The low forming north of Sydney right now is expected to slide S/SE during Saturday, and in doing so will swing an initial E’ly fetch around to the SE and then the South. 

Easing SW swell tomorrow with a small window of decent conditions east of Melbourne, onshore Sunday through Tuesday, cleaning up from Wednesday.

Model guidance still has a peak in size for tomorrow, which is plausible - however I think the models are a little skewed at the moment. They’ve undercalled the last few days, and tomorrow are combining two swell trains out of the east and north-east, which I think is slightly inflating prospective surf size, if only a smidge.

The best part of the current synoptic setup is that it’s associated with a blocking pattern, which means very little west-east movement in the broadscale systems. And this is a good thing, as it’s going to allow the weekend's Tasman Low to meander through our swell window for quite some time.