Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 14th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small E/NE swell carries through most of this week as a background signal
• Building short range SE swell Tues/Wed with mod/fresh S’ly winds (lighter SW inshore early)
• Flukey long period S swell shows later Wed, peaks Thurs (may be lost as “noise” amongst much stronger swells)
• Low point Thurs but still fun waves with lighter winds
• Pumping E/SE swell now likely for Good Friday, easing a notch Sat with light winds both days
• Easing swells Sun
• Uncertain outlook next week but S swell likely early next week- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

A few fun options across the weekend with Sat seeing a blend of small leftover S swell and some building E/NE swell in the a’noon under light winds. Sun had a little more juice with E/NE swell to 2-3ft and small levels of S swell providing some back-up energy to 2ft or so at S facing beaches. Today we’ve got some really fun waves on hand with E/NE swell perking up a notch to 3ft under light land breezes and some small S swell still in the mix. All offering up a nice autumn day of surf. Much more action ahead as we head into the Easter weekend- read on for details. 

Nice lines out of the E/NE this morning

This week (Apr 14-18)

We’ve got a very dynamic week ahead, anchored by very strong high pressure moving into the far-southern Tasman and acting as anvil for a deep low which is expected to form in the tropical South Pacific between New Caledonia and Vanuatu o/night into tomorrow before drifting SW into the Tasman as a deep, extra-tropical low pressure system. This system intensifies through the week and is now expected to generate a large E’ly quadrant swell for the Eastern Seaboard heading into and over the Easter weekend. There’ll be plenty of swell from the lead-up work as well. 

In the short run we’ll see a trough/front in advance of the new high move NE off the NSW South Coast o/night into tomorrow, aiming up a tidy fetch at Southern/Central NSW. That will see building levels of S/SE-SE swell through the day, likely from 3ft early into the 4 occ. 5ft range by close of play. Also in the mix will be E/NE swell to 3ft filtering down from the more northerly fetch. That may need up being more significant as S’ly winds will be mod/fresh and sheltered spots will be more open to the E/NE swell. Early winds are likely to have some SW component before shifting mod/fresh S through SE.

More of the same chunky mix of SE and E-E/NE swells on Wed, up a notch into the 4-5ft range with a chance of bigger sets. Coastal pressure gradients do relax through Wed as the dominant high moves away from the coast so we’ll see lighter winds with morning SW breezes tending to light/mod S’lies through the day. Some wind protection will be needed in the a’noon but the morning winds with a W’ly component should open up a wider range of spots. There is a deep polar low with an off-axis but very strong, broad fetch which should send some long period S swell wrap in showing Wed PM in the 2-3ft range. Local winds will make it hard to utilise. 

A very temporary dip in size looks imminent for Thurs as the closer range Tasman Sea source fades out and we wait for the new swell from the tropical low to make landfall. Certainly by Wed into Thurs the synoptic chart should look insane with a deep low (970-980hPa) retrograding into the Tasman, positioned inside the North island with plenty of space for severe gale to low end storm force winds to be aimed up at the east coast (see below). We’ll expect size to be down on Thurs into the 3-4ft range (occ. 5ft set still a possibility) with a slow downwards trend. Still some super long period S swell in the water through the morning into lunch-time which may offer some opportunity at more exposed reefs. Conditions should be good with light W-SW winds tending to light/mod S’lies. 

Good Friday looks like it will be very good indeed. Powerful, pumping swells from the E/SE should be in the water for the early under premium conditions with light offshore land breezes, eventually tending to light seabreezes. Size looks to be in the 6-8ft range under current modelling with a few 10ft sets a possibility. We’ll finesse that as we get closer to the mark but confidence is now high on the event delivering a significant swell event. Experienced surfers only at most breaks, apart from a few very sheltered novelty spots. This won’t be a swell for people not confident in their ability and fitness to handle heavy water, including getting out and potentially swimming in.

This weekend (Apr 19-20)

Still pumping into Sat although we’re likely to be down a notch from Good Friday’s peak. Likely a solid 6ft with occ. 8ft sets still in the water, under light W-NW winds tending to mod a’noon NE seabreezes. Still solid and powerful and suitable for experienced surfers. 

By Sun we should see surf easing into a range more suitable for a wider range of recreational surfers with 4-5ft surf easing through the day. Light W-NW winds supply premium offshore conditions before a’noon NE seabreezes reach mod paces. 

Next week (Apr 21 onwards)

A fair bit of model divergence into next week but we should see at the least a new high move through the Bight and into the Tasman next week. A new ridge and S’ly change early week is likely to bring some S swell into the picture, possibly accentuated by remnants of this weeks low still hanging around to intensify the S’ly fetch (GFS scenario).

Still lots of uncertainty though, with ECMWF suggesting remnants of the low sitting near the South Island, possibly as a source of S/SE swell and an inland trough/low approaching from Victoria, with an E/NE infeed into the low early next week. 

We’ll see how those possibilities look through the week, in the mean-time plenty to focus on short-term with bigger boards likely coming into play from Good Friday. 

Seeya Wed for the next update.