Downgraded a notch, but still strong E swell this week with good winds

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 20th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Fun SE pulse for the MNC Tues
  • Decent E/SE swell for Northern NSW Wed (smaller SE Qld)
  • Solid, powerful long period E'ly groundswell late Wed/Thurs, easing Fri, clean with light winds
  • Small clean leftovers Sat, becoming tiny Sun
  • Watching charts next week for possible low pressure development, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Long period S/SE groundswell kicked hard Fri a’noon and maintained plenty of size into Sat across NENSW, with sets to 4-5ft and plenty of grunt with the extra period. SEQLD saw smaller 3ft surf with some magnets seeing 4ft sets. Conditions were clean most of the day under light winds, tending to light SE breezes in the a’noon. Size dipped a notch Sun with sets to 3-4ft in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQld with clean morning conditions, marred by stronger S to SE winds in the a’noon.

Today has seen the disappearance out of the mix of long period S/SE swell trains with a pretty scrappy short period blend of 2ft surf across most of the region under showers and light S’ly winds.

We’ll be looking to the E this week, details below. 

Tasty peaks Sun morning

This week (June 20-24)

We’ve got a nice chunky 1033 hPa High slow moving at very southerly latitude, roughly triangulated between Tasmania and the South Island. As well as a precursor SE fetch adjacent to the South Island it is now squeezing pressure gradients with a compact, but deep low, which is currently forming gale force fetches out of Cook Strait and just north of the North Island. Compared to Fridays model runs the fetch now is a little more mobile, weaker and rotates faster out of the swell producing phase, which will see a bit of a downgrade. Still some good waves on offer though.

In the short run, surface conditions will be on the improve as a front followed by a high moving through the interior bring a return to a weak synoptic environment. That will see a period of light SW winds early, before S’lies kick in, before a general easing in windspeeds through the a’noon. General mid period SE swell will kick up a notch into the 3ft range through Tues. Should be some fun beachbreaks around early with some small peelers on offer once the S’ly kicks in.

Wednesday looks an interesting day. General mid period SE swell through the morning holds surf in the 3ft range with light land breezes offering good conditions. Through the a’noon we’ll see a muscling up in size, first from the Cook Strait fetch with sets to 4ft. A late pulse of stronger E/SE swell with bigger 4-5ft sets looks likely to arrive right on dark. A late evening glass off is definitely on the cards as winds drop out making it worthwhile to gamble on the pulse arriving before it gets too dark to surf. 

Thursday is definitely the diamond in the week. Solid E/SE swell, while down on Friday’s f/cast will still see sets in the 4-5ft range., slowly easing through the day. Winds will be just about perfect: light SW’ly, tending to light S to SE in the a’noon. Thursday will definitely be a day worth getting in the water.

End of the working week sees another day of offshore winds, mostly straight W’ly. Perfect to make the most of a dying swell. Expect a few 3-4ft sets early, with size easing through the day, back down to the 2ft+ range by close of play.

This weekend (June 25-26)

Small weekend of waves ahead, so if you’ve got dings to fix or lawns to mow it’s looking good for that, especially on Sunday.

We’ll be well and truly on the other side of this E swell by Sat and there’ll be just a couple of stray 2-3ft sets on offer across open beaches, becoming less consistent through the day. 

Sunday looks even smaller with size really bottoming out into the 2ft range or less during the day.

Conditions will be pristine both days with light land and sea breezes on offer as high pressure at northerly latitudes and weak fronts supply dreamy conditions. 

Next week (June 27 onwards)

Not much action to start next week. Monday looks tiny with light winds from the W early, tending S’ly as a small, troughy low forms off the coast.

That should see an onshore pattern develop into Tuesday with the trough sitting on top of a high moving into the Tasman and a small increase in short period SE-ESE swell and winds from the same direction.

Into the middle of next week and there is a lot of instability expected. Anther broad, troughy area of low pressure may form off the North Coast or SEQLD, possibly coalescing into a more substantial surface low later next week, although with uncertain surf potential at this stage.

There’s also another cold front and very strong low expected to enter the lower Tasman during this period, possibly generating a solid S swell or even interacting with the more tropical derived surface low we just mentioned and forming a deep low off the Southern NSW Coast (see below).

To be honest, it looks quite explosive so check back in on Wed and we’ll update the prognosis.

Seeya then.

Comments

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Monday, 20 Jun 2022 at 7:21pm

Yeh bring it you beauty!

plops's picture
plops's picture
plops Monday, 20 Jun 2022 at 8:35pm

Scrumptious

pablosunsun's picture
pablosunsun's picture
pablosunsun Monday, 20 Jun 2022 at 8:43pm

Where’s Fluagie and Mirch ?

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Monday, 20 Jun 2022 at 9:07pm

Could this be the ECL that has been on the cards once increased tropical SST’s/troughiness over the past few months gets the chance to interact with an upper cold pool from a front out of southern latitudes? Could get interesting.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 11:27am

Visiting N NSW in about two weeks. Short arm 2/2, and long arm springy?

Thanks for your advice.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 11:36am

Will be plenty. Good luck. Hope you score.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 11:40am

Thanks, Sol

First trip away from NZ since forever. Whatever happens surfwise it'll feel like scoring :-)

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 9:27am

3/2 steamer. It sucks getting cold. Can always flush a bit of water through if too hot.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 12:07pm

.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 12:02pm

Cheers, Detective Udo :-)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 12:08pm

You'll need a steamer for dawnies IB.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 12:11pm

Fair call. Just thought coming out of NZ winter he’d be pretty conditioned for our ‘cold’

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 12:14pm

Probs right.
He'll be out there in boardies.

At least from mid-morning onwards.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 12:50pm

Cold shouldn’t be in your vernacular up there. Cool maybe. Up there last week and there were some crisp mornings on land with those offshores but in water yum yums.

One dude even had a session in speedos

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 12:43pm

Just rode a 6’1”.

Surfing is harder than I remember!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 1:01pm

Injuries sorted?

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 1:29pm

Calf is about 90%. First day injury free for seven weeks yesterday. Lasted a few hours into the day before I got overexcited pruning trees and hurt my back again . Chainsawing above your head whilst tired and dragging huge branches around probably wasn’t the smartest idea. Nothing major. Body is still asymmetrical after hobbling around for so long , so more hurt to be expected until I’ve addressed every issue. Been going fckn hard on getting better though. Sleeping on the floor for a while and that’s given a massive improvement.

Surfing is sooooo good for mental state.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 1:51pm

Chainsawing is haaaard work. And yes to your last statement.

FR, I was going to bring my 3/2 for cold mornings, but I just wore it today and it leaks like a fucken sieve. Might be better off in the short arm 2/2.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 2:10pm

With a 2mm vest as backup.
Got a 3/2 that’s threadbare in places and the vest sorts it out.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 21 Jun 2022 at 12:45pm

7'0 D.S. as a Twinnie will make it easier

Matilda0213's picture
Matilda0213's picture
Matilda0213 Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 10:13am

Is there any way to read the timing of these E swells (buoys) or are we just estimating from wind speeds at the source?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 10:24am

Not until they hit the local buoys.
I use proxy estimates at Norfolk Island but they are not observations or buoy readings.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 10:43am

What’s a proxy estimate at Norfolk?

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 11:54am

We still expecting 3-4ft waves at goldy this arvo? Gonna bail on work early to try and score a late sesh if so!

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 11:56am

also, what time exactly will the first 3 foot set arrive, what will the water temp be and how strong will the wind be.

While you're there, tell me where the best hightide banks are.

TIA

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 12:13pm

Man stfu, simply asking if we're expecting that bump in swell this arvo. Why you heckling me over nothing.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 12:19pm

Part of the fun is rocking up and finding waves. Take the arvo off work anyway. You might be pleasantly surprised or if not, at least you're not at work.

Matilda0213's picture
Matilda0213's picture
Matilda0213 Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 12:24pm

Fark that came across as a bit overly aggressive Burleigh maybe better to not comment next time

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 12:31pm

Normally i do just cruise around checking beaches but i'm flat out at work at the moment, , so trying to decide whether its worth finishing up early and trying to score then working late tonight, or just finish at dark as normal. Regardless, only trying to get some waves after a few weeks of not scoring much.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 12:34pm

Wave buoys starting to show leading edge of forerunners. The longer range gruntier groundswell that I assume Steve was calling 3-4ft from today doesn’t look to be in the water until mid afternoonish from what I’m seeing. And even then given the swell direction don’t be expecting the upper end of this size at the protected points IMO. Dusk looks your best bet for some juicier albeit inconsistent sets.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 2:04pm

Nice one, cheers mate

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 12:41pm

It's in the water, very slow. Tide will be a factor.

DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet's picture
DudeSweetDudeSweet Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 12:53pm

There’s been good swell here over the past couple of hours. Wind is up and into it. Can’t see a glass off happening this arvo and even if it drops it’ll still going to be seasick.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 1:02pm

Yeah, copy that.
That little cold front is just pushing further north than expected, tagging MNC with S'lies.

still light winds north of Yamba.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 1:34pm

Just surfed a GC beachie. Can see the sets but still only small.
Wind will be a factor this afternoon

saltman's picture
saltman's picture
saltman Wednesday, 22 Jun 2022 at 6:53pm

Late Wed afternoon around the exposed border breakwalls the swell was kicking in