Southern Tasmanian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday August 11th)

Best Days: Later Saturday, early Sunday and Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny all week
• Small-mod sized W/SW swell building Sat with fresh W/SW tending late W/NW winds
• Reinforcing W/SW swell for Sun PM and Mon with NW tending strong SW winds Sun, W/NW tending SW Mon

Recap

The weekend saw easing, clean levels of swell back from 2-3ft on Saturday and then 1-2ft yesterday. This morning the waves are tiny with similar due this week.

This week and weekend (Aug 12 - 17)

There’s nothing to really work with this period with the storm track hanging too far north, up towards Western Australia while being weak in nature.

This will result in a tiny run of surf all week, with the next increase in swell possibly occurring through the weekend.

We’ve got a tricky, fractured frontal progression on the way later week, with a fetch of weakening strong to gale-force SW winds expected to be aimed just within our swell window on Friday.

This could generate a pulse of mid-period W/SW swell for the afternoon Saturday, while a secondary front projecting up and towards us through Saturday looks to generate a secondary pulse for later Sunday/Monday.

The models diverge on the size a little but we should see waves in the 2-3ft range but with tricky local winds, likely W/NW each morning. We’ll take a closer look at this through the week when the models should come more into alignment.