Temporarily back to the small stuff, then it kicks from the south again
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 24th June)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Easing E'ly swell all weekend with light winds
- Tiny leftovers Monday
- Building, windy surf Tues
- Better surf Wed/Thurs as direction goes S/SE thru' SE and winds slowly ease
- Large S'ly groundswell for Northern NSW next weekend
Thursday delivered a powerful clean easterly groundswell with 6ft sets at exposed coasts, and smaller waves along the points. Conditions were clean for most of the day with generally light winds. Size eased from around the 4ft mark this morning and is now closer to 3ft. The points became affected by a swing in the wind to the NW, but open beaches have remained clean.
This weekend (June 25-26)
No change to the weekend forecast.
We’ve got no new swell sources on the radar - the front pushing off Tasmania right now is too weak, and too westerly in alignment - so we’ll see a smaller version of today on Saturday, and then an incrementally smaller version of Saturday, on Sunday.
Expect very inconsistent 3ft sets at the regional swell magnets on Saturday morning (centred around the Northern NSW region, a touch smaller elsewhere), down to 2ft by the afternoon, then from 1-2ft early Sunday to 1ft by the afternoon.
We’ll see smaller surf across the points, though conditions should be clean both days with generally light variable winds and weak afternoon sea breezes.
So, make the most of early Saturday as it’ll have the most size.
Next week (June 27 onwards)
Monday will kick off the working week with tiny residual energy at most coasts, and small levels of south swell at south facing beaches on the Mid North Coast, sourced from a poorly aligned front crossing Tasmania on Sunday morning.
During the morning, a low will form in the western Tasman Sea, driving gusty southerly winds along the Mid North Coast into the afternoon ahead of an overnight arrival into SE Qld. We’ll then see southerlies persist into Tuesday morning, then ease through the day.
This low should generate a punchy local south swell that's expected to reach 4-5ft at Northern NSW’s south swell magnets on Tuesday, though quality will be low at these spots and sheltered locations will see much smaller (but cleaner) surf. The relatively low swell periods won’t allow for much size along the SE Qld outer points, so expect small surf here (inconsistent 1-2ft) however exposed northern ends should see windy 3-4ft waves.
As the low matures through Tuesday and moves further east, we’ll see a broader SE fetch develop across the central Tasman Sea. In fact, current expectations are that the Tasman low will merge with a small trough from the Coral Sea and intensify into an impressive mid-latitude low near New Zealand’s North Island overnight into Wednesday.
This should create better S/SE tending SE swells for Wednesday and Thursday, biggest along the Northern NSW Coast with 4-5ft+ sets but also showing nicely in SE Qld with 2-3ft sets across the outer points (bigger at exposed northern ends). Thursday looks to be the better day as the winds will have become light and variable; Wednesday should be pretty good for the points though under a moderate SW tending S/SE breeze.
The long term outlook is suggesting a deep polar low will push under Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday, driving a powerful front into the Tasman Sea into Friday and generating a very large sustained southerly groundswell event for the NSW coast next weekend (smaller in SE Qld but still likely some fun waves).
Tune back in on Monday to see how the models are resolving this pattern. Have a great weekend!