Stacks of E swell ahead, with a few windows of good conditions to work with
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 28th Feb)
Forecast Summary (tl;dr)
- Days more E'ly swell ahead next week with winds favouring the Points
- Lighter winds Wed and Thurs, potentially open up beachbreak options
- Longer period E to E/SE swell kicks back in Fri and the weekend
- Surf slowly eases from the E early next week
Recap
Lots of E’ly swell energy in the water over the weekend as a stalled trough and developing coastal low lingered around the region. Saturday saw surf in the 3-5ft range, rideable only at protected Pointbreaks under a heavy E’ly wind regime. Surf continued at similar levels Sun, with some windows of lighter and even offshore winds on offer as the low spun up. If you jagged a window of good winds there was some fun, albeit dirty water surf in the 4-5ft range on offer. Historical flooding across the SEQLD and Northern NSW region into today has been the far bigger story than the 4-5ft surf on offer, with a coast hugging low only crawling southwards. The Sunshine Coast has seen clearing conditions with some clean 3-4ft surf on offer. Most of the rest of the region is a wash-out.
Sunshine Coast was the first to clean up after the deluge
Lots of swell getting into the protected Points
This week (Feb28-Mar4)
Blocking high pressure straddles the south-east of the continent with centres near New Zealand and Tasmania. This is maintaining a deep E’ly flow, with coastal troughs and a surface low off the NSW North Coast, now moving South. Another tropical depression near New Caledonia is in the process of re-invigorating a long E’ly fetch in the South Pacific corridor, with plenty of E swell on track from this source later in the week. It’s an incredibly dynamic outlook as the close range source and more distant E swell source overlap this week.
In the short run, and with the low moving south, offshore winds from the northern outflow from the low will track southwards through the region tomorrow. These offshore winds have already been on the Sunshine Coast for more than 24 hrs, and will extend through the Gold Coast later tonight, and into NENSW tomorrow. Expect a SW flow through the morning before winds clock around S to SE through the day. Surf size will moderate a little as the low drags most of the strongest proximate fetch further southwards. Size will vary from around 3-4ft on the Sunshine Coast, to 3-5ft on the Gold Coast into the 4-5ft range further into NSW, biggest on the Mid North Coast.
Offshore winds are with us again Wed morning, before tending NW/NE on the North Coast NSW, more E’ly on the QLD coast. There’ll be some variability in winds with models still showing a lingering low centre off the North Coast and a trough inland, with a lot of instability. Size will hold in the 3-5ft range and direction will be slightly more E/SE.
Thursday is far from set in stone, as far as local winds go. A light N’ly flow is most likely across the region, with early morning NW breezes expected. An inland trough line lingers across the region later this week with continued instability expected, possibly bringing wind shifts through the region. Stay tuned foe updates. No great change to surf though, more swell from the E to E/SE in the 3-5ft range.
Continuing instability from troughs near the coast continues into Fri, with a NE flow most likely but areas of S to SE winds possible around the trough lines. Longer period E swell from the more distant South Pacific source should see swell thicken up into the 4-5ft range. You’ll have to dodge floodwaters anywhere in SEQLD and NENSW, but there’ll be plenty of swell on offer and potentially good winds.
The takeaway this week is there is the possibility of small windows of more favourable winds but they will be fleeting and unreliable. Tons of swell will be on hand.
This weekend (Mar 5-6)
While the coastal low is bombarding the coast with swell this week the more distant South Pacific fetch will be moving into the swell window. Longer period E swell from this source is expected to hold plenty of size on Sat, with surf in the 4-6ft range on offer. A general light NE flow is expected with periods of variable winds across the region.
That strong swell energy from the E, carries through at similar levels through Sun. GFS model maintains the strong NE to E/NE flow, adding one more angry onshore day to the mix. EC model suggests a much lighter NE flow as a trough hovers around the South Coast. That gives us some hope at this early stage of a cleaner day Sunday while all this strong E swell is in the water. Stay tuned for updates.
Next week (Mar7 onwards)
There’ll be no lack of swell to carry us through the first half of next week, but conditions will still require some settling down.
The sheer amount of energy in the ocean from near and far sources is going to see E’ly swell hold in at least the 4-6ft range into early next week, with only a slow easing trend in place through the first half of the week. We’ll deal with the specifics of that easing trend as we move through the week.
The much bigger curve ball is a prospective trough forming in the Lower Tasman off the South Coast as a new high pressure tracks well South and East of Tasmania early next week.
EC model suggests the trough will form an angular NW-SE line extending from roughly Sydney latitudes towards the South Island. Under that scenario we’ll see a broad coverage of SE gales form along the trough line, generating a pulse of SE swell through early next week.
GFS maintains a NE flow until Wed with a much weaker S’ly change occurring then or on Thurs.
E’ly swell trains from the South Pacific source slowly fade after mind next week which will likely see this incredibly active, stormy start to Autumn enter a more subdued phase.
Check back Wed for a fresh update.
Comments
Hmmm. Sounds like at least another week of brown onshore slop. Getting boring now.
Will be weeks before water clears up around here.
But there should be windows of better winds this week.
Amazing that in three days Wivenhoe dam has risen so sharply from just under 60% to 180%. Here's the last ten years of data.
Maybe I don’t understand the graph, but in 2011 Wivenhoe Dam reached 191% of normal water supply storage capacity,
Lismore flood gauge at the Dawson gauge peaked at 14.44 at 2pm today, still reading 14.10.
Previous record flood height from 1974 was 12.4.
Debbie flood in 2017 was 11.6.
That's an enormous increase on record flood heights.
Sure picked an interesting time to take over the forecast FR.
Bet you can't wait for 3-4ft South of Byron, flat in QLD, Winter.
Just crazy the figures being recorded. Pomona over 1500mm and Mt Glorious more again. Brisbane’s figures surpass Tracy Jan 74. 3 consecutive days in Bris city 200mm +. Only 1893 had a wetter month. However I think as a singular event this is worse.
Living north of Coffs I’m use to rain. We’ve’ now had 3 solid summers with double summer avg rainfall. However pales in significance.
Best of luck to luck those in low lying areas further north.
Radar looking like the worst of what’s left has moved just offshore.
Hope it stays that way.
Just tallied up the rainfall figures
1200mm February
1800mm summer
2400mm summer& spring
No more please
Wow!
Evacuation orders for Woodburn, Coraki, Wardell, South Ballina, West Ballina, North Ballina.
Anywhere near that river is going underwater.
Yeah rising steadily..
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDN60231/IDN60231.058061.plt.shtml
Saw some vid of the Richmond in Ballina central and looks like it has already peaked.
But err on the side of caution.
Looks like it did a fair bit of damage in west Ballina.
Yeah I reckon there'd be a few wet garages and on-site vans in the caravan parks but it generally didn't seem to bad.
Grabbed my mum from West Ballina and put all her furniture up higher but (famous last words) it's difficult to imagine Ballina going under wholesale like Lismore.
River Street near Bunnings was the deepest I saw, claimed a few 2WD cars.
Levels were dropping with the tide so we'll see how we go with the high tomorrow morning.
Looks like the forefathers who located the giant prawn up there did their flood due-dilligence.
do flood mitigation, dams, levies, roads, drainage etc have any impact on flood levels. I mean can compare levels measured 130 years ago to today and can we even rely on 130 yo measurements. No doubting this is unprecedented, just saying what was 'observed' in 1890 needs to be taken with a grain of salt
Yeh they absolutely do, as does the large amount of impervious surfaces (ie concrete) that increase velocity of flow compared to vegetation.
With rains of this magnitude however, the only real suggestion to protect against floods is planned retreat (particularly for lismore cbd)
as repreive from the chaos floodingwise, just saw a ski go over the falls on the north Kirra cam... GOLD.. we all need a laugh at this point in time.. Thanks gents..
If you can get skis into areas they are finding people trapped In roof spaces. Heavy as
If you can get skis into areas they are finding people trapped In roof spaces. Heavy as. They need help. Total Disaster. Fuck the surf off. Jemmy bars sledge hammers. Wet saws. . Tech heads. Will need removal. People are dying from entrapment. Emergency services are over stretched. Surf another day
Coming in amongst the debris this morning I was bit surprised to run into this guy
Where abouts was this mate ?
Mermaid. She been moooooving
Poor thing, keep an eye out for sharks they'll be all over the livestock.
Poor thing!
Looks like there are standing waves on the Tweed Bar with the volume of water coming out of the river.
Wow, that's insane!
If you got a decent boat you are needed. People are dying from being trapped in roof spaces. Heavy as it gets. They cannot escape. You are going to have to cut smash or remove roof sheeting. Emergency service are over whelmed. By scale of disaster at present.
Which area exactly?
Craig I heard the tail end off it on abc radio. I am not in that state but the reporting wasn't good. . I had a look briefly. Maybe have a look at local fb page etc. reckon it's gotta be up. They sounded pretty rocked. Lismore area has been hammered. Locals to the area would know. Guys in Tinnys are just saying it's overwhelming. Qld nsw crew will have a greater understanding. I got the feeling they where worried about not getting to everyone before next weather event if that helps. Sounded abousolutly terrible. I think the emergency crew would be able to identify the areas. They obviously don't want to add to the problem either.Sorry I don't have more info. Locals will know more. Just thought it should be posted. A ski and a boat are critical in saving more lives. The person speaking said they are expecting to find more people in roof spaces either alive or dead. Absolute tragedy. Which areas have the most houses under water with roofs spaces still above is where I would be going. Sorry I don't know more at this stage. I'm saying lismore area out of gut feeling. So hetic.
I also understand my coments are alarming. It was an instant reaction due to what has been unfolding to make crew aware.
Sorry I don't have more detail. Abc radio for those that have access. Anyone in those effected areas or who are in contact with people should make those conditions known If your phones wet how are you going to get the message out. They reported they are still rescuing and looking for people. People are in shock and overwhelmed. They need help. If you have the ability you should do it. Not sure how many people need to be evacuated but they are pushing on. Make the effort if you have the means and skill. Allot of people are unaccounted for. Crew have skills and resources which are needed. They are expecting more loss of life. Take care.
Anyone one with surf life saving trade boat experience will provide some relief. Abousolutly devastating. Know your limits.
I am not even sure if main RDs to worst areas have been effected. To even access worst hit areas.
https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/
There were issues yesterday with people trying to help, but actually causing traffic jams and impeding rescue work. Not sure this call to arms is appropriate at this point. I understand the sentiment, but maybe leave it to the people on the ground to sort out at this stage. They will ask for help if needed and will co-ordinate it in a safe manner.
It is absolutely not appropriate for crew on the Goldie to hammer down flooded roads with their boats to try and help people in Lismore.
And bloody hell, don't crawl into a roof space. That zone is a death trap at the best of times. Get on the roof, if you have to. Better to leave early and don't wait until you are in trouble.
Excellent burzum.
totally agree Burzum,
My insta feed flooded with people "helping" but filming themselves at the same time..... what for? Fame?
Reminds me of the one time i helped out with disabled surfers association, a great cause however everyone "helping" was actually getting in the way, including myself.
Why was i there? to make myself feel wanted? to feel good about myself? i don't know, but i never went back.
They get their tweet reposted by a news site for their 15 minutes of fame
Heavy..
Not sure the photog sorry.
Holy shit! That's crazy.
It seems to me that the problem Australia has is there's so much variability in the rainfall. A decent El-Nino and it's drought and bush fires again. Anyone got any idea how much longer this La-Nina event will go on for?
That’s Australia.
Whatever weather we get, we get too much of it
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
that's right Spuddups - the old land of droughts and flooding rains, seems it always will be...
I've no idea how long this latest LaNina will last, maybe it'll be done soon after this event, maybe we'll get another year, but it'll eventually (and probably pretty quickly) swing back to the opposite, and we'll have the extended dry and hot weather. And all this rain will trigger massive understorey growth/thickening in many forested areas = increased fuel loads and big bushfires when those classic spring (late spring/early summer) weather conditions kick in - high temps, low humidity, strong NW winds. I'm talking about SEQ. That's the cycle I reckon we are heading for
An a much healthier looking cow! How's the drop in but. Carnt..
saw some terrible drop ins from some of the more well known locals today like nic vas.
Incredible before and after pics of parts of Lismore streets and businesses. Crazy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/feb/28/lismore-flooding-...
Higgins Stormchaser bloke reckons we could still get another 200-500mm of rain ?
Duh
speed read misread that .
South of NSW Northern Rivers I think they are referring to Udo
Yep
These Goldy daily reports have been a tad over the top/melodramatic past couple days imo.
In what way? Described it perfectly today. Good swell with brown water and god knows what is swimming around in it...
Hope Ballina crew are all doing ok. Ballina town being essentially a low lying island at the entrance to a huge river system, mixed with modern buildings on swamplands is poorly designed at best.
Wow, couldn't breathe?
Rainbow sand runoff...
That a Thresher?? Chunky!
Bull
Thought it was a juvenile white? Just a bit bloated from the decomposition setting in...
Such an amazing piece of evolutionary form and function.
Had the best surf of the summer here on the SC today.
Yeah early this morning at my local was a special one
Punchy too - scraped under one that I thought was going to give me a drilling. Had a moment of panic when I thought it snapped my board behind me as I ducked under.
Haha! Yeah I had one that put my duck diving to the test. Took a few big breaths before pushing under that one haha
https://www.facebook.com/ABCSunshineCoast/photos/pcb.4992833294096737/49... this washed up at Perigian this morning. spooky thinking about having that come at you in the surf
Another deluge to come here on Coffs coast. Are there any comparisons to this system with regards to widespread rainfall and longevity?
Ben, SS, what happened to this arvo’s forecast?
Telstra phone and internet is out since this morning across tweed possibly to Woodburn obviously impacting swellnet.. all ATM's etc out too, cash only at the shops that weren't closed and sold out of stuff
I reckon considering what is going on around the Goldy and Northern NSW might have to let the Forecast slide a day or two..
In the meantime I can provide an update:
Rest of the week.
Sunny coast will continue to pump on the beachies with nary a soul out (it's over 4 ft). Noosa will a solid 6-8 inches...
Goldy will be good everywhere, well the beachies will look good, but after paddling for 30 mins and get out you realise it's closing out, and you are in the line-up with 47 bullsharks. but you prefer this as the alternative is to surf Coolie with 47,000 other human sharks....
Northern NSW - to get to the surf everyone has to paddle from their houses... it's big and unruly with the odd epic bank or corner to be had.. the North wind won't help but it won't kill it.
Weekend
It won't be flooded,
banks will be different
everywhere will be not as it was this week....
Next week
Fark that's ages away.
There you go Ben done, till friday
Sorry everyone, there is no internet anywhere on the Northern Rivers right now (NBN or 4G) - which means no surfcams, and no way to access forecast data, and therefore no way to upload new FC Notes to the site (I'm travelling interstate right now, unable to assist until Friday). The Northern Rivers' NBN backbone has been affected by this weather event.
Here's part of the information we received via our wholesale account earlier today (I've removed unnecessary info):
"A loss of signal...at multiple Fibre Access Node (FAN) sites has caused...an unplanned outage. The severe storms have caused a loss of power to the FAN site. The site has been running off battery backups which have now been depleted. Field services are currently unable to gain access to the site due to road closures and weather conditions in the area.
...
Provider who manages power to the site advises road closures may remain for up to two days
...
NBN Network Engineers conducted a review to re-direct network traffic...however access to the Woodburn site is needed."
You would think that road closures could be overcome with a helicopter to get engineers to the sites that put the Northern rivers in to a communication black hole..no ones phone's are working unless your with Vodafone and nowhere can take card only cash but the ATM's aren't working and fuel and food is running out in lots of places..crazy times
Most helicopters can't land on water.
That or the point was having its day of days
Apologies for my ignorance.
Hope all is ok for the crew down there.
Cos you mentioned Woodburn...
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/a-shipping-container-has-...
Made me think of how fragile is the existence humans have created.
Kingy was shot today with no internet, no eftpos. 90% of shops didn’t bother opening. Mother Nature takes away our technology and we shut down. She takes the roads and we’ve got no food in the shops.
Nothing new, I know, I just had too much time to ponder with no internet!
It definitely is worth reflecting on. Given the severity and frequency of some of the natural disaster over even just the past five years, it's made me think that if such trends continue the only real option to keep society functioning will be to continued quantitative easing in the form of disaster payments for individuals, families and businesses. I can't imagine home insurance is going to be easy to come by in many of the worst affected areas after this, so what is the longterm viability going to be for these areas if events like this come every decade?
Its nothing new for Lismore...
http://australiasevereweather.com/floods/lismore_flood_pictures_reports.htm
Thunderstorms through the night, pissing down again...
The Maryborough levee worked this time
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-03/flood-levee-saves-businesses/1008...
Woah how good is that Levee..
Christ if that let go Buildings would be Levelled !
I know. I’m still not understanding how they get a perfect seal on the bottom. Works a treat though
Yeah I'm also amazed at it. How far does it stretch and how are they keeping it all out. Guess pressure would keep it sealed.
Boom! https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-03/queensland-nsw-weather-rain-flood...
Wonder why it hit there on the building and not even top five most have lightning rods on their roofs.
Could be hitting something in the background?
Yeah maybe a pine tree out of sight?
Seeming though the swellnet team are out of action due to floods, here is my forecast for the next few days:
Thursday - 4 - 5 foot long lines of ESE swell with longish waits between the bigger sets, could have been absolutely pumping everywhere but winds fucked it
Friday - swell continues 4 - 5 ft (the odd 6 footer at exposed locations) ESE direction. winds look good until mid morning. Water is horrible, prob best to not surf and leave it to the guys that want ear infections.
Sat - Muscled up swell in 4 - 6 foot range, more East in direction. Early morning best as the wind will swing onshore during the day. Sit this day out too, they ear infection guys will also have a virus and you dont want to be near them,
Sunday - who cares - Northerly winds predicted.
In summary - Everyone should surf The Pass because on the goldy you may get dropped in on by a cow. Dead or alive.
Thanks very much. You want my resume Craig?
Ha, nailed it!
A happy balance between Steve's detailed analysis and the 'TL;DR Summary Notes'.
Good read, would read again. Thanks Burleigh!
Cheers Calk, Maybe I’ve found my calling. Hahaha
Craig, Ben, Stu…… I’m still waiting for my job offer boys.
Okay, reaching out here because the Tassie mob don't seem to talk much on their thread.
I'm heading over to Hobart tomorrow evening back on Sunday. I can take a board if I want to and I have a car. I know nothing of Tassie whatsoever so if any body could give me even the most basic of information of where might be best to head I would be extremely grateful (didn't want to start a new thread in the forums :))
Look at the forecast summary, wams (swell and wind) google earth or just google.
Not that hard
Thanks Burleigh, was kinda hoping for first hand knowledge.
Your timing is on point for Tassie's fickle yet quality-encrusted east coast.
This muscled-up tradeswell is getting down there, arriving as 5-6ft of long-lined NE swell. Strong NE winds tomoz give way to languid pre-frontal wind on Saturday opening up lots of options.
Can't say too much here but the Tasman Hwy is on the coast where it counts (except for the real crown jewels, but without the right equipment you cant access them anyway).
Get lots of surfing done on Saturday cos when the change hits on Saturday night many of those options will shut down under strong southerlies.
You'll still find places to surf, just gotta burrow in a bit deeper to the headlands.
And rug up. It'll get cold.
Much appreciated Stu, kicking the spiders out of my 4/3 right now
Eaglehawkneck is a good surf beach 1 hr east of the Bart, it's on the Tasman peninsula.
Amazing area.
Digital Earth Australia. Never played with this site before, tonnes of options.
Tweed before/after: https://maps.dea.ga.gov.au/#share=s-qVSBXKnTKRsgZsRDqBRVpAdWj7Y
Cheers Sprout. Awesome link, never seen that before!
sick! There goes hours of my life. Thanks Sprout!!
Wow incredible Sprout!
That's awesome Sprout! Pity my internet is dial up speed right now lol
Haha, it loves some bandwidth hey!
After the chaos of the last week on the MNC with rain, mud and easterlies, it was a shock yesterday arvo to see clean offshore conditions on the coast and watch some beautiful groomed lines pushing up to 8ft on the sets roll in.
Yep it was a special arvo
If you want to see the real time definition of a flood plain, there you have it. Great link Sprout.
Yeah crazy hey, it's a shame further south has more cloud cover. Looks like the 'flood' satellite pass from 02/03 cuts off at Kawana on the SC, would have liked to see the change further North, however the Bribie split is pretty cool. Looking at the date options there's new passes every 2 then 3 days, so the next pass is due on the 5th, hopefully not as much cloud cover. The Clarence change is amazing.
Abc news
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-04/murwillumbah-frustrated-by-sheer-...
Horror show around here, Lismore looks like a bomb has hit it, and I believe Woodburn down to South Ballina is still underwater.
Ballina itself is coming good but people in West Ballina still have no power and won't do for a few days yet.
Fuel ran out, food ran out, Eftpos was down, no internet until just now and so it is/was generally a post-apocalyptic vibe.
One thing I will say - it's a good idea to have a disaster checklist, including cash, non-digital radio, functional bicycle, tinned food and maybe a water purifier.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-04/dj-the-miracle-flood-dog-found-af...