South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 29th Nov)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing swells later this week, back to small, weak E-NE swells with N’ly winds 
• Small weak surf extending into the weekend 
• Small S-S/SE swell Mon/Tues but low confidence in specifics- check back Wed for updates
• Tracking potential tropical depression or TC near Solomon Is later next week, too early to determine surf potential, check back Fri

Recap

Small and weak yesterday for the most part, with light N’ly winds all day. Small S swell filled in across NENSW topping out around 2-3ft at S swell magnets. Today has seen a variance across the region with Sunshine Coast beachies benefitting from an increase in E/NE swell to 3ft and offshore winds, while the rest of the region is still mostly onshore, scrappy 2-3ft. 

Sunny Coast beachies got a swell bump and offshore winds this morning

This week (Nov 29- Dec 1)

A dynamic weather event is underway as a complex inland low approaches the Far South Coast of NSW, expected to enter the Tasman Sea tomorrow. A moist NE-E/NE infeed into the low is generating plenty of rain (heaviest falls on the South Coast) and building swells from the same direction. A smaller trough with a similar but smaller NE infeed off the sub-tropical coast is now moving southwards. Once the small increase from that system dissipates tomorrow, we are back to small weak swells with a N’ly flow for the rest of the week.

In the short run as the low moves away o/night we’ll see easing surf from the E/NE with a few 2ft sets easing during the day and light N/NW winds tending N-N/NE during the day. There should be some workable beachies/shorey under morning light winds.

Offshore W-NW winds Fri as the return flow from the low drifts up over the sub-tropics. Those winds will tend N’ly through the day, likely N/NE in the a’noon and stronger south of Ballina. Not much surf to work with, another day of small, weak surf in the 1-2ft range.

This weekend (Dec 2-3)

No significant swell sources to speak of this weekend, with a low off the South Coast located too far south to be a source of swell for the region and just a weak NE flow extending up the QLD coast into Fraser Island longitudes. Some minor differences in size are possible, but we’re talking 1-1.5ft versus 1-2ft. Bring a big board or a fav groveller to the beach. Mostly N’ly winds although a northwards moving trough may bring S-SE winds to the Coffs-Yamba stretch.

SW-S winds become more widespread on Sun, so the tiny surf on offer should be clean, or cleanish for the early before winds swing SE during the day. Similar size surf as Sat so bring appropriate equipment.

Next week (Dec 4 onwards)

A reconstituted low and a front looks to drift NE in the Tasman early next week with high pressure moving East of Tasmania Mon. A resultant S'ly then SE fetch through the middle Tasman isn’t too strong as far as windspeeds go, but should see workable surf in the 2-3ft range Mon, likely extending into Tues.

A S’ly flow Mon should tend variable Tues  then N’ly on Wed as another troughy area approaches Central NSW. We’ll revise that on Wed.

Further ahead and models are mixed with GFS suggesting a moderate frontal passage and a S swell later next week.

EC maintains a weak, troughy pattern from mid week onwards. Not much point putting confidence in either scenario with the instability of this current troughy regime. 

In the South Pacific the previously active area near the Solomons that has already spawned two tropical cyclones looks to flare up again next week with convective activity enhanced by a cross-equatorial flow. We may see a new tropical depression or even cyclone form later next week, with uncertain surf potential at this very early stage. There’s some model guidance that, at a minimum, we may see an enhanced trade flow in the Coral Sea later next week as the depression drifts southwards. 

Let’s see how it looks on Fri.