South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 13th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Large E’ly swells from Ex TC Gabrielle maintain solid surf through Tues, slowly easing Wed with generally light/favourable winds
• Fun, clean leftovers Thurs/Fri with morning offshores likely
• Small SSE swell pulse later Fri, extends into Sat with good morning winds
• Easing surf Sun with NE winds
• Small, mixed bag into early next week with variable winds-depending on troughs
• Tropics remaining active- checking tradewind fetch next week and possible low pressure- stay tuned for updates

Recap

Swell filled weekend as TC Gabrielle coasted through the swell window. Sat saw early 3-4ft surf across SEQLD, building to 4-5ft during the day with dreamy light SW-SE winds. Sunday built further with 4-5ft surf early, building to 6-8ft during the day. Early light/variable winds tended NE across most of the region with the Mid North Coast in a light wind sweet spot as a trough stalled near Coffs. SE winds have now crept north of the border with strong surf ranging from 8ft+ at some North Coast spots (biggest around Yamba with 10ft surf reported) to 3-5ft on the Points. We’ll see slowly easing surf from ex TC Gabrielle through the front half of this week.  

Sunday morning

Sunday afternoon

This week (Feb 13-17)

Ex TC Gabrielle is still the main game as far as swell production goes. The former cyclone is now a large sub-tropical storm (SS) slow moving near the top of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a broad but short fetch of gales to severe gales extending off the west coast of the North Island, slightly off axis for the East Coast but maintaining a strong swell regime in the short term. A coastal trough along the NSW Coast is being pushed north as a new weak high pressure ridge builds in, bringing light SE winds until mid-week, with a variable pattern setting up from then into the weekend. Should be plenty of periods of favourable winds this week.

In the short run and winds should be generally favourable through tomorrow as a large troughy area stalls off SEQLD. Light morning offhores should tend light S-SE through the day, with the exception of the Mid North Coast which may see stronger SE-E winds. Strong E swell continues through tomorrow, with similar size surf to today, possibly just a half notch off todays peak. Expect surf to 6ft+, with some rogue bigger sets in the 8ft range likely although becoming less likely through the a’noon. 

S-SE winds are expected for Wed, as the  trough area lingers about the SEQLD Coast, potentially forming a weak, closed low. Early light SW winds, tend mod/fresh SE through the day. We’ll be on the shoulder of the cyclone swell with early sets to 4-5ft with some rogue 6 footers still possible from a  reinforcing pulse of SE swell, declining in size and consistency through the day to 3-4ft with the odd 5 footer still possible. 

By Thurs we’ll see weak pressure gradients with lighter winds- early W  before light/mod SE-E breezes kick in. A mixed bag is on offer with some residual E swell leftovers to 3-4ft and a short period signal of SSE swell to 2ft from a trough in the Central Tasman. That should open up options for fun beachies through the day.

Friday sees a weak elongated high pressure moving NE in the Tasman bringing continued light land and sea breezes across our f/cast region. The trough which we mentioned is expected to set up near the South Island and form a decent fetch of slightly off axis S-SSE winds extending back into the Tasman which should see some mid-period SSE swell to 2-3ft with some bigger 3ft+ sets at S swell magnets  through the a’noon.

This weekend (Feb 18-19)

Easing swells expected this weekend. Sat sees a small mixed bag of mostly SSE swell to 2-3ft early, easing during the day with continuing E-NE winds after morning land breezes. 

Sun is expected to see more light winds tending NE with a S’ly change reaching the Coffs area later in the day as a trough pushes up the coast. Not much surf is expected- just small SSE swell leftovers to 2ft.

Next week (Feb 20 onwards)

Looks like another trough approaches early next week as Sundays trough dissipates with NE winds quickly intensifying Mon and pushing up NE windswell into the 2-3ft+ range on the Mid North Coast, smaller elsewhere.

That should see another S’ly change possibly late Tues (althugh it may stall on the Mid North Coast) before things settle down briefly, although the troughy pattern suggests more wind changes.

A passing front may send some small S swell by mid week without much size and only showing at reliable S facing beaches.

Further north we may see more developments with tropical depressions in the Coral Sea. We’ll just flag this for now and see how it shapes up this week-any surf will be later next week at the earliest.

A long tradewind fetch is more useful for the sub-tropics and we’d expect to start to see some small E/SE swell filter down from this source mid/late next week.

We’ll see how all those sources shape up on Wed. Seeya then.