Solid surf and offshore winds all weekend, becoming very large Sun afternoon
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th June)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Solid S swell Sat, becoming very large after lunch Sun, extending into Mon
- More solid S swell Tues, easing slowly through Wed
- Last pulse Thurs, easing through the day
- Entire period with offshore winds, fresh at times-winds more SW on Mon
- Surf becoming tiny by next weekend
Recap
Straight offshore winds have been blowing constantly since Wed and straight S swells have been in the water with them. Size yesterday was in the 3-5ft range, bigger 4-6ft on the Hunter. Today has thickened up with inconsistent 4-6ft sets across most of the region with the Hunter and other S swell magnets seeing bigger 6-8ft surf. Surf quality was very much dependent on a given spot being able to handle long lines of S swell.
Strong, thick lines this morning
This weekend (June 11-12)
Still on track for plenty of strong S swell this weekend. Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) passes show gales to severe gales extending down to 55S with a tighter core of storm force winds just emerging from behind Tasmania as it tracks NE into the Tasman Sea. The synoptic flow from the fronts and Southern Gyre remains W to W/SW and that will continue all weekend with plenty of wind chill to boot.
Sat starts with plenty of swell in the 4-6ft range, bigger 6ft+ on the Hunter and other more directly exposed S facing reefs. Through the morning we should see a slight but noticeable muscling up with sets up a foot or so, more noticeable at S exposures as a new pulse arrives, easing a notch in the a'noon.
This size continues on overnight Sat before temporarily easing into Sun morning, before the next big pulse arrives. This one will have teeth as storm force winds generate longer swell periods. We should see a marked increase from lunch-time, up into the 6-8ft range with stronger 8-10ft sets at S facing beaches through the mid a’noon to late a’noon. Swell direction will be very acute S so you’ll find much smaller surf away from S facing exposures. Slightly more W/SW to SW wind through the a’noon may affect some S facing breaks.
Next week (June 13 onwards)
Sundays strong pulse extends through Mon with winds swinging W through SW before tilting W/SW again as the front passes, before easing right back to a possible late seabreeze. Strong, long period sets in the 8-10ft range with bigger surf at deep-water adjacent reefs and Bommie’s for experts only.
Winds should drop right out Tues as weak high pressure moves over the area and we get a light land and seabreeze effect. Those dreamy conditions will prevail over still strong S swell in the 6-8ft range, bigger 8ft at S facing reefs and Bommies with a slow roll-off in size through the a’noon.
Winds remain offshore for Wed and Thurs- but we’re expecting less swell from the bottom of the gyre under New Zealand- as it moves off a bit more quickly than models anticipated on Wed.
Wed will still see surf in the 4-6ft range at S facing breaks, easing back during the day.
A last little kick in size Thurs is expected, boosting surf back into the 5-6ft range, before easing during the day.
By the end off next week we’ll see surf easing more fully, down to 2-3ft Fri and then tiny for next weekend.
Into the medium term and we’ll be tracking a potential sub-tropical low forming in the South Pacific slow between New Caledonia and the North Island as well as SE fetch off the South Island which shows some potential. Both of these are right at the end of model projections so we’ll see how that are shaping up on Mon.
For now, all eyes to the South. Have a great weekend and seeya Monday!
Comments
This south swell just makes my area erupt its going off and getting bigger by the hour.
Third check of the point today and it's still only head high with the guts of it sailing your way north.
Crazy conditions though.
You did the suit up and drive away this morning!
Good call.
If it’s going to be bigger on Sunday it’s going to be really big. North of 6ft just now at Curly, not a soul out, looked like tow conditions
I had a quick paddle at curly around 4pm. Definitely some solid ones… shame about the banks.
Credit it to you. Looked like a low yield option but I could imagine if you were towed in on a short board you could do some work on the open face before they shut down.
I’d put the bombs at 8 feet...but I’m a notorious wuss
Thats good news.
FR - sets well north of 8ft here every now and then. Just watched the drum line off Wanda almost get cleaned up.
6ft or so and inconsistent first thing this morning, and got some good uns on the beach.
Muscled up around 10am or so and became consistent 6-8ft with a lot of water moving around. You expecting it to back off a little tomorrow morning before ramping again?
If another strong pulse isn't there first light it won't be far away.
Fuk n fuk n fuk again… anyone got a miracle cure for broken ribs???
Oxycodone
Lots of west in the swell.
3ft in Narooma today.
Stu did your Tinnitus start around your use of Oxycodone?
Nah, I had very low level tinnitus for years before that accident, and I don't recall it being worse after my stint in the Morph Ward.
Really did come on hard when I got COVID.
pumping on Central Coast today. Yesterday was much more user friendly
Stu im stunned it wasnt 10ft but didnt you see every set was a idiot proof barrel feast?
You sure are a hard person to please its the east coast you know not indo.
This part of the coast is a south swell black hole. Especially the pure south ones. I can see them all heading north to Cronulla, but very little gets in here.
This morning had the odd five-footer at the local point, but again, I can see it's easily double that up in Bate Bay.
I thought you were north of W'gong?
I am. North of Wollongong, south of Cronulla.
Ah yes. Brain in a fog after forecasting this snow/wind/thunderstorm monster for a week now. Misread Cronulla as Ulladulla.
Enjoy the waves and sun, everybody. It's shit over here, but at least the mountains are getting plastered.
Big today. Our surf reporter called 4-6ft. Not sure what's going on but I just watched a tow crew and it was 3-4 times overhead ie 18-20ft faces.
Agreed it kicked solid from mid morning on the n beaches Mhl buoy readings showed max wave heights hitting 7m so some big ones out there for sure
Ulladulla regions missing it. 3’-5’ with a mix of periods and a tad east of south in the swell direction.
Bigger badder heavier and rounder today. Mad day of waves
Great stuff @evosurfer. Good on ya!
Swells like this I miss Cronulla...
45min up the road too far for an every now and then swell?
Did that drive last Friday and nearly died.
Kinda surprised just how badly the local point is responding to this swell, while I'm hearing all sorts of crazy stories about the old stomping ground.
Meanwhile, another 45 mins further again and Chon is getting stuck into this:
That looks very nice.
In a photo.
Would you hit that if it was on your doorstep?
Insaaaaaane! What a wave.
Dang he’s good. I crossed over with him briefly on the bombie and felt like a beginner again (which I guess I kinda am out there) watching him picking apart the lineup while we all just sat there wondering.
Looks good to me!
Matts first surf on his 10'2 Mctavish
Cennie coast, not so big first thing, tide(?) affected. Pulse midday with rise saw a local break getting serious, 6-8’ and working, but every other beach just overpowered. Went back again and watched between 1.00 pm til 2,30. From macking and working to getting drowned out with the tide. Even when it was working it was tough work, agreed by a number of surfers coming out of the water. But hey, what do you expect from the only beach in the area that was workable.
Yes, got to agree, plenty around lunch today on the cenny coast. Quite a few beatings in the mix :-)
Almost impossible to surf in the northern Illawarra this morning. Downslope winds off the escarpment are creating a firehose effect with spray off each wave blowing hundreds of metres out to sea. Looking at cams to the north and south - Cronulla and Wollongong - and the wind is positively sedate. Here it's ferocious.
Welcome to the northern Illawarra haven’t seen it like this for a while but love the area regardless.
Might have looked sedate in the Gong on the camera, but down on the water it is howling and filled with icicles.
Was so much nicer yesterday morning.
Just weighing up the Gong cam vision to the, so far, three visits to the carpark this morning. It's fucking brutal. The crowd, or lack of, tells the story.
Even Bellambi ATS isn't copping the downslope winds to the extent we are.
Only positive is that it wasn't bin night, otherwise it'd be wheely bin armageddon.
You need to drive down to the other side of the lake stu. Been some good ones around.
Cronulla Point yesterday:
Good viewing on the cronulla point cam right now
8.2m @ 17 seconds on the bouy. Point 10ft sets. 5th's is I don't know- 20ft
Jesus!
Edit - I’ve got no idea what area you’re talking about but those numbers are impressive
Finally coming together down this way.
Still windy as hell, but it's getting proper big.
Just broke 5th to the Shoals Stu and its close to high tide. The brain is not coping.
From what I can see, Cronulla is easily winning this swell.
Jughead:
DY:
Think I just saw a 12-15ft top to bottom set on Queensy Bommie.
Any eyes on it there late?
Buoy sure is spiking.
Watched Northy bombie all arvo and there were easy 15 foot sets breaking.
Likely FR. Smaller than yesterday on the NB's but seemed to be kicking strongly late.
Not the biggest I’ve seen the bombie FR but if the lip is pitching then it’s at least a 10ft face. Does that many times a year.
Yesterday morning looked a bit bigger
Looked biggest just before dark on the NB. Did a curly/DY drive by. One bloke out at DY on a very long board and was just surviving from what I saw.. Curly was breaking way out - maybe past the northern headland. Much bigger than when I surfed around lunchtime.
Wedding Cake looking wicked this arvo, but not at its peak yet. Sometime overnight I assume. Tomorrow morning might be peachy, for those who can handle that sort of juice. Watched as the last man standing at sunset sort of caught one, and then was inside about 6 waves, watched to make sure there were no 2 wave hold downs, and it was touch and go. Made it up just in time 4 times, and was ultimately 200 metres or so inside where he started.
Big props to the boys out there today.
Another insane day of perfect barrels today up until about 1500 then it went to
insane level of size power massive giant take offs and hold downs just crazy how
quickly and big it got. All perfect and off shore just big and scary.
What size are you calling sets this arvo Evo ?
Very big waves around here today. Oddly, after something like ten days straight of westerly, there's a slight wobble running through it. Thought it'd be ruler-edged. Nevertheless, very big, surface real clean, and a small crew getting some fair dinkum bombs.
Currently undergoing mass carb consumption for the next round.
What board you on?
Surfing bombie waves or slabs?
300m pointbreak with a wide range of personalities. Choose board according to mood and section. First light sat far outside on a 7'6" dropping into some steep, open-faced waves, swapped down to a 6'8" for a few turns on smaller reef huggers, then second session when the tide went low and chipshots came into play, paddled out on a very flat and thick 6'4" - actually a Stretch Comp Gun radically reduced in size. Still some very big waves coming through.
Despite outside size, it was possible to sit further down the line and ride a shortboard - as long as you don't mind a bit of current.
Sounds like it couldn’t be any more fun. What a day in the ocean.
udo I would say point a easy 10ft and perfect, heaving and heavy
reefs and bombies according to the tow boys 15ft