South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 10th June)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Solid S'ly swell Fri PM (only small in SE Qld)
• Very large S'ly swell (Nthn NSW) this weekend, with plenty of fun waves in SE Qld
• Large S swell peaking Mon across the region with light winds perfect for regional Points
• Offshore winds through the entire period, with a few curve balls of NW/N wind thrown in.
• Plenty more strong S swell through to mid next week at least, with offshore winds
• Last pulse of S swell Thurs PM, easing to tiny/flat next weekend

Recap

Straight offshore winds have been blowing constantly since Wed and straight S swells have been in the water with them. Size yesterday was in 3-4ft range in NENSW, with some good to great surf on hand. SEQLD S facing beaches briefly fired up, although periods of devil wind (NW-N) made life difficult. Smaller surf has been on the menu today- inconsistent 3ft in NENSW, with smaller 1-1.5ft surf in SEQLD. A stronger pulse is working it’s way north later this a’noon.

S swell getting north of the border with some devil wind on it

This weekend (June 11-12)

Still on track for plenty of strong S swell this weekend. Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) passes show gales to severe gales extending down to 55S with a tighter core of storm force winds just emerging from behind Tasmania as it tracks NE into the Tasman Sea. The synoptic flow from the fronts and Southern Gyre remains W to W/SW and that will continue all weekend with plenty of wind chill to boot.

Sat starts with plenty of swell in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD. Through the a’noon we should see a noticeable muscling up with sets up a foot or so, more noticeable at S exposures as new longer period S swell fills in. This new S swell pulse should be in on the MNC lunch-time, Ballina area mid-arvo and QLD border just before dark.

This size continues on overnight Sat before holding into Sun morning,  easing through the mid-morning-mid-arvo, before the next big pulse arrives. This one will have teeth as storm force winds generate longer swell periods. We should see a marked increase from late a’noon on the MNC, filling in across the far North Coast before dark. Unlikely to show in SEQLD before close of play.

Next week (June 13 onwards)

Sundays late pulse extends through Mon, with a peak in size expected to last through the day. Winds swinging W through SW before tilting S/SW again as the front passes, before easing right back to a possible late seabreeze. Strong, long period sets in the 6-8ft range with bigger surf at deep-water adjacent reefs are expected in NENSW, with SEQLD seeing surf in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches and Northern Corners.

Winds should drop right out Tues as weak high pressure moves over the area and we get a light land and seabreeze effect. Those dreamy conditions will prevail over still strong S swell in the 6ft range, bigger 8ft at S facing reefs, and SEQLD seeing strong sets in the 4ft+ range at S exposed breaks. Expect an a’noon NE seabreeze on Tues and size to ease through the day, back to 4-5ft in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD.

Winds remain offshore for Wed and Thurs- but we’re expecting less swell from the bottom of the gyre under New Zealand- as it moves off a bit more quickly than models anticipated on Wed. 

Wed will still see surf in the 4ft range at S facing breaks in NENSW, easing back during the day with some 2ft sets in SEQLD.

A last little kick in size Thurs is expected, boosting surf back into the 4-5ft range after lunch, before easing during the day. SEQLD should see some clean 2-3ft sets, with bigger 3ft+ surf at a few select swell magnets.

By the end of next week we’ll see surf easing more fully, down to 2-3ft Fri and then tiny for next weekend. 

Into the medium term and we’ll be tracking a potential sub-tropical low forming in the South Pacific slow between New Caledonia and the North Island as well as SE fetch off the South Island which shows some potential. Both of these are right at the end of model projections so we’ll see how that are shaping up on Mon.

For now, all eyes to the South. Have a great weekend and seeya Monday!