Wild week of wind, rain and swell ahead
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon28th Feb)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Days of Chunky E/NE to E swell from Mon, with E'ly winds, tending more NE from Wed
- Possible window of W'ly winds later Wed PM, as low lingers offshore from Sydney
- Stronger, longer period E'ly swell on the weekend with lighter winds
- Possible SE swell early next week
Recap
Generally light winds over the weekend supplied some fun windows of surf. Size in the 3ft range Sat, built a notch Sunday into the 3-5ft range. Light winds have extended into this morning with a slight easing trend continuing and surf in the 3-4ft range. Water quality has been impacted by rainfall and conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next 48 hrs as a coast hugging low moves south from sub-tropical NSW, where it has caused historic flooding. Details below.
Building E swell with plenty of stormwater run-off to deal with
This week (Feb28-Mar4)
Blocking high pressure straddles the south-east of the continent with centres near New Zealand and Tasmania. This is maintaining a deep E’ly flow, with coastal troughs and a surface low off the NSW North Coast, now moving South. Another tropical depression near New Caledonia is in the process of re-invigorating a long E’ly fetch in the South Pacific corridor, with plenty of E swell on track from this source later in the week. It’s an incredibly dynamic outlook as the close range source and more distant E swell source overlap this week.
In the short run, and onshore winds from the E, will tend SE through tomorrow, freshening through the day and confining surfable spots to the most protected locations. Expect surf to build from 3-5ft up into the 4-6ft range, grading smaller into more sheltered spots.
Wednesday is going to be a very gnarly day in the f/fast region. Latest modelling shows a southern cell of a multi-centred coastal low approaching the Hunter Coast during the day. Solid E swell from a proximate fetch of gales off the coast is expected tp push up up into the 8ft , possibly bigger during the day as the low approaches. Wind outlook is highly fluid, depending on the position of the low centre. Strong SE to NE winds are on the table, with a W’ly outflow likely on the northern flank of the low. At present this W’ly outflow is more likely across the Hunter and lower end of the MNC (Seal Rocks) during the a’noon. Stay tuned for updates and keep tabs on local winds. It’s going to be a wild day.
Thursday is far from set in stone, as far as local winds go. EC maintains the low centre off the Sydney coast , with offshore winds from the Sydney Basin northwards, and strong onshore winds to the south of the low. GFS washes the low out and re-establishes a broad E/NE flow over the area. Surf-wise, there’ll be lots of solid E swell in the water. Likely 8-10ft on exposed coasts, smaller in more sheltered areas. Surf quality Thurs is very much dependent on how the coastal low behaves with a wide range of outcomes on offer.
Friday should see a more general E/NE to NE flow establish as the coastal low continues to track south and/or washes out. That will leave an angry, onshore sea, with plenty of strong 6ft E swell still in the water.
The takeaway this week is there is the possibility of small windows of more favourable winds possible, but they will be fleeting and unreliable. Tons of swell will be on hand.
This weekend (Mar 5-6)
While the coastal low is bombarding the coast with swell this week the more distant South Pacific fetch will be moving into the swell window. Longer period E/NE to E swell from this source is expected to hold plenty of size on Sat, with sets in the 6ft range on offer. A general mod/fresh NE flow is expected making wind protection a must. If you can find a headland to tuck in behind there’ll be plenty of swell energy to play with.
That strong swell energy from the E, carries through at similar levels through Sun. GFS model maintains the strong NE to E/NE flow, adding one more angry onshore day to the mix. EC model suggests a much lighter NE flow as a trough hovers around the South Coast. That gives us some hope at this early stage of a cleaner day Sunday while all this strong E swell is in the water. Stay tuned for updates.
Next week (Mar7 onwards)
There’ll be no lack of swell to carry us through the first half of next week, but conditions will still require some settling down.
The sheer amount of energy in the ocean from near and far sources is going to see E’ly swell hold in at least the 4-6ft range into early next week, with only a slow easing trend in place through the first half of the week. We’ll deal with the specifics of that easing trend as we move through the week.
The much bigger curve ball is a prospective trough forming in the Lower Tasman off the South Coast as a new high pressure tracks well South and East of Tasmania early next week.
EC model suggests the trough will form an angular NW-SE line extending from roughly Sydney latitudes towards the South Island. Under that scenario we’ll see a broad coverage of SE gales form along the trough line, generating a pulse of SE swell through early next week.
GFS maintains a NE flow until Wed with a much weaker S’ly change occurring then.
E’ly swell trains from the South Pacific source slowly fade after mind next week which will likely see this incredibly active, stormy start to Autumn enter a more subdued phase.
Check back Wed for a fresh update.
Comments
Dont forget Sharknados!
Not feeling good about entering the water again after last couple of days - been cleared out twice from the local by sightings
Been the same in the gong. Supposedly someone sighted one from a boat 300m out back of my local beachie. A white apparently. Every ripple gives me a fright
Yep same, sketch. Waves were sick but!
Is the wind going to spoil the swell again around the Illawarra.. looks like it.
Didn’t know about the sightings so had a great time, fewer people at Freshie, wonder why?
EC is currently the outlier regarding the location of the low tomorrow evening (11pm).
GFS and hi-res ACCESS-R have it located further south with improving conditions around Sydney. EC would be a large, wet, mess.
EC
GFS
ACCESS-R
Putting the surf aside for a moment: With already saturated soil and much more rain forecast to come today and tomorrow, the wind predictions are a worry for those in leafy areas.
Various locations have winds gusting up to 60km/h tomorrow arvo.
The closer this system gets the higher the upgrades swell rain wind etc it will be a beast
The beaches are trashed, the mtb trails are trashed - and will get even more trashed if the wind kicks in tomorrow - but it's all worth it if the models are right about Thursday morning:
Latest show more east in the wind now which is a shame!
Always curious to see how Stockton fairs in these large E swells/ECLs with big tides. I've sussed it out nearly every swell event since 2013, documenting the erosion as a hobby and also scanning for relics in the aftermath. This could be a good one but I've just moved to Melb for study :( I'm not rooting for Stockton's destruction but nature will have her way regardless so I might as well be fascinated by it.
Models have gone the way of EC re winds tomorrow :(
Currently Sydney’s coast is not getting much rain, but radars show a lot of rain in the south, south west, west and north west. Like Sydney CBD and coast is the hole in the doughnut.
Will be checking North Entrance again next time I’m up there Craig. Will be interesting to see what this does to the sand there.
EC looks to have the low centred over Sydney tomorrow middle of the day. That means batten down the hatches for everywhere south of Sydney. Stu, keep yourself safe down there.
And now 7 minutes after my earlier post it is bucketing down, coming sideways at the windows. Buckets have been in place for days, no need to move them, just empty them regularly. ;-)
Yeah last I saw BF it's not good at all! Also heaviest falls just inland of the costal fringe for this event.
Just did a drive up to Scarborough and back. No flooding but all the creeks are torrents and it means the beaches are getting hammered from behind pushing sand into the wave zone and changing the beach profiles.
For example, at the northern end of Thirroul, Flanagans Creek has broken open in two places, each a broad delta that's flattened the beach slope, while down the south end the stormwater drain under the ocean pool has similarly cleared almost all sand in front of it. An hour shy of high tide and the waves were washing almost back to the walkway.
Similar scene at McCauleys with Hewitts and Woodland Creeks excavating the beach from behind, and I imagine the same will be happening down at Bulli, Woonona, Corrimal etc etc.
Doubt the newly-relocated sand will hold shape for long against the wave onslaught but it's worth keeping an eye on things for a day or two after it settles down.
Of greater concern down here is the amount of trees that are gonna come down as the wind ramps up. As I arrived home the SES were taping off a yard next street over after a tree fell. With every patch of soil now just trumped up mud, there ain't nothing for roots to cling to.
anyone know how the great wall of collaroys going?
I'm around that way tomorrow so will try and get a few photos and a video of the wave action which I assume will hit the wall at high tide (1.9m at 9.43am on Thursday!).
They're piling up tons of sand in front of it. I thought the wall was made to buffer from the ocean? Not to then have additional sand trucked at tax payer expense?
LOL
Is the low still expected to move south? It appears to have stalled, maybe even tracked back up the coast is the past hour? Lots of rain but thankfully the wind hasn’t picked down this way.
Only slightly but not favourably. Just going to bring oversized swell and onshore surf now.
Thanks Craig.
The rainfall totals are piling up, mainly in the southern Illawarra and western Sydney.
Totals since 9am:
Clover Hill - 110mm (154mm for 24 hrs)
Macquarie Pass - 104mm (161mm for 24hrs)
Robertson - 102mm (140mm for 24hrs)
All those stations are within a few kms of each other and each flows into Lake Illawarra.
Western Sydney stations, totals since 9am:
Smallwoods Crossing - 89mm
Wisemans Ferry - 85mm
St Albans - 82mm
Warragamba - 70mm
Richmond - 70mm
Each of the above flow to, or are in, the Hawkesbury/Nepean catchment. Much more rain coming to that area.
The Northern Beaches council have clearly used some well though out and strategic sand placements to protect the Collaroy sea wall.
CB what’s actually going on there? Have they placed little sand berms around the staircase exits to stop pedestrian access?
Will send pics of Wamberal tommorrow as well .. high tide today it was only a metre off the base of the houses..
Really interested to see that Sean. They are in a world of hurt there.
As for the rain, it’s been pretty bad and pretty heavy and often horizontal on the coast, for most of the day with momentary lapses, and every time I look at the radar everywhere else in Sydney is getting much, much worse.
North west, north, west, south west absolutely getting a flogging, and I don’t need to tell Stu that it has been looking very harsh indeed down the Illawarra. Makes me wonder how he got in his car and did a reconnoitre.
Nepean is nearly at 15m and looks to push past last year's height :(
Nepean River at Menangle rocketed past 15m - now 15.10.
BOM thought it may peak at the 'major flood level' of 13m this evening but it's clearly gone past that.
Menangle is a harbinger of sorts for what western Sydney will wake up to tomorrow, as it's is at the very head of the Nepean, so the flood water has to flow downriver, through areas like Warragamba (106mm since 9am), Richmond (89mm since 9am), and Wisemans Ferry (102mm since 9am), that are already overflowing.
All that water is gonna go up before it goes out.
No Wed notes?
Rain - shit loads of it and wind from north east to south east and lots of swell!
Job done!
HAHAHAHA. True though!
Yeah I been waiting to read the notes . It’s what I pay for . Don’t use it for anything else
Sorry Dan, posted this in Qld notes last night but didn't think to post here too.
Right now there is no internet anywhere on the Northern Rivers right now (NBN or 4G). So, bearing in mind that Steve lives on the Northern Rivers (along with other staff plus the Swellnet office), this means no local surfcams, and no way for us to access forecast data, and therefore no way to upload new FC Notes to the site (I'm travelling interstate right now, unable to assist until Friday).
Here's part of the information we received via our wholesale NBN account earlier today (I've removed unnecessary info):
"A loss of signal...at multiple Fibre Access Node (FAN) sites has caused...an unplanned outage. The severe storms have caused a loss of power to the FAN site. The site has been running off battery backups which have now been depleted. Field services are currently unable to gain access to the site due to road closures and weather conditions in the area.
...
Provider who manages power to the site advises road closures may remain for up to two days
...
NBN Network Engineers conducted a review to re-direct network traffic...however access to the Woodburn site is needed."
Time to bust out the ….__.__…_.__…___
No worries, thanks.
Rain model for Sydney for tomorrow looks nasty with the ECL making landfall. Could be like the Brisbane and Lismore systems which just stalled in the one spot for an extended period.
Feel like I'm missing a major event
Some very big rainfall totals in the Illawarra and Sydney basin, numbers more akin to tropical and sub-tropical climes.
All totals since 9am yesterday:
Robertson - 192mm
Macquarie Pass - 176mm
Clover Hill - 172mm
Each of which flows into Lake Illawarra.
Up in Sydney:
Warragamba - 170mm
Badgerys Creek - 143mm
St Albans - 139mm
Wisemans Ferry - 135mm
100mm+ falls have been recorded all the way up the Hawkesbury/Nepean catchment.
Other notable falls:
Dora Creek (west of Lake Macquarie) - 212mm
Porters Creek Dam (inland from Lake Conjola) - 169mm
Brogers Creek (north of Nowra) - 150mm
I live in Calderwood just east of Macquarie Pass, almost all the main roads flooded yesterday, but to be honest it doesn’t take much for that to happen. Everything is so waterlogged from all the wet weather we have had, any consistent rain causes flooding.
Can we get a High Tide pic of this today a.m. ?
Swell is peaking now but will remain large though easing through tomorrow with more workable, gusty S'ly winds, tending weaker S/SE into the afternoon around Sydney and north.
A bit on this morning..
Ha ha ha, quotes from The Iliad, one of my favourite books. Might have to pull that out again, for the 6th or 8th time. The Odyssey is good too, but the language in The Iliad is sublime.
Woke up this morning and there isn’t rain lashing against the windows, not even blowing much. Thinking the centre of the low must be above us. Check the radar and the rain is mostly at sea and now heading, what, north west! Hmmmm, and somewhere off Newcastle to Forster looks like it might be be turning, which suggests the centre is somewhere off the coast around there and probably getting closer.
Looks like more is hitting the Maitland, Dungog, Port Stephens area and may do for a while as it spins. Everywhere north of Sydney to Forster could be in for a tough day.
Still can’t quite work out why it’s not blowing hard here, being on the south west of where it seems to be centred. Craig might have an answer for that.
Cheers Stu re the rain metrics. That’s some serious dumping, and yes, that will all feed into Warragamba, Nepean, Hawkesbury and Georges. Sydney surrounded.
Here's the approx current position of the low BF..
Of course, look at windytv! Centre of the low off Seal Rocks and getting close to the coast now.
When discretion is the better part of valour at the DY rock off
Drove around this morning. Local pointbreak has just one fella out, old mate Chris James gutsliding 10fters on his Drag finless foamy.
Local beachie is getting smashed from all sides:
At the north end, waves are pushing up the mouth of Flanagans Creek. A day or so ago, the beach here was 50m wide with the creek split into two entrances.
Drove up the coast and saw similar rain and wave damage everywhere.
Wow, that's crazy! I hope we still have some banks when it calms down
Hey guys I noticed over last few months pretty much all these big ENE swell seemed to make landfall during spring/king tides..
is this some pure coincidence or is there some kinda correlation at cosmic/atmospheric level like a chain effect event causing those storms in relation to magnetic fields?? Or am I just tripping
Really interested in your expert interpretation of this phenomenon, i’d b dissapointed if there’s a simple explanation for it
Yeah just coincidence and more likely than you think. Those spring high tides are 2x a month but also come in big a few days either side of them, so that makes it about 1/4 of the month.
True, well i guess thats bad luck for properties right on the coast as it only enhances erosional processes !
I gotta say am dissapointed was hoping for some deep cosmic buterfly effect theory hahaha anyone keen to speculate…?
watched someone take over 30 mins to paddle back in to sheds yesterday. Going round in circles with the sweep. I'm crook from surfing in creek run-off last sunday. Pass.
How’s the inflow from way out east for the next week! https://www.windy.com/?-35.604,164.971,5,i:pressure
Wow, how's this guy in Newy from the report!
W.t.f I know some wash is good for fishing but that’s nuts!! Surely all fish are bunkered down under rocks at the moment waiting this thing out?
now thats dedication and also a possible news story later after he drowns.
Just had a go out. Seems to be settling down slightly.
Still really big here- maybe 3x OH at Lurline. Apparently some were out at Lurline earlier in the day - would have been interesting paddle in!
Still really big here- maybe 3x OH at Lurline. Apparently some were out at Lurline earlier in the day - would have been interesting paddle in!
Models looking good for the weekend - especially Saturday?
Cleaner but lumpy.
That will do
Are any of the water storage reservoirs in Sydney over-flowing? Some of them haven't been full for a decade or more from my understanding.
All the big ones are full, Spud.
https://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/Greater-Sydney/greater-sydneys-dam-levels
Most began opening their spillways earlier this week to release water into the rivers.
The primary dam, Warragamba, was down to about 40% in 2019. Before that we had a drought around 2000-2004 when it got into the low 30s and the then-premier Morris Iemma authorised the building of a salination plant at Kurnell to back up our water supply.
Cost a couple billion to build. Hasn't been used much.
My observation is if you want it to rain fire up the desal plant, takes about 10 weeks for it to come out mothball and run. In that you are guaranteed drought breaking rain
Still large!