Days of E'ly swell ahead as we head into Autumn

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Plenty of fun tradewind swell from Thurs onwards with light winds AM and PM winds favouring Points
  • E'ly tradewind swell bumps up a notch Fri
  • E'ly swell holds in with plenty of size Sat and Sun with winds favouring Points (windows of lighter winds possible)
  • Days more E'ly swell ahead next week with winds looking lighter early next week
  • Potential for more solid E swell from mid next week as tropics fires up, stay tuned for updates

Recap

Very wet recent 36-48 hrs in the region, as deep E’ly winds feed into a coastal trough. Surf yesterday was in the 2ft range with light winds that tended E’ly. Size has increased today, up into the 2-3ft range for most of the region, bigger 3ft on the Sunshine Coast. Conditions were variable today, mostly straight onshore for most of NENSW, with pockets of light SW breezes on the Sunshine Coast and far south Mid North Coast allowing for a session of clean waves this morning. Winds are remaining variable around squalls and storms, with a background E’ly flow dominant.

Nothing amazing but plenty of semi-clean peelers on offer

This week (Feb21-25)

Compared to Mondays Notes the rest of the week is now looking more unstable, under the influence of a classic La Niña pattern. High  pressure has strengthened  (1019 to 1030 hPa since Monday!)as it’s moved into the Tasman Sea and a series of troughs are turning the moist and deep E’ly infeed into plenty of showers and rain. This is the pattern for almost the entire Eastern Seaboard. For our region, intense rainfall totals have been reported with more to come, as the moist E’ly winds interact with a coastal trough.

With high pressure now semi-stationary near New Zealand the deep E’ly flow is set to remain place for a while, with nearshore winds in our region now tending E to E/SE with pockets of lighter winds around rain squalls and storm cells.

Tomorrow sees a further building trend in E’ly swell, as size ramps up from 3ft into the 3-4ft range. Local winds are extremely hard to predict with the current troughiness. Cape Byron winds were 20 knots E’ly at dawn and had tended light SW to SSW over lunch-time. The general flow will be from the E to SE, with a high probability of lighter and more variable flows through the day. Keep tabs on local wind conditions.

Conditions become more inclement Friday to close out the working week. The coastal trough off the SEQLD coast is expected to deepen with increasing flow on the southern side of the trough. Under current modelling this is likely to see E’ly winds increasing through the Gold Coast to NENSW area. The Sunshine Coast has a greater change of seeing a more light and variable flow, but this is far from set in stone. Size is expected to bump a notch into the 3-5ft range, likely favouring Points, under the prevailing E to SE wind, but sneaky sessions at more open beaches are potentially on offer if you can time the wind shifts.

This weekend (Feb 26 - 27)

No great change to the swell expected this weekend but the presence of the lingering trough makes winds a bit trickier to call- expect a final finesse on Friday.

Plenty of E swell both days, at similar sizes to Friday- 3-5ft, smaller down in the more sheltered corners of the Points.

This will be generated by the increasing winds in the deep E’ly wind field retrograding W towards the coast as a large area of tropical low pressure off the QLD coast starts to deepen and move S. There will be embedded areas of stronger winds in the fetch so expect some subtle ups and downs in the surf size over the weekend, with pulses also tidally affected. But the take home is plenty of swell energy both days.

Winds are likely to clock around from E/SE to a more SE or even S/SE flow as the weekend progresses as the trough moves southwards. Expect a more E’ly flow through the Southern half of the f/cast region, especially south of Yamba. 

Next week (Feb 28 onwards)

The dynamic activity which has been teased for weeks on the charts is finally coming to fruition. And the timeline has been bought forwards. 

The weekends swell regime continues into  Monday with chunky E/NE swell in the water. This should see size in the 3-5ft range continue 

E/NE swell continues at similar levels Tues. Again there may be some subtle ups and downs in the size but with so much energy imparted into the sea state, swell trains will have plenty of consistency.

Winds to start the new week should abate as the coastal trough dissipates and leaves an area of slacker pressure gradients, possibly allowing for weaker land breezes to develop before light SE winds kick in. 

It looks like a good start to the week, water quality notwithstanding after all the rain washes another load of sediment out of the estuaries.

From mid-next week model divergence makes confidence in any specific calls extremely low. We’ll sketch out the pattern and fill in the details as they become better illuminated. 

Strong high pressure belt remains in place, offering excellent anchoring/cradling for multiple low pressure systems in the Coral Sea and South Pacific. 

On it’s own terms, the high pressure belt is expected to form a long, broad tradewind fetch through the South Pacific corridor between New Caledonia and the North Island, extending back into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman Sea. That will maintain plenty of E to E/NE swell at least through to next weekend.

As well as a broad area of low pressure off the QLD coast this weekend, it’s possible we may see one or even two tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea and off New Caledonia next week. EC favours a cyclone off New Caledonia, moving slowly to a position off the North Island later next week with excellent potential for a sizeable blast of E’ly groundswell into the first weekend of March.

GFS is suggesting dual cyclones in the Coral Sea with a potential Fujiwhara effect, with a more NW movement back into the Coral Sea before tracking S. This set-up favours QLD, but as mentioned the extraordinary tradewind belt maintain excellent E swell potential to start Autumn off with a bang.

Check back Fri for a fresh look and a final squizz at the weekend.

Yeah, and, better get the step-ups waxed up.

Comments

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Wednesday, 23 Feb 2022 at 6:56pm

Wind is trying its best to blow my car over at the moment parked at an exposed beach headland.

greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams Wednesday, 23 Feb 2022 at 7:26pm

No swell & lots of wind ATM!

greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams Wednesday, 23 Feb 2022 at 7:40pm

No swell & lots of wind ATM!

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Wednesday, 23 Feb 2022 at 8:50pm

Don't expect much this week. Very hit and miss

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 6:36am

Easterly garbage this morning. Back to sleep everyone

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 6:55am

I have to say Steve you are very good at polishing a turd. I honestly can’t see anything worthwhile until early-mid next week given these onshore shit winds.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 7:10am

Haha totally

dazzler's picture
dazzler's picture
dazzler Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 7:58am

Add brown water to the equation, might give the ear infection a miss.

Last 2 months have been good.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 7:04am

Lotta 100mm+ rainfall totals across the Tweed/Richmond since 9am yesty, highest being:

230mm at Alstonville
190mm at Tuckurimba
186mm at Whiporie
162mm at Tuncester
145mm at Myocum
140mm at Uki and Lismore
135mm at Boat Harbour

Couldn't find anything over 100mm in SE Qld though (most I could find was Currumbin Ck with 75mm).

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 7:52am

Most of the rain seems to be staying off the coast on the Goldie

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 6:18pm

Some serious divergence in the models out in the Coral Sea for early-mid next week too.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 7:05pm

Happily see the return of howling Spring northerlies in trade for this absolute pile of shit summer, one of the worst in memory.

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 9:28am

250mm+ of the wet stuff so far here overnight

seeds's picture
seeds's picture
seeds Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 1:09pm

Wow we hit 415mm to 9am. That’s 165mm in the hour till 9am

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 12:51pm

Geez the updates for next week are jumping around like crazy. Either way the step up is getting waxed and ready.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 12:52pm

Gunna be a wild ride.

greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 2:14pm

Swell is building now from the East, period increasing too just need these relentless Easterly winds to cease!

greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams's picture
greg-n.williams Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 2:14pm

Swell is building now from the East, period increasing too just need these relentless Easterly winds to cease!

Troppo's picture
Troppo's picture
Troppo Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 2:23pm

Aqua ear should have record sales over the next week or so!!
Water quality is feral and will get worse next week.
Take good care of any cuts, plus your ears if you do venture out there. Infection ++

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 2:40pm

Keeps the crowds down though. Risk/reward. Was surprising fun yesterday arvo (expectations very low) as long as you kept your mouth firmly shut to keep that fucking water out.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 2:26pm

Yeah, good call Troppo.

I've never had probs with infections around here but you'd think bacterial levels would be high right now.

GreenJam's picture
GreenJam's picture
GreenJam Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 3:22pm

another 170mm here overnight, from about 3am - 6am, and probably another 100 or so since then, its been pelting down all day, that's on top of at least 310mm Tuesday night.
Freeride - I think we can now say that soil moisture deficit in these parts should be addressed

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 3:29pm

hahaha, thats good to hear .