TC Gabrielle brings plenty of size with tricky winds to work around

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Fun south swell Thurs, easing Fri, plus some small east swell too; generally light winds and sea breezes
  • Small leftovers Saturday (though low probability for flukey N'ly groundswell at one or two spots)
  • N’ly winds Sat with a troughy S’ly change Sun AM
  • Large E/NE swell from TC Gabrielle building Sun, holding Mon/Tues, easing Wed, 
  • Winds from the S-SE Mon/Tues, becoming light/variable Wed
  • Easing mix of swells later next week with possible NE windswell by Fri into the weekend 

Recap

Junky horrible surf for the most part yesterday with onshore winds feeding into slow moving/stalled storms creating havoc across the Illawarra and extending into the Sydney region during the day. Size was in the 3ft range with a mix of S and E swells, bigger 3-4ft on the Central and Hunter coasts. Conditions have improved today with light morning breezes and some clean 2-3ft surf- mostly S swell trains with bit of E swell mixed in, and bigger 3-4ft on the Hunter. N/NE sea breezes are kicking up from late morning/lunch-time. 

Clean options and sunshine after yesterday's deluge

This weekend (Feb 11-12)

Few tweaks to the weekend wind f/cast. Severe tropical cyclone (Cat3) Gabrielle is currently tracking SE at about 16 knots and is located about 455 nm NE of Brisbane. Early incarnations of the TC as it was drifting SW showed a fetch of storm force to severe gale NE winds around the NE quadrant which is producing a rare NNE-NE long period swell. Reef and land shadowing make this swell extremely flukey, even though it’s already showing in places along the QLD and NENSW Coast. Through Sat we may see some rare spots (facing NE) pick up some 2-3ft sets during the day but these are extremely rare events and thus have low confidence attached to them.

Otherwise, expect small leftovers for Sat in the 2ft range with the odd 3footer at magnets on the Central and Hunter coasts. Light morning winds will tend N/NE and freshen during the a’noon.

Winds now look trickier Sun, as a trough makes it’s way up the coast. A morning offshore flow is highly likely W-NW in most places, before the trough brings a SW-S change through the early morning in Syd, later morning on the Central Coast/Hunter. 

With TC Gabrielle entering the wide open Eastern swell window through today with E/NE-E gales on the southern flank we’ll see these swells build through Sun. Under-sized 3ft early, building steadily into the 5-6ft range through the post-lunch hours with some 6ft+ sets likely at NE facing spots. You’ll need to work with S’ly quarter winds, tending S/SE through the a’noon but there’ll be plenty of swell energy into protected spots. 

Next week (Feb 13 onwards)

Mon morning and TC Gabrielle is likely to have undergone extra-tropical transition and be a large, low pressure system near the North Island. It’s SE movement will put a slight lid on wave heights (compared to a retrograding SW movement) but we’re still looking at very solid surf for Mon, in the 6-8ft range across most of the region. Winds will be out of the southern quadrant as the trough stalls out around Seal Rocks. Early mod/fresh S’lies are expected to tend lighter SE-ESE during the day so wind protection will need to be factored in.

SE winds continue through Tues under current modelling as a high pushes south of Victoria with troughy remnants in the Tasman Sea. Thats going to continue to restrict surf to more sheltered spots with strong E swell from ex TC Gabrielle continuing in the 6ft+ range. Again, windspeeds are high enough that you’ll need to seek some protection to find decent surface conditions.

By Wed we’ll be on the shoulder of this cyclone swell with a slow ramp down in size through the day. Expect a few 5-6ft sets in the morning, easing back to the 4-5ft range during the day. Winds should lighten up as high pressure moves into the Tasman- possibly seeing a morning land breeze before tending light SE-NE in the a’noon. S’ly fetches around troughs in the lower Tasman look to supply some short/mid period S swell in the 2-3ft range during Wed, opening up peaky beachbreak options in conjunction with the easing E swell.

Through the rest of next week we’ll see a mixed bag of easing, residual E-E/SE swell from what leftover fetch protudes off the west coast of the North island and likely some NE windswell possibly as early as Friday as the high drifts across the Tasman and N’ly winds increase off the NSW coast in response to an approaching frontal system. 

We may see some S swell from this front as it pushes into the Tasman early week 20/2 but it’s too early have any confidence in size or specifics.

Check back Mon for the latest and good luck negotiating this upcoming cyclone swell.

Have a great weekend!

Comments

mrkook's picture
mrkook's picture
mrkook Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 1:02pm

Very excited!

palpacino's picture
palpacino's picture
palpacino Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 1:17pm

Thanks Steve.
Can we expect 6-8ft swell on the Far South Coast down to the Vic border on Monday also?
Or is that size mainly for Sydney and the Illawarra?

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Friday, 10 Feb 2023 at 1:23pm

Cheers Steve.. good luck all hopefully get some waves off gabby

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Saturday, 11 Feb 2023 at 8:06pm

Come on gabby frothing for ya the join the party..

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 9:25am

That sinking feeling when the southerly arrives before the swell …..

Geez Cowries and Reddies would be worth a watch tomorrow

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 9:59am

Scored a few before the sw hit .. hopefully more size later

channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 10:24am

Lol at the northern beaches surf report this morning. Didn’t see anything close to 3 foot this morning.

Dan87's picture
Dan87's picture
Dan87 Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 12:22pm

Thought the exact same thing! Best ones were barely over waist high

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 11:03am

Seemed to be dropping further the longer I was out! Classic cyclone swell. Hopefully wind doesn't move too much more round the E and swell starts to build for some southern corners this arvo.

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 1:25pm

If there is going to be any waves in Sydney later it will be the fastest building swell I have ever seen!! It’s flat out there at the moment

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 3:11pm

It was bigger at first light .. it’s a dying swell at the moment.. come gabby give us something today please

Parko_70's picture
Parko_70's picture
Parko_70 Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 3:42pm

Very average around the Gong atm with these winds killing the better east facing spots.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 3:52pm

Beer o’clock..

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 4:20pm

Frrrk where are the waves?????

Montygoesbananas's picture
Montygoesbananas's picture
Montygoesbananas Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 4:20pm

4 foot set arrived at n styne about 3:30 just as the shark alarm went of, conditions atrocious in the wind as well. Oh well maybe Wednesday.

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 4:39pm

I’ve given up .. on the stubbies now.. massive let down..

555ZZZ's picture
555ZZZ's picture
555ZZZ Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 5:10pm

Coffs Harbour maxing at 3 metres Sunday arvo.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 6:11pm

Macauleys five minutes ago. Not really surfable but an indicator of very big sets:

channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 5:38pm

Seems the forerunners are here but inconsistent. 3-4 foot set then nothing significant for 10-15 minutes.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 6:17pm

Very big set at Yamba - 8-10ft ?

Yeah it's well north of the forecast region but it's much bigger than what we saw at Noosa or the Goldy and, even if we don't see it matching up to this size, the swell is definitely on its way.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 7:25pm

Walked the dog this evening at a Tweed back beach and the swell had really kicked with big, strong lines breaking way out. And Caba cam is now showing huge lines of whitewater, so yeah, it's coming

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 7:15pm

Ok thanks stu that makes sense of the swell today..

Lottolonglong's picture
Lottolonglong's picture
Lottolonglong Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 8:36pm

Easy 4ft sets south of Batemans Bay tonight, paddled out at 530 was 2ft

Distracted's picture
Distracted's picture
Distracted Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 9:06pm

Swell also kicked late this arvo on Mid North Coast, super clean with SW change, 6ft + on the sets. Pity the Crowdy buoy is out of action at the moment to see when the jump in heights came through.

Hazrus's picture
Hazrus's picture
Hazrus Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 10:28pm

7pm —- Definitely 4ft at exposed spots on the northern beaches

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 10:47pm

Surfed for the late 630 till dark - 4ft sets were getting more consistent all session and good amount of white water when I got out at 815am. Wind was into it unfortunately

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Sunday, 12 Feb 2023 at 11:07pm

Some swell arrived very late in my area

john_c's picture
john_c's picture
john_c Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 8:47am

Pretty solid this morning on the Northern Beaches

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 8:54am

Strong kick late on the MNC, weekend crowd disappeared and a c-grade point got upgraded to b+. Epic fun!

This morning the Northern Beaches are large and raw to 6-8ft, not very good.

john_c's picture
john_c's picture
john_c Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 9:13am

A few funs ones where I was, solid 2 x OH on the sets, getting better as the wind swung more south (off shore) and tide dropping!

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 10:52am

Is the call for it to peak tomorrow? I’m guessing yes!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 11:22am

No, peaking now/this arvo.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 11:29am

Couple.

Kinda weird where I was but.

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 2:03pm

Surfed north end Maroubra - big and lots of funky chop and water moving so pretty tough.
I can’t nadda but saw a couple of rogue looking ones and did a lot of duck diving

Parko_70's picture
Parko_70's picture
Parko_70 Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 5:02pm

Easing back in Gong now, went out last night after 730 when it started to muscle up,probably 5-6 foot then, 3.1m at about 12.5s and there was some East in the swell. Peaked late morning early arvo close to 8 foot on the sets with the odd bigger rogue one. Was about 3.7m at 14.8s then, down to about 2.9m now but period still between 13 to 15 seconds. Will head out for another one after work tonight to see how it is.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Monday, 13 Feb 2023 at 5:41pm

Feels like it peaked late morning/midday around here, though I just did a drive right up the northern Illawarra and there's still a few random bommies throwing up serious size. All getting smashed by the wind unfortunately.