South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 28th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Increase in E/NE swell Tues as low winds up off QLD coast
• E/NE swell peaks Wed AM, eases through the day with winds better in SEQLD
• Mix of E swell and fast rising S swell Thurs PM as low deepens off Central NSW Coast
• Surf becoming large from the S Fri with SW to S winds
• Large S favouring NENSW foir size, Sat and Sun with light winds in the AM
• Slow roll-off in size early/mid next week as low drifts to the NE and S'ly winds establish
• Tracking the tropics for potential depression or cyclone later next week, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Mostly tiny surf over the weekend, with a light wind flow for the most part. Saturday saw surf in the 1-1.5ft range with a few surfable 2ft sets at open stretches. Light offshore winds tended S to SE through the day. Sunday saw a slight kick in size with some S swell added to the mix across NENSW, although topping out around 2-3ft. Light winds tended E/NE in the a’noon, with some lighter wind patches around squalls. This morning ha seen a glassy 2ft+ of surf from the E with rain and light NE winds. Water quality is again deteriorating as heavy rain impacts the region, with La Niña refusing to budge.

A few small clean peaks this morning as the rain comes down

This week (Mar 28-Apr1)

OK, it’s going to be a wild week so lets look at the moving parts and sketch out the order of events, whilst acknowledging that it will be a highly dynamic outlook requiring fine tuning as the troughs, front, upper trough and expected eventual large surface low all interact.

A coastal trough lies along most of the NSW  Coast, with a pronounced deepening off the North Coast. A parallel Monsoon Trough extends down the Coral Sea and out to New Caledonia. High pressure over New Zealand is feeding very moist E’ly winds into these trough systems. The northern end of the coastal trough system is expected to deepen into a surface low through tonight into tomorrow, off the SEQLD coast, moving south through Wednesday.

Overnight Wed into Thursday the surface low is expected to interact with a cold front to form a major, winter-calibre Tasman low generating strong to gale force winds and building a large to XL surf from the SE late this week into the weekend.

In the short run and with the low winding up offshore from SEQLD, with a fetch of E to E/NE winds feeding into it, we’ll see a chunky E/NE to E swell build through tomorrow. Winds will be a bit unruly to start, from the E , but should tend more SE through the day as the low starts to move southwards. The exception is the Sunshine Coast which should get the offshore outflow from the low and see SW to W winds develop through the day.

Expect size to build from 3-4ft up into the 4-5ft range during the day.

By Wed the surface low is expected to be off the Coffs Coast and still moving south. That will place the area of offshore winds down to the Gold Coast, possibly extending further south during the day, where SW winds are likely to develop as far south as Coffs. 

The E/NE swell will hold in the 4-5ft range before easing through the day, with the easing trend setting in earlier in SEQLD. Expect surf size to ease into the 3ft range during the day. Wednesday is potentially a very good day across large parts of the region.

A cold front is expected to tip the edge of Tasmania and enter the Tasman Sea on Wed which is expected to create an explosive deepening of the surface low off the Mid North Coast to Central NSW coast later Wed into Thurs morning as it responds to the vorticity of cold air over warm water.

Things escalate on Thursday, especially in the South of the f/cast region. The front and the deepening low sees a thin fetch of strong to gale force SSW to S winds develop along the Central NSW Coastline.

 By lunch-time the low will be winding up rapidly- possibly bombing- with severe gales to storm force winds developing off the NSW Coast and extending down through the lower Tasman. Most of that initial fetch is in the Hunter Curve swell shadow but we will see some S swell start to show across the NSW Coast, up into the 4-5ft range during the a’noon at S exposed breaks. E’ly swell in the 3ft range will also be in the mix. By close of play, S swell should extend north of the QLD border with S exposed breaks seeing 3-4ft sets. 

Winds will vary according to latitude and distance from the low. Light offshore in SEQLD, grading W, then SW through NENSW, and likely stiff SW on the Mid North Coast.

By Fri April 1st, the surf is expected to be on a solid increasing trend , as a storm force low sits almost due East of Sydney (see below). How big? Building to 8-10ft across open stretches in NENSW is on the cards, bigger at exposed S facing coastlines with regional Points starting to max out. Smaller but still solid 6ft surf is expected north of the border. Fresh S’ly winds should extend across the region.

Probably a better day to hunker down than chase surf in NENSW, unless you have a novelty spot in mind or are confident in huge surf at the very few spots handling the size. SEQLD will offer up more user friendly options but it’s still likely to overwhelm most beachbreaks. Expect a light NE Seabreeze through the a’noon, especially in SEQLD.

This weekend (Apr 2-3)

Solid surf extends over the weekend, under current modelling. Both major models show the low only slow moving off the coast, almost due East of Sydney.

Our region will be under a much lighter synoptic flow, with light SW winds tending to light E’ly breezes. 

Expect size to hold in the 8-10ft range Sat, bigger at exposed S facing coasts in NENSW, easing back a few notches Sun as the low contracts and fills in a little. 

It’ll still be in the 10ft+ range Sun, bigger at S facing coasts. Size in SEQLD will be more restrained, with 6ft surf Sat, easing a notch into Sun. Expect much smaller surf at protected Points.

Not a weekend for anyone who isn’t ultra experienced and confident/prepared for big surf, especially across NENSW, where a few spots will be handling the full size of the swell.

Next week (Apr4 onwards)

The Tasman low is expected to drift away to the NE early next week, with swell easing as it does so.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we’ll get a super clean day as the swell drops, due to a monster high moving in from the Bight. This quickly sets up a ridge along the NSW and SEQLD coast, with S to SE winds becoming established.

Monday will still be very rowdy with large surf from the S-S/SE, likely still in the 6-8ft across NENSW, smaller 4-5ft in SEQLD range and fresh S’ly winds, light SW inshore early. Size should ease through the day but winds will remain fresh so finding a wave will involve getting protection from the winds. Expect smaller, but more manageable surf in more protected Bays.

Surf will slowly ease back through to the middle of next week. There’s going to be an insane amount of energy in the Tasman Sea so we’ll expect a slow roll-off in size. Winds will remain a problem though with the high pressure ridge maintaining a S to SE flow at least into the middle of next week.

Longer term and we’ll be monitoring the tropical Coral Sea with models now hinting through successive model runs of a tropical depression, possible cyclone, in the Coral Sea. This far out, track and ultimate surf potential are purely speculative, but we’ll keep tabs on that while we monitor the much more pressing developments in the Tasman Sea this week.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.