetch contracts eastwards before another SE surge later next week as the new high pressure builds in a firm ridge.

We’ll see how it’s shaping up on Fri.

Seeya then!