Southern Tasmanian Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday April 21st)

Best Days: Most days

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized SW groundswell building tomorrow, peaking later, easing Wed
• W/NW winds tomorrow AM, shifting W/SW-SW mid-late AM then gusty S
• N tending fresher E/NE winds Wed
• Smaller Thu with strengthening N/NE winds
• Small to moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Fri peaking in the PM
• N winds Fri AM ahead of a strong SW change later AM
• Small to moderate sized W/SW swell Sat, a little smaller Sun, with a reinforcing pulse for Sun PM and Mon AM
• N/NW winds Sat, N/NW Sun AM ahead of a strong S change

Recap

Saturday was the pick of the weekend with clean conditions and small, easing surf, tiny into yesterday and today.

This week and weekend (Apr 22 - 27)

After a couple of tiny days of waves we’ve got a good spike in SW groundswell due tomorrow and Wednesday.

The source, as talked about last week, was a strong polar low forming under the country yesterday, with pre-frontal gale to severe-gale NW being immediately followed by similar strength, but broader W’ly winds.

This should produce a strong SW groundswell that should build to 3-4ft during tomorrow afternoon, easing Wednesday from a similar if not slightly smaller size.

Winds were looking dicey last week thanks to a trough moving through today, leaving lingering onshore S’ly winds tomorrow, but we’re now looking at a light, local W/NW breeze, shifting W/SW-SW mid-late morning then S’ly into the afternoon.

Wednesday looks great with N’ly offshores, shifting E/NE into the afternoon and freshening.

Thursday should be smaller and with strengthening N/NE offshores.

Moving into Friday, an inconsistent, long-range W/SW groundswell is due to build, generated by a thin but great fetch of severe-gale W’ly winds that are currently on the polar shelf, east of the Heard Island region.

The swell will be inconsistent but should reach 2ft across Clifton through the day under early N winds ahead of a strong SW change later morning.

This change will be linked to a weakening frontal system moving in from the west, with some new mid-period W/SW swell coming in through Saturday, with a secondary pulse for later Sunday/Monday,

The frontal progression linked to the swells won’t really reach gale-force but we should still see a fun 2ft wave across Clifton Saturday, a little smaller Sunday, though the reinforcing swell should come in at 2ft again.

Local winds look great all day Saturday and from the N/NW with similar N-N/NW tending S winds Sunday as a trough moves through.

Longer term some new S/SW swell is possible early next week, but more on this Wednesday.