Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 7th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another nice pulse of S'ly swell Tues, easing slowly Wed, with good winds
• Small, fun leftovers Thurs, becoming tiny Fri
• Small, fun E’ly swells starting to show this weekend
• Flukey long period S swells in the water this weekend favouring S swell magnets
• More small, fun mixed bag surf next week- potential for juicier surf longer term- check back Wed

Recap

Small, fun S to S/SE swells Sat hovered around the 2ft range (bigger 2-3ft on the Hunter) with light winds most of the day after morning offshores. Sun showed S swell coming in hot with surf at the upper end of f/cast expectations (4ft+ at S facing beaches) and bigger sets reported on the Hunter in the 6ft+ range. Conditions were primo for S facing beaches with light W-NW winds tending N/NW-N through the day. We’ve got some nice leftover S swell in the water today offering up clean 2-3ft surf at S facing beaches under light offshore breezes, now tending SW as a front passes through.

Still some sets from the S with nice autumn conditions prevailing

This week (Apr 7-11)

A front passes into the Tasman overnight and robust fetch of SW gales is trailing behind, currently sweeping NE past the SE coast of Tasmania. We’ll see a moderate S swell generated by this fetch, with a dominant high moving into the Tasman in it’s wake and strengthening through the week. A long E’ly fetch then develops in the South Pacific slot with the head of the fetch extending into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. E’ly swells from this source will initially favour the sub-tropics before filtering down into temperate NSW. Zonal fronts well to the south of the continent will supply some flukey long period S swell wrap to magnets later in the week. Longer term the Tasman and Coral Seas are looking unstable again with low pressure development likely. 

In the short run we’ll see a nice, chunky S swell in the water through tomorrow, consisting of majority mid-period swell with some longer period stuff in the mix as well. Size should be up a notch on Sundays swell- 3-5ft (occ. 6ft set possible) across S facing beaches with bigger surf on the Hunter. Light morning breezes should tend W-SW before a light S’ly flow tends S/SE then clocks around E through E/NE. Nothing much above 10kts so even if the light onshore flow kicks in conditions should stay workable for the day.

We’ll see that swell ease off through Wed with a nice morning of 3-4ft surf, bigger sets still on the Hunter, before surf drops through the day to less than 3ft. Light winds in the morning, with land breezes tending to light/mod NE breezes in the a’noon.

A small blend of leftover S and S/SE swells Thursday should still offer a 2 occ. 3ft wave at S swell magnets (much smaller elsewhere) and conditions should stay favourable with light morning W-NW breezes tending to a’noon NE seabreezes. 

Smaller again for Fri with a minor mix of tiny S swells and a faint signal of E swell filtering down from the E’ly fetch. Conditions will be clean with light winds and a’noon seabreezes but don’t expect much more than 1-2ft surf at best. More likely closer to 1ft than 2.

This weekend (Apr 12-13)

Not a great deal of action expected this weekend but there should be a few small rideable waves about. Firstly the long tradewind fetch in the E’ly swell window will start paying a small dividend. Sets to 2ft on Sat should perk up a notch into Sun and offer the occ. 3ft wave but it will be slow going due to the travel distance and modest swell periods. 

In the mix too will be some long period S swell wrap from a large low pressure gyre moving under the continent through the week. The fetches are strong but poorly aligned for the East Coast. Nonetheless refraction back to the coast should offer some 2-3ft sets through Sat at S facing beaches, extending into Sun. Of course, whenever we have long period S swells in the water outliers are possible at S swell magnets. It’s highly unlikely though anything would exceed 4ft. 

Conditions should be favourable both days with light winds. Land breezes in the morning tending E/SE-E on Sat, more NE on Sun. 

Next week (Apr 14 onwards)

Models have been flip flopping on the development of low pressure near New Caledonia, super-charging the tradewind fetch there and sending more sizeable E swell our way. Current modelling is minimising this outcome, with a maintenance of small, fun E’ly swells into next week, under light winds. We’ll keep eyes on it and see how it looks on Wed. 

Activity from the S looks to continue at small/moderate levels as fronts push through under the continent, although nothing directly aims up into the Tasman under current modelling. 

We’ll pencil in a fun week of small, combo swells for now and report back Wed.

Seeya then!