South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 29th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• More small fun tradeswell this weekend with N’ly winds increasing- strongest in the south
• More small surf from the E next week with light N-NE winds in SEQLD, stronger N/NE in NENSW
• Possible juicier developments longer term, good probability of another round of tradeswell at a minimum- check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Fun waves yesterday with a E’ly tradeswell in the 3ft range. Conditions were cleanest in SEQLD under light E-NE breezes, with stronger N-NE winds in NENSW. Size has dropped to the 2-3ft range today with winds a bit stronger onshore across the f/cast region, which is hampering wave quality. All in all, a fun week of waves.

Far from perfect but plenty of tradeswell energy on the open beaches

This weekend (Nov 30-Dec 1)

No change to the weekend f/cast. We’ll see the NE flow strengthen on Sat as a large high slips in under Tasmania and multiple troughs and a cut-off low forming over the interior tighten the pressure gradient along the coast. Tradewinds keep chugging away supplying fun surf over the weekend. We’ll still see a N-S gradient in windspeeds with lighter winds in SEQLD compared to NENSW. Either way expect mod NE winds to develop, fresh on the North Coast to Mid North Coast. A mix of E’ly tradeswell and NE windswell will supply 2-3ft surf with NE windswell building further across the southern areas of the f/cast region in the a’noon.

Very similar for Sun, as least as far as wave heights go. Wind-wise, we may see a slight NW tilt to winds in the morning, especially in SEQLD as a trough line approaches. That should see winds tilt more N’ly (compared to NE) across the entire region through the day, possibly improving wave quality a notch at some of the better backbeaches in the area. Expect pretty messy conditions across other beaches and Points under the Northerly flow.

Next week (Dec2 onwards)

Lighter winds Mon morning as the trough clears the coast.  Lighter N to NW breezes in SEQLD, tending more N-N/NE in NENSW. Fun sized Easterly swells in the 2 occ. 3ft range offer up plenty of beachie options. 

Winds then shift back to the N and look to hold a light N’ly flow through the entire working week, at this stage. We’ll revisit winds on Mon, but a shallow trough looks to stall about the NSW central coast and not affect winds across the sub-tropics. 

Fun sized Easterly swells hold in that 2 occ. 3ft range Tues with light NW breezes early tending to light N’lies so workable beachies again on the menu. We may see a small improvement in wave quality from an area of retrograding stronger breezes in the tradewind fetch near New Caledonia later Tues into Wed, offering up a few better quality sets. 

From Wed a slow easing trend is expected with size dropping down to 2ft or so into Fri and the weekend.

Further ahead we may see a weak front late next week supply a small flush of S swell next weekend.

The medium term is starting to look more muscular as move into the second week of summer. There are model suggestions of a stronger SE surge and potential tradewind band developing, potentially enhanced by a long, angled trough in the Coral Sea/Northern Tasman. EC is suggesting a powerful low moving below the Tasman in advance of that, later next weekend which would generate some sizey S swell. At the moment that is way too far in the distance to have any confidence in but the fact models are starting to hint at these developments bodes well for a little more size medium term.

We’ll see how it looks on Mon. Until then, have a great weekend!