Downgraded a notch, but still strong E swell this week with good winds
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 20th June)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Fun SE pulse for the MNC Tues
- Decent E/SE swell for Northern NSW Wed (smaller SE Qld)
- Solid, powerful long period E'ly groundswell late Wed/Thurs, easing Fri, clean with light winds
- Small clean leftovers Sat, becoming tiny Sun
- Watching charts next week for possible low pressure development, stay tuned for updates
Long period S/SE groundswell kicked hard Fri a’noon and maintained plenty of size into Sat across NENSW, with sets to 4-5ft and plenty of grunt with the extra period. SEQLD saw smaller 3ft surf with some magnets seeing 4ft sets. Conditions were clean most of the day under light winds, tending to light SE breezes in the a’noon. Size dipped a notch Sun with sets to 3-4ft in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQld with clean morning conditions, marred by stronger S to SE winds in the a’noon.
Today has seen the disappearance out of the mix of long period S/SE swell trains with a pretty scrappy short period blend of 2ft surf across most of the region under showers and light S’ly winds.
We’ll be looking to the E this week, details below.
This week (June 20-24)
We’ve got a nice chunky 1033 hPa High slow moving at very southerly latitude, roughly triangulated between Tasmania and the South Island. As well as a precursor SE fetch adjacent to the South Island it is now squeezing pressure gradients with a compact, but deep low, which is currently forming gale force fetches out of Cook Strait and just north of the North Island. Compared to Fridays model runs the fetch now is a little more mobile, weaker and rotates faster out of the swell producing phase, which will see a bit of a downgrade. Still some good waves on offer though.
In the short run, surface conditions will be on the improve as a front followed by a high moving through the interior bring a return to a weak synoptic environment. That will see a period of light SW winds early, before S’lies kick in, before a general easing in windspeeds through the a’noon. General mid period SE swell will kick up a notch into the 3ft range through Tues. Should be some fun beachbreaks around early with some small peelers on offer once the S’ly kicks in.
Wednesday looks an interesting day. General mid period SE swell through the morning holds surf in the 3ft range with light land breezes offering good conditions. Through the a’noon we’ll see a muscling up in size, first from the Cook Strait fetch with sets to 4ft. A late pulse of stronger E/SE swell with bigger 4-5ft sets looks likely to arrive right on dark. A late evening glass off is definitely on the cards as winds drop out making it worthwhile to gamble on the pulse arriving before it gets too dark to surf.
Thursday is definitely the diamond in the week. Solid E/SE swell, while down on Friday’s f/cast will still see sets in the 4-5ft range., slowly easing through the day. Winds will be just about perfect: light SW’ly, tending to light S to SE in the a’noon. Thursday will definitely be a day worth getting in the water.
End of the working week sees another day of offshore winds, mostly straight W’ly. Perfect to make the most of a dying swell. Expect a few 3-4ft sets early, with size easing through the day, back down to the 2ft+ range by close of play.
This weekend (June 25-26)
Small weekend of waves ahead, so if you’ve got dings to fix or lawns to mow it’s looking good for that, especially on Sunday.
We’ll be well and truly on the other side of this E swell by Sat and there’ll be just a couple of stray 2-3ft sets on offer across open beaches, becoming less consistent through the day.
Sunday looks even smaller with size really bottoming out into the 2ft range or less during the day.
Conditions will be pristine both days with light land and sea breezes on offer as high pressure at northerly latitudes and weak fronts supply dreamy conditions.
Next week (June 27 onwards)
Not much action to start next week. Monday looks tiny with light winds from the W early, tending S’ly as a small, troughy low forms off the coast.
That should see an onshore pattern develop into Tuesday with the trough sitting on top of a high moving into the Tasman and a small increase in short period SE-ESE swell and winds from the same direction.
Into the middle of next week and there is a lot of instability expected. Anther broad, troughy area of low pressure may form off the North Coast or SEQLD, possibly coalescing into a more substantial surface low later next week, although with uncertain surf potential at this stage.
There’s also another cold front and very strong low expected to enter the lower Tasman during this period, possibly generating a solid S swell or even interacting with the more tropical derived surface low we just mentioned and forming a deep low off the Southern NSW Coast (see below).
To be honest, it looks quite explosive so check back in on Wed and we’ll update the prognosis.