Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 13th April)

Best Days: Tues: Large S/SE swell easing, with good winds early. Wed: easing surf with good winds early. 

Recap: Very good waves both Saturday and Sunday although the latter was much smaller and very, very inconsistent. Clean conditions both mornings with early offshore winds ahead of developing onshores. Today has started out small and reasonably clean but a strong new S/SE groundswell is building across the coast with 6ft+ sets now showing at south facing beaches (and continuing to build). Winds are however moderate southerly too. 

This week (Apr 14 - 17)

The timing of this south swell is quite unfortunate - we’re going to see it peak overnight and then trend downwards all day Tuesday. However there should still be a lot of size on offer early morning, with easy 6ft+ sets at south facing beaches (bigger in the Hunter near 8ft+) and early light westerly winds to keep surface conditions clean. Locations not open to the south will be quite a bit smaller but most beaches should have something more than worthwhile. 

Winds will swing to the NE after lunch, but shouldn’t gather too much strength. A slow drop in size will occur all day, probably in the order of a foot or two.

By Wednesday, the downwards trend will continue but there should still be plenty of waves at south facing beaches early morning (3-5ft, bigger in the Hunter). We’ll see a developing N/NE flow throughout the day - not too strong, but enough to create some surface chop - but the morning should see light NW winds in most areas. Again, expect smaller surf at non-south facing beaches.

Thursday looks a little ordinary. Conditions should be clean early morning with light onshore winds but a shallow southerly change is expected in the afternoon. The surf will mainly consist of small residual energy from Wednesday (about 2ft south facing beaches) plus a small pulse of inconsistent southerly groundswell, originating from a polar low skirting the Far Southern Ocean today (well south of Tasmania). Exposed south swell magnets may pick up a few stray 2ft sets through the day but it’s not worth getting excited about.

And to finish the working week, Friday should see a small low quality increase in short range S’ly windswell at exposed south facing beaches. We’re unlikely to see much more than 2ft to perhaps 3ft here, and with local winds generally moderate out of the southern quadrant (perhaps a brief morning W/SW flow in some areas) conditions will probably be very ordinary.

This weekend (Apr 18 - 20)

Unfortunately, there's nothing fantastic expected in the surf department this weekend.

A large high in the Tasman Sea and an approaching cold front to the west should slowly freshen NW winds on Saturday, but with no new swell we’ll be feeding off the scraps from Friday’s windswell.

As for Sunday, most models are in broad agreement that we’ll see the cold front push up the coast, with gusty southerly winds in its wake. These winds should become quite strong so they should generate quite a strong southerly windswell (maybe 5-6ft south facing beaches by late afternoon) but quality will likely be very low.

As such, the best of the weekend looks like being a Sunday afternoon surf inside protected southern corners. 

As a side note, Sunday will also see a smaller component of long period southerly swell, originating from the parent low to this front - but in its earlier stages SW of Tasmania (mainly outside of NSW’s swell window, on Friday). As such it’s not current seen as a significant source of swell - and local winds are looking dicey anyway - however I’ll review this on Wednesday in the hope that the model guidance swings a little more in our favour. 

Next week (Apr 21 onwards)

A steady progression of intense lows south of Tasmania from the weekend onwards are expected to supply plenty of south swell through next week.

The latest GFS model has suggested Sunday's southerly change could evolve into a deep Tasman Low way up off the Mid North Coast, but I'm not especially confident on this scenario right now. There's certainly some potential, and it's the ideal time of the year for these systems to develop - but let's wait and see how future model runs play out with this system. 

Elsewhere, the trades are also expected to develop later this week and into the weekend, so we may see a small E/NE swell early-mid next week (although it’ll surely be overshadowed by all of the prevailing southerly swell, and any activity from this possible Tasman Low).

Either way, the synoptic charts look very active for the long term, which is a good thing. More on Wednesday.