South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Jan 8th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small fun E swells continue this  week with NE winds Tues/Wed, tending S-SE on Thurs
• Increase in E-E/SE swell from Fri into the weekend as fetch retrogrades towards east coast with winds favouring the Points
• More activity on the radar next week, as tropics becomes active, with E swell persisting at a minimum

Recap

S/SE swell Sat morning supplied windy 3ft+ surf through NENSW, a notch smaller in SEQLD where the extra S in the swell knocked off at least a foot in size. Swells trended more E’ly Sun, allowing a more even spread of 2-3ft surf across the region with mostly light E’ly winds offering up bumpy but surfable conditions. Size has eased back a smidge today with mostly 2 occ. 3ft surf and early light winds and glassy conditions now being scuffed up by a light/mod NE flow and confining clean surf to regional backbeaches. 

Glassy peaks under grey skies before the N'ly got up

This week (Jan 8-12)

We’ve got a very unstable pattern as the MJO sweeps across Northern Australia and convective activity penetrates the country via a long trough and NW cloud band, linking up with a developing low off the North-East coast of Tasmania. Once the Tasmania low clears there picture we’ll see monsoonal activity develop through the South Pacific/Coral Sea, likely with a broad area of low pressure squeezing pressure gradients along a long fetch between the North Island and near Island chains and retrograding back towards the East coast through the second half of this week. Easterly swells will favour the sub-tropics for size. Longer term is starting to look very active as well. Let’s look at the specifics.

In the short run and we’ve got a couple of days of N’ly winds ahead, with best conditions at backbeaches. Morning winds should be light enough for open beaches but expect a big of N’ly wobble, especially Wed. No real change to the surf outlook. 

Fun sized E’ly swells hold in the 2-3ft range Tues, slowly backing down a notch through Wed. 

The retrograding broad trough/low in the South Pacific slot and a new high moving into the Tasman will see winds shift S-SE on Thurs. We’ll pencil in a low point for the week, for now, with just background 1-2ft swells. A late increase in new E-E/SE swell can’t be ruled out (Fri is more likely) but we’ll finesse that on Wed.

Rounding off the working week is a more substantial increase from the retrograding E’ly fetch in the South Pacific. Models are suggesting surf in the 3ft range but it’s likely they are undervaluing size so we’ll pencil in 3-4ft for now (with some possible larger sets at E swell magnets like Outside Snapper). SE winds will be primo for the Points with a few raggedy semi-sheltered beachbreaks on offer for the less fussy looking for a lower head count.

This weekend (Jan 13-14)

Plenty of E-E/SE swell on tap as the retrograding fetch reaches maturity- likely Fri- with Sat seeing a peak in size. There’s still some model divergence with GFS suggesting troughs of low pressure stalling off the SEQLD coast bringing an increase in short range SE swell into the mix. At any rate we’ll see S-SE winds Sat with at least 3-5ft of swell, grading smaller into protected Points.

Sun looks a notch smaller as winds in the swell window lay down but overall E’ly swell energy should maintain at least 3-4ft of size, smaller into protected points. 

Next week (Jan 15 onwards)

OK, lots of action on the charts next week but with lots of model divergence and poor run to run consistency we’ll be revising through the week. High pressure straddling and E of New Zealand will have set up a long, tradewind fetch in the South Pacific with the extremity of that fetch extending into the Northern Tasman. 

The basic building blocks of a large high pressure belt under the continent and increasing tropical instability seem locked in. The curve ball is potential toughness in the Tasman, which EC suggests will anchor a long SE-E/SE fetch through the Central/Northern Tasman next week, bringing swell from that direction under an onshore flow. 

GFS suggests a weaker trough with small amounts of E-E/SE swell- likely 2-3ft- through to the middle of next week. Potentially a low may form in the Coral Sea near New Caledonia, offering another boost in E swell later next week.

GFS suggests a deep trough may form a surface low east of Tasmania mid next week (see below), with a possible spike in S swell later next week if the system deepens and forms S’ly gales in the Tasman.

There’s also some model runs suggesting a low or even tropical cyclone forming off the North QLD coast later next week.

Like I said, lots to keep an eye on as the tropics enters a more active phase and the Tasman bubbles up along with it.

For now, it’s another working week of fun trade-wind style surf ,with a nice boost to end the week.

Check back Wed for the latest.