South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 8th July)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Nice kick in S swell Fri for NENSW, smaller in SEQLD with offshore winds
• Small clean surf Sat, favouring NENSW
• Small clean surf Sun AM (tiny in SEQLD), with an a’noon increase in strong SSE swell for NENSW
• Strong SSE groundswell Mon, with SW-S winds
• Easing SSE groundswell Tues with clean conditions
• More S swell expected later next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

This has really been an event favouring NENSW, with size yesterday in the 3ft+ range, and mostly clean conditions for most of the day. SEQLD saw much less size- in the 2ft range at Goldy swell magnets and smaller on the Sunshine Coast. Size has increased south of the border today with 4ft sets at S exposed breaks, smaller 2ft on the Goldy and tiny on the Sunshine Coast. Conditions were A-grade with an offshore flow across the entire sub-tropical coast-line.

Plenty of swell in NENSW

Getting smaller on the Gold Coast

And tiny on the Sunshine Coast

This weekend (July 9-10)

No great changes to the weekend f/cast.

We are still under the influence of a slow moving, complex Tasman Low (formerly ECL), a strong high in the Bight and a weak trough/low forming near Tasmania. The new trough/low is generating gales out of Bass Strait and up towards the South Coast. The main low is drifting towards the South Island and intensifying today, with gales to severe gales expected to retrograde NW back into the Tasman Sea (see below), generating a large swell for Sun/Mon. 

Most of the weekend will be prior to this pulse so we are looking at a blend of S’ly quarter swells both days with offshore winds generated by the position of the low/high combination. Expect surf in the 3ft+ range early at S facing beaches in NENSW on Sat, smaller 2ft on the Gold Coast and 1-2 at S facing and Northern corners on the Sunshine Coast. Early W winds are likely to swing more SW through the a’noon, scuffing up the more exposed S facing coastlines.

Small clean surf from the southern quadrant continues into Sun, down a notch into the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW and less than 2ft on the Gold Coast, tiny on the Sunshine Coast.

We’ll see surf get very solid Sun PM across the Mid North to North Coast, as long period SSE swell builds in from the retrograding low near the South Island. This should be noticeable mid a’noon on the Mid North Coast, filling in right before dark across the North Coast. Some 5-6ft sets are on the agenda, if the timing if advantageous to your area.

Next week (July 11 onwards)

Sundays pulse extends into Mon with plenty of size. We’ll expect to  see solid 6-8ft surf at S exposed breaks Mon morning with outer Bommies and Bars in the 10ft+ range in NENSW. Even SEQLD should see solid 4-5ft surf at S exposed breaks. Winds will be perfect for regional Points, with a W/SW to SW flow, extending into mid-late morning before tending light S’ly and laying down as the low moves away and weak high pressure fills in across NSW.

By Tuesday we should have dreamy conditions with light offshores on offer, likely tending to light N’lies in QLD. Strong mid-period leftovers in the 5-6ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD should open up a range of good to great surf across the region. All day offshores will preside over a slowly easing swell. Definitely a day to pencil in.

By mid-week another front is expected to arrive and interact with lingering troughiness in the Tasman to form a new low, although much weaker and more mobile than the current event. Models have been inconsistent run to run on this event, so it’s likely we’ll need to revise substantially on Mon.

For now, we are looking at a low spot in size Wed, though with residual swell holding in the 3-4ft range in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, with winds freshening from the SW as the front pushes through and kicks off the new low.

A thin fetch of SSW/S winds adjacent to the coast is expected to see a moderate S swell Thurs, in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD.

The front and low is then expected to move away quickly, leading to a rapidly declining swell signal from Fri into next weekend, July 16/17.

We’ll be tracking a very strong frontal progression/polar low through that period, with a view for more S swell into the week following July16/17.

Check back Mon for a full update and have a great weekend!