Craig

Windy, building swells this period

Southern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 15th January)

Best Days: Protected spots Sunday through Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday through Sunday next weekend

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

 

  • Building SW swell energy Sun but with strong W/SW winds, shifting W/NW on dark
  • Mix of swells Mon with a morning NW winds
  • Larger S/SW groundswell Tue AM with strong SW winds
  • Cleaner, easing S/SW swell Wed AM

Recap

Tiny surf yesterday and today, but there's plenty more action to come.

This weekend and next week (Jan 16 - 22)

Tomorrow will be the last day of tiny surf ahead of windy, building swells through Sunday and early next week as a strengthening node of the Long Wave Trough pushes east across us.

We'll see a series of polar fronts projected up and across us, with the first moving in tomorrow afternoon, bringing an increase in mid-period swell for the morning Sunday, a bit stronger into the afternoon as the periods draw out.

Size wise we should see 3ft surf in the morning, pushing to 3ft+ into the afternoon but with strong W/SW winds. The next approaching front may swing winds W/NW late, so keep an eye out for that window.

This secondary front should maintain 3ft surf through Monday, if not for the odd bigger one and under NW tending stronger W/SW winds late morning.

Into Monday evening, the strongest of the polar fronts is expected to project up and across us while deepening, with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW tending S/SW winds due to be generated.

The fetch will move fairly quickly east and have no length to the severe-gale component, resulting in a short-lived spike in S/SW swell Tuesday morning to 4-5ft or so, easing steadily through the day and back to 3-4ft through the afternoon. Wednesday looks smaller again and back to 2ft to possibly 3ft.

Winds will be strong SW on Tuesday, swinging back to the W/NW on Wednesday as the swell fades, giving into SE sea breezes.

Moving into the end of the week, a series of strong polar fronts swinging in from east of the Heard Island region should produce fun pulses of W/SW groundswell Friday through the weekend and with favourable winds. More on this in Monday's update though. Have a great weekend!