Large S swell settles down quickly through Sun, with improving conditions

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 1st Apr)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Large S swell Fri/Sat as storm force low sits off coast. Huge seas and gale force S'lies confine surf to only a few spots Fri, winds tending more SW Sat
  • Easing through still solid surf Sun AM, becoming small and user friendly in the a'noon with offshore winds, tending to seabreezes in the a'noon
  • Small and clean Mon, even smaller Tues
  • Possible S swell Wed, with S'ly winds likely
  • Short range E/SE swell likely to build in Thurs with onshore winds
  • Short range E/SE swell peaking Fri with onshore winds
  • E/NE swell likely next weekend as cyclone and cradling E'ly fetch form in the Coral and Tasman Seas

Recap

Surf has been solid from the S, as a deep Tasman low winds up, with plenty of strong S to SW wind accompanying the swell. Yesterday built into the 6-8ft range across exposed stretches of coastline, with smaller surf in more protected locations. Today has maintained that size, with a steep building trend expected through the a’noon, as a result of storm force winds developing around the SE flank of the low. Strong to gale force S’ly winds are confining surf to more protected locations. 

Solid at first light

Becoming large and unruly across most beaches

This weekend (Apr 2-3)

The Taman low deepens this a’noon, with a corresponding rise in surf through the later a’noon, up into the 12-15ft range at exposed Southern breaks.

Swell is now expected to peak in the early hours of Sat morning at similar size and winds are strong to low end gale force SW, tending W’ly through the a’noon. 

That will offer a window of improving conditions at Big Wave Spots, albeit under strong offshore conditions, which will make any offshore bombies hard to ride.

For most recreational surfers, it’ll be spectating from a vantage point or heading to the most sheltered novelty spots. Through the a’noon, we’ll see a settling and slow easing in size, likely with sets to 8-10ft, becoming more inconsistent and tidally affected.

The easing trend becomes more pronounced overnight Sat into Sun, due to the low tracking towards the Gippsland Coast and weakening quickly.  That will see a much more settled ocean Sun morning with sets to 6ft, possibly a few leftover 8ft sets for the early, before size ramps down rapidly through the day. Winds look favourable for a large range of S and SE facing breaks, with NW to W/NW winds through the morning, likely tending to light NE sea breezes through the a’noon. By the a’noon we’ll be down to size in the 2-3ft range at S exposed breaks. 

Next week (Apr4 onwards)

Very quiet and small start to next week now expected. The remnants of the current Tasman low will be located off the Gippsland coast, still with some structure but not generating any meaningful swell. High pressure will have slipped underneath the low, with a regime of weak pressure gradients across most of the state. That will see light winds Mon, W to NW early, tending to sea breezes in the a’noon. Not much surf is expected, around 1-2ft at the most exposed S facing breaks, smaller elsewhere and only suited to beginners.

That small size extends into Tues and likely Wed as well. Winds remain light and variable Tues with a potential small trough seeing early SW winds tend more SE through the day.

That small trough is likely to linger Wed, seeing winds tend S through the day. A front will pass through the lower Tasman and the leading edge of a new high pressure ridge will likely build through the day.

Things get very much juicier by Thurs next week, although allowing for the long lead time it’s likely we’ll be revising any calls made now.

The trough off the NSW Coast is expected to deepen and in conjunction with the large high moving at Tasmanian latitudes, create a large SE to E’ly fetch aimed at Southern NSW. This is likely to see a fairly rapid increase in size from the same direction, along with onshore winds through Thurs. Lets pencil in 4-6ft of size based on current modelling.

This size ramps up further Fri as the fetch matures.

Whilst this is occurring a potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to track in a S’ly direction through the Eastern edge of the Coral Sea (see below). Models have been shifting the track around in recent runs so that is still unclear, although it seems most likely the system will slide off the sub-tropical ridge to the SE, past New Zealand. The so-called “graveyard”.

What is much more reliable is the cradling fetch of E to SE winds which develop through the Northern Tasman and Southern Coral Sea later next week. While these winds are better aimed at sub-tropical areas, we can expect to see a maintenance of swell from the eastern quadrant later next week and into the weekend. It’s likely surf will ease off the peaks from the more proximate fetch late next week but build sometime next weekend from the E/NE as the more distant swell trains make landfall.

Onshore winds look to ease into next weekend as the high drifts away and pressure gradients close to the coast slacken.

Check back Mon and we’ll dial in these developments.

Until then, have a great weekend!

Comments

SimonJ's picture
SimonJ's picture
SimonJ Friday, 1 Apr 2022 at 8:44pm

And it is meant to be sunny sunday. Wonder if it will be crowded...

Queef Jerky's picture
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Queef Jerky Friday, 1 Apr 2022 at 9:39pm

If you gimme another week of nice weather, I might have to drive back to the coast for mullet salmon shark surfing season!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 5:03am

These readings are some of the biggest I've seen with offshore winds..

two-dogs's picture
two-dogs's picture
two-dogs Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 7:00am

Nudging 12m Hmax @ 14s now....

linez's picture
linez's picture
linez Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 5:13am

Up early Craig!

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 8:08am

Extremely big around here, yet nowhere surfable. Have to wait a few hours for things to settle down.

Quick drive around shows some significant erosion at many beaches. It's been a bad year for it but what I've seen appears the worst yet.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 8:21am

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 8:59am

I can’t believe how much swell has poured into east coast Oz since Freeride took up the forecasting duties. A couple of mentions of baby food and the rest of the time it’s between surf-worthy to sizeable to off the Richter.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 2:41pm

Filth!!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 5:00pm

Mastering the new 9'2'.......and getting a Score of 10......plus !!!!!!!!


joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 10:04pm

It looked like that length was a hinderance and not a help out there! (Said from the safety of my armchair behind a screen! )

Robwilliams's picture
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Robwilliams Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 5:40pm

Any more info on board undo?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 5:55pm

yes i have plenty..

Montygoesbananas's picture
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Montygoesbananas Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 6:01pm
udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 6:20pm

Those Chaps that are still out at Queeny Bombie...you are Mad !

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 7:00pm

Been watching bits and pieces of the cam there all day. Earlier this morning i saw a set come through that was feathering and shoaling a good kilometre out to sea before it reached the bombie. Two insane right handers subsequently followed as they hit the bombie. Full throaty barrels. No one was out understandably. Couldn't even guess the size. Maybe 20 foot??

joesydney's picture
joesydney's picture
joesydney Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 10:07pm

That Josh Ku wave is deadset pushing into Mavs territory- deadset legitimate big wave. Well played!

I was wondering where Josh was surfing as I checked the EB bombies

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 7:25pm

Unreal Udo.
Looking at the current position of the Low, is there any way swell from it could reach the coast between Barwon Heads and Apollo Bay? Would be a rarity surely, but a possibility? Or too much in between and swell decay.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 11:45pm

This doesn’t happen what so ever would only get wind swell generated from hogan island to the surfcoast so mostly just messy slop that no where handles

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 12:15am

Thanks mate. Upon closer inspection, realised you're correct. There's just no avenue for swell from E 2 W or W 2 E to find it's way all the way across Bass Straight....not without the storm on top of it anyway. Was just trying to give the poor vicco surfers something to get their hopes up for but I think i've made it worse. Cheers.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 5:45am

It would be my dream for us to get swells from multiple directions(other than just wind swells, and have reefs that hold them) because vicco is so predictable it makes it so easy for everyone to know where to go and less excitement about unknown possibilities

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 7:44pm

Sol Gruendling had a dig out there today
14 farkn yrs old ...and pulled in - Legend..

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 9:56pm

here he is - Figs Sol .

Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 8:18pm

Rad

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 10:16pm

Here's a 20 footer - Go full screen on this one

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 11:24pm

Yep! That is legit.
I've just watched this 4 times and it gets better each time.
What a legend. Deadset.

sean killen's picture
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sean killen Saturday, 2 Apr 2022 at 10:54pm

Awesome footage thanks again.. deadmans crew ..

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 6:47am

Yesterday was a very special day of waves around here. Few crew really looking forward to this morning, however I think they might have underestimated the strength of that nor'wester.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 7:00am

How big down there yesterday Stu?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 7:40am

First light on the bommies had to be bigger than 15ft...maybe even closer to 20ft, but there was no-one around for scale. A very big, energetic ocean, though anywhere handling the swell - as in, breaking far enough out and surrounded by deep water - was copping the early sou-wester.

I can't recall a swell as big and clean.

Between, say, 7am and 9am it dropped a noticeable amount, bringing it back to a size we see two or three times every year, though the wind kept shifting west opening up more options.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 7:47am

go on ..........

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 4:13pm

Biggest I have seen at Cronulla - ever. Many say the same.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 7:32am

Watched the winki cam for a while yesterday, couple bodyboarders getting crazy barrels.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 8:22am

And in the Blue Hat we have.............
Cant wait to see your pics Craigie

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 8:35am

How's the complete and utter wanker on some powered stick out the island, what an absolute fuckwit.

FrazP's picture
FrazP's picture
FrazP Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 4:06pm

Hey Sprout - I don't know the bloke but he is generally pretty sweet. He goes seriously hard in the monster stuff and on the outer reefs too.

boogiefever's picture
boogiefever's picture
boogiefever Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 8:45am

Hey guys...qlder here.
Best cams to watch the action on today pls???
Is deadmans the sth point off manly? Dont worry, i wont be dropping in on u anytime soon....

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 9:25am

If those sets at Deadmans were Waimea........

The Eddie would be called ON

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 9:37am

Surfest is on

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 11:41am

Just tuned in.
Hog is ripping and getting underscored imo

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 3:02pm

Doing good in the quarters too LD.
It's been an enjoyable comp to watch on a rainy day here.
They're running it all the way through today if anyones looking for a good relaxing Sunday arvo of surfing.
Bonus Hoy commentary and Ronnies back behind the mic so highly entertaining and there's some pretty damn nice waves coming through.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 3:14pm

Nice to have the Aussie commentary be relaxed and informative, ask good questions in the interviews and not baby us through the absolute basics of surfing such as what a goofy footer is.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 3:52pm

hahaha. Definitely!
So just to be clear, when you're surfing left and facing the wave..??
Hoping to see Jacko Baker take it out in the mens, and maybe backing Freya in the womens. She's pretty legendary.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 3:58pm

Looking at the conditions, can only imagine there must be hundreds of spots pumping up and down the coast today. No wonder it's a little quiet on SN!! Hope all scored some great waves.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 10:06am

Just the bit I saw... 30 out including kids competing in a comp...
7:49 almost hits a surfer then goes back to prove how small his cock is.
8:50 almost hits a bodyboarder.
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/shark-island/replays#/2022-04-03/1867728

0:15 comes back to confirm his embarrassing lack of maturity and that daddy didn't love him.
https://www.swellnet.com/surfcams/shark-island/replays#/2022-04-03/1867752

Hopefully his board was separated into to many pieces via way of his head.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 10:11am

Yeah that's unbelievable Sprout. I watched a little and my first thought was, is he on ice or something?? I reckon i saw him run clean over someone else. I thought it was illegal to use powered craft amongst swimmers and surfers.
Hopefully his remote is currently lodged right where the sun don't shine. Can't let this creep into lineups, especially places as critical as that.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 11:33am

He's been doing it for 15 years, and as far as I'm aware he's never been busted. Got taken to court once, but was let off on a technicality (can't quite recall the details but he had the importer of the ski testify about the nature of the contraption).

Womble123's picture
Womble123's picture
Womble123 Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 7:31pm

I've seen him out loads. Fine at the beachies when he's away from folks or at the outer reefs but at the Island on a small day with all the people out.... NO WAY. Someone needs to sort that out.

simsurf's picture
simsurf's picture
simsurf Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 6:20pm

Surprised no one is waiting in the car park to snap it in half.

Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 10:32am

Classic comment, Who's going? Love watching crew take it on. Just mind the step. They are paddling bombs. Crowd cheering them on and loving it. Intimidating wave without adding any more pressure and making a bad selection. Pure surfing when Crew are taking it on. Variety of equipment and experience out there is also a talking point. Charging it. When and who first started surfing deadmans behind the step? Local crew pushing it no doubt.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 11:38am

How farkn Tuff are some of these Guys charging waves like that...20ft stepped ugly shit just going these things for Fun and the Love of Surfing..

And then we have well paid sponsored WCT surfers who get to Surf perfect Macking pipeline in a comp
Perfectly Groomed 6 -10 ft Pits........and can only catch 2 waves...WTF
One said :
Had high expectations for pipe, was excited to get some good ones [a 0.43 and a 1.40 wtf ] but it wasn’t meant to be, made a couple errors. Fired up for the next comp .

Kudos to all you guys that Surfed Deadmans and thank you for the Spectacle YEW ! !

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 5:42pm

And Jacko Baker takes out Surfest, first Novocastrian ever to win it. What a great bookend to what sounds like was the swell of a lifetime. Nice to watch it all unfold from afar. Alright Stu and Craig. Really looking forward to your pics and breakdown.

Mcface's picture
Mcface's picture
Mcface Sunday, 3 Apr 2022 at 7:59pm

Day for the Hellmen yesterday, day for the punters today.