South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 14th Feb)

Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Monday looks great with strong E/SE swell and light winds
• Easing swell Tues with light winds AM
• Small E'ly tradewind swells Wed/Thurs, easing Fri with winds becoming light
• Small surf this weekend with light winds
• Monitoring Coral Sea for potential activity later next week

Recap

It was an active weekend with a series of swell trains making landfall across the region. Saturday saw a more E/NE dominated swell angle, with some solid 3-5ft surf across SEQLD, smaller in NENSW, though with a building trend during the day.

As a more SE-E/SE swell angle became predominant on Sunday surf eased in SEQLD relative to NENSW, which saw a significant building trend through the a’noon with 6ft sets across exposed and semi-exposed regional Points. Surf was a smaller 3-4ft across SEQLD. That size difference has extended into today with 6ft sets still on offer across most of NENSW and smaller 3-4ft surf in SEQLD. Conditions were clean early under a light SW breezes which has now clocked around to the SE, confining clean conditions to sheltered Points. All in all, another active surf filled weekend which has been typical of this La Niña Summer. 

Still some sets thumping on the bank

This week (Feb14-18)

STC Dovi really floored the accelerator over the weekend, speeding through the swell window and steam—rolling New Zealand. Absent the stalling over the North Island the tail end of the swell has now been cut short so we’re looking at a steep easing trend and a week of small surf as high pressure moves a little more northwards than it has so far this La Niña Summer. Under the influence of the high pressure belt it’ll be a week of SE to E/SE’ly winds and a small blend of E’ly tradewind swell trains.

In the short run and we’ll be well past the peak and on an incline downwards tomorrow as the last of the SE-E/SE mid period swell ebbs away. A few 4ft sets early- possibly 5ft at noted swell magnets- dropping back into the 3ft range during the day. Early light winds (possibly SW inshore on the Southern Goldy) will tend SE to E/SE and freshen during the day. 

Wed sees the SE swell replaced by E’ly tradeswell. There’s a trade flow in the Coral Sea, possibly enhanced by a slight E’ly dip in the Central Coral Sea Tues. It’s not an amazing fetch by the standards of this summer, but it will keep E’ly swell chugging along in the 2-3ft range, bigger 3ft on the Sunshine Coast during this week. Expect a smaller tradewind signal south of Yamba. 

Thursday and Friday will see an easing trend as the trade flow retracts Eastwards and weakens. That will see 2-3ft surf Thurs, easing back into the 2ft range Fri. Small surf will be offset somewhat by light winds which will see land breezes through the morning. The first window in a while of small, clean surf on the beaches if you’re looking to crack a green wave for the first time.

By Friday these winds will have a N’ly tilt but should stay light through the morning. 

This weekend (Feb 19 - 20)

No major swells expected this weekend. A new high pressure ridge starts to build in behind a S’ly change which is likely overnight Fri or early Sat, though it looks to set up without much strength in it. 

A small S swell will march up the coast generated by the front/low passing well to the south of Tasmania. It’ll just tip the coast, worth a few 2-3ft sets at the most reliable magnets in NENSW Sat a’noon, unlikely to show in SEQLD.

The more reliable source will be residual E’ly swell trains, which will be reinforced Sun by a new round of more localised E’ly swell. 

This should keep surf in the 2-3ft range over the weekend. Gradient winds should be light enough to allow morning land breezes to develop so some fun beachbreak peaks should be on offer both days.

Next week (Feb 21 onwards)

Not much to get excited about to start next week. A few small E’ly leftovers are likely Mon, as another trough works it’s way north with a flukey wind pattern likely before the change. 

A much stronger S’ly kicks in Tues according to current modelling, likely to whip up a rising S to S/SE windswell as the trough increases windspeeds along the front edge of a new high pressure ridge. That will see fresh S to S/SE winds and surf building from the same direction. 

Further ahead and the high looks to set up a blocking pattern next week, with models toying with the idea of another potential cyclone in the Coral Sea later next week. We’ll keep tabs on that and monitor for surf potential but at this stage it’s a way off in the distance, with a chunk of small, onshore surf expected later next week.

Check back Wed for a fresh update.