South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 7th Mar)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• E swell holding Tues with light morning winds
• Small S swell favouring NENSW in the mix late Tues/Wed
• New S swell Tues favouring NENSW, becoming solid Wed/Thurs, smaller in SEQLD
• S/SE swell easing Fri/Sat
• Long range E swell arriving later Sat, peaking Sun, with inconsistent sets
• Small blend of swells into next week

Recap

Swell energy from the E really punched above it’s weight over the weekend, with wave heights well in exceedance of f/cast expectations. Size on Sat was in the 6-8ft range with some exposed breaks having sets in the 10ft range. Light SW winds kept conditions well groomed for most of the day. Winds were more unruly Sunday with NE winds across large part of the f/cast region, although tending SE in some parts.

Size today has eased back into the 3-4ft range with some bigger sets and clean conditions under a light wind regime. 

Still plenty of juice around this morning

This week (Mar 7-11)

An unstable, troughy pattern persists across most of the East Coast with a large (1027hPa) high near New Zealand anchoring a long S/SE fetch from the South Island to Central Tasman Sea. This fetch provides a pulse of S to S/SE swell before another low forms in the trough line off the NSW Central Coast Tues, rapidly re-invigorating a robust S to S/SE fetch off the South to Central Coast before slowly drifting off to the SE later this week. This fetch is enhanced by a pressure gradient squeeze with another strong high currently moving East in the Bight. Meanwhile, out in the South Pacific a sub-tropical low is deepening well E of the North Island with a well aimed fetch expected to be aimed at the sub-tropics generating a long range E’ly groundswell for the weekend.

In the short run, a day of light winds beckons tomorrow, while the low spins up off the Sydney Coast. Expect a light morning offshore flow tending to light NE breezes in the a’noon. Surf in the 3-4ft range across most of the region is on the cards, with S swell arriving across the NENSW coast through the a’noon in the 2-3ft range. 

Wednesday looks to be a more dynamic day as the low spins up. SW winds should push along the Mid North Coast from dawn, reaching the Yamba, then Ballina region during the morning and the QLD border around lunch-time. East swell in the 3ft range will be dominant in SEQLD, with a mix of E and S swells in NENSW. That promises some good A frame potential for beachbreaks under SW winds through the morning.

Expect conditions to become more wild and woolly in the a’noon as S’ly winds intensify to strong wind status.

Gales and severe gales developing off the NSW coast Wed, will be tucked in behind the Hunter curve, so expect a much reduced swell load from this low in more Northern regions. Through Thurs NENSW will see surf from the S build into the 6ft range at S facing beaches. Expect less of this S swell will get north of the border-around 3-4ft- where E swell keeps chugging away in the 3-4ft range concurrently. Fresh S’ly to SSE’ly winds Thurs will confine surfing to more protected Points.

The end  of the week sees surf slowly easing as the low moves away towards New Zealand. Better angled swell trains from the S/SE generated by a long fetch of S/SE winds feeding into the low will arrive during the day, maintaining 4-6ft surf in NENSW, and supplying surf in the 3-4ft range in SEQLD. Unbelievably E swell maintains 2-3ft surf, so with S/SE to SE winds moderating through the day there’ll be lots of fun waves, with most of them at the Points.

It’s another week with a heap of swell energy to play with, although water quality near the big rivers will still be severely impacted by floodwaters. 

This weekend (Mar 12-13)

A fun blend of swells expected this weekend.

The dominant S/SE swell should hold some 3-4ft sets through the morning on Sat, easing slightly through the day. Long period E/SE swell from the intense low well to the East of the North Island is expected to fill in late in the a’noon. The bulk of the swell is expected Sunday but some inconsistent 3-4ft sets are on the radar late on Sat. Light/mod SE winds are expected.

Those sets will be more frequent Sunday with a few bigger bomb sets expected, though there will be a long wait for them. In the mix will be some S/SE swell in the 3-4ft range as well. Expect more light SE winds with a better chance of a morning SW breeze. The combo swell offers up good prospects for A frames if you can find somewhere clean. 

Next week (Mar14 onwards)

A more settled week ahead next week. The basic blocking pattern of high pressure in the Tasman maintains a light onshore flow across the region, with good odds for land breezes to develop overnight into Mon. 

We’re looking at a small blend of long range E’ly swell and some leftover S/SE energy through Mon into Tuesday. Both sources will top out around 3ft on Mon, with a slight uptick on Tues. 

Expect small fun beach breaks both days.

By Wed we have a broad area of low pressure drifting down from the sub-tropics to keep an eye on. It looks quite weak and lacking structure this far out, with a weak and poorly aimed fetch of E’ly winds likely to kick wave heights up a notch during Wed and into Thurs. 

Longer term and troughiness in the Tasman Sea offers up potential for more low pressure development later next week, although it’s too early to offer any definitive assessments.

Check back Wed for a full update.