South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan19)

SEQLD/NENSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Last pulse of the E/SE swell Wed, easing during the day with light N'ly winds (flukey in NENSW), tending E/NE then E/SE north of Byron, S'ly change on the Coffs Coast
• Strong, short range E to E/SE swell developing Thurs, likely peaking Fri , with winds favouring the Points
• Residual, chunky SE to E/SE swell holding at fun, levels this weekend, with SE winds slowly easing. Favouring Points Sat, possibly opening up beachbreaks Sun AM
• Small pulse of E swell Mon, easing into Tues with light winds, offering fun beachbreaks
• Long range E swell Thurs, persisting into Fri, lully and inconsistent with light winds.
• Tropics finally goes dormant with a quieter period ahead from next weekend

Recap

Ex TC Cody has continued to supply strong E/SE swell to the region. Yesterday saw size in the 3-5ft region with light NE winds on offer. The swell was particularly long-lined making spot selection critical; most beachbreaks were closing out. Today has seen a strong rebuild in size as a last pulse of swell from Ex TC Cody makes landfall. Size is in the 3-5ft range in SEQLD with some 6ft sets while NENSW is seeing stronger 6ft+ surf with some bigger sets. Light winds have been offer for most of the region with the Mid North Cast seeing a stiff S’’ly change which is now working it’s way north through the region.

Very long lines of swell from Ex TC Cody this morning

This week (Jan 19-21)

A classic Summer blocking pattern is now setting up with a slow moving high drifting well south of Victoria and a series of troughs interacting with a strong high pressure ridge which has reached Central NSW and is now building into more sub-tropical regions. This ridge/trough combo is developing a broad windfield through the Central Tasman, which is also migrating northwards through the f/cast period. This set-up will dominate local winds and swell production for the rest fo the week, wth a few small traces of longer period S/SE swell also on the mix a from a deep southern low which is aimed up more at New Zealand targets.

Short term and the rest of the working week will be marked by fresh SE winds, so dealing with those winds will be the first order of business to find a rideable wave. Expect fresh/strong winds tomorrow, possibly building  a notch into the later a’noon. Size is expected to build into the 4-6ft range in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD, but it’s short/mid period SE swell so don’t expect too much refraction into more sheltered spots, which will be significantly smaller. Leftover long period E/SE swell is expected to supply some inconsistent 4ft sets early, dropping back through the day. 

Size holds on Fri, with winds also remaining fresh to strong SE. Size holds  in the 5-6ft range in NENSW, 4-6ft in SEQLD at exposed Outer Points with smaller surf into more protected spots and inner Pointbreaks. It’s hard to imagine anywhere surfable except the North facing Points unless you’ve got a strong stomach for strong onshore or side shore winds.

This weekend (Jan 22 - 23)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. If anything, the blocking pattern looks slightly more durable and slower to break down which means the SE flow will be a bit more persistent compared to Monday’s notes. It does look like the region may have a slightly weaker flow, especially Sun morning, with morning SW breeze more likely. We can finesse that on Friday.

Sat sees SE swell persisting at previous size in the 4-5ft range, with a slight easing trend expected through the a’noon. Winds and swell will favour the Points with a few semi-sheltered adjacent beaches also surfable.

Sunday starts in the 3-4ft range, with an easing trend expected through the day. That offers the chance to step away from the crowded Points and seek out more open breaks, as winds and swell start to abate. We’ll flag a little late kick in E swell Sun a’noon as a trough of low pressure tracks SW towards Norfolk Island over the weekend (more below).

Next week (Jan 24 onwards)

Much quieter week on the radar next week , with a few small E swell sources keeping things ticking over.  Blocking high pressure drifts NE into the Tasman Sea Mon, then towards New Zealand by Tuesday.

That sees lighter winds become established Mon, leading to a regime of light land breezes tending to light SE winds during the day.

We’re looking at a few days of small peaky beachbreaks, with size in the 3ft+ range .

A trough of low pressure retrogrades SW back from North of the North Island later this weekend, tracking from near Norfolk Island down into North Island latitudes. It’s quite a compact and mobile fetch so swell production is not expected to be anything amazing. As mentioned above we may see a slight kick from that later Sun but Mon is a safer bet.

Tuesday is likely to see a slight easing into the 3ft range.

With Wednesday dipping back into the 2-3ft range.
These numbers are provisional and dependent on how the small retrograding trough behaves so expect some finessing of details on Fri.

A slightly longer period E swell pulse is expected later Wed generated by a more distant fetch which is expected to chug away in the South Pacific later this week and into the weekend. This fetch is well to the SE of Fiji in Tongan latitudes so expect a Lully, inconsistent swell with some 3ft+ sets, likely to persist into Thurs/Fri, with a regime of light SE’ly winds offering up fun conditions for beachbreaks.

Longer term and a complex trough system moves into Victoria at the end of next week, becoming slow moving and trapping a N’ly flow along the Central NSW coast. At this stage it doesn’t look like much of a swell producer for the sub-tropics and if it does we’ll be looking at an episode of small N’ly windswell into next weekend.

Other than that, the tropics looks to be in a more dormant phase than it has been since before Xmas, suggesting a period of small, more typical summer surf in the region into the end of January.

Check back Fri for the latest update.