South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon Dec27)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Building, chunky SE/ESE swell Tues holding Wed-Fri as strong high pressure ridge sets up, best surf on the Points under SE winds
• Likely pumping surf on the Points New Years weekend, as cyclone or tropical low drifts down QLD coast
• Plenty more surf into the New Year, stay tuned for revisions

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Some long period S swell in the mix Tues, easing Wed
• Building, chunky SE/ESE swell Tues holding Wed-Fri as strong high pressure ridge sets up, best surf on the Points under SE winds
• Likely pumping surf on the Points New Years weekend, as cyclone or tropical low drifts down QLD coast
• Plenty more surf into the New Year, stay tuned for revisions

Recap

The Xmas weekend contained a few small rideable windows both days with a continuation of small E swell and some long range S/SE swell providing surf in the 2ft range. Winds were light both days, with light morning land breezes and a’noon E’ly seabreezes. A S’ly change made it’s way up the coast today and as a high pressure ridge builds S’ly winds are freshening across the f/cast region. 

Small peaks with plenty of popcorn out to sea as S'ly winds freshen

This week (Dec 27-31)

As we discussed on Fri, today has brought a pattern change after a troughy, doldrums period before Christmas. A strong 1033hPa high is located well to the south of the Bight, with a ridge now surging up the East Coast. In the tropics the Monsoon trough is now active, with good odds of cylogenesis occurring before the New Year and plenty of surf ahead. Troughs also lie across the North of the country, extending southwards along the eastern interior and in the Coral Sea down to the Northern Tasman. It’s a hot, moist mess at the moment with a highly fluid synoptic environment. Lets try and make some sense of it.

In the short run the wave climate will be dominated by swell trains from the S, mostly short period SSE swell generated by proximate SSE/SE winds from the high pressure surge. That should see a steep build through Tues with surf building into the 3-5 ft range at exposed breaks, smaller surf in the more sheltered Bays. Local winds will be the issue with a mod/fresh SE flow expected. Some longer period S swell should help more protected locations in NENSW as it refracts into these spots.

The firm ridge holds through Wed, with mod/fresh SE winds, stronger up in SEQLD, grading lighter to the areas south of Yamba. We’ll be past the peak of the high pressure surge, and with a reduction in wind speeds in the proximate fetch through the Northern Tasman and Southern Coral Sea we’ll see surf settle into the 3ft range. There will be some variation in wave heights across the region. Bigger in the North, albeit messier, with wave energy declining the further south you are. The Outer Points will likely be the best of it, with size grading smaller through the inner points, but with much cleaner conditions.

The run down to NYE maintains plenty of surf under a classic Summer pattern. A slow moving high slap bang in the middle of the Tasman, holding a broad coverage of SE to E/SE winds through an energised area of the Northern Tasman and Southern Coral Sea. That will hold a steady drumbeat of mid-period E/SE swell in the 3-4ft range. Winds will be slightly more favourable for the Points in SEQLD, straight out of the SE. Further south, they are likely to tend more E to E/SE, or possibly even E/NE south of Coffs. 

If you are willing to jump onto the conveyor belt of Point surf, there’ll be a constant array of aquatic goodies coming down the line to end 2021.

This weekend (Jan 1 - 2)

All the action will be up North to start the year. We’ll likely be looking at a tropical cyclone or low in the Coral Sea New Years Day. 

Everything hinges on the tropics and the movement of our expected tropical storm(s). Major models are roughly split between two main scenarios.

EC model suggests a coast hugging system, tracking south to be off the Fraser Coast on the weekend, before washing out and dissipating over the inland early next week 3/1. This scenario would generate a large swell for QLD, with size rolling off steeply south of the QLD border. Under the EC scenario we are looking at a very steep increase in cyclone swell through Sat 1/1, with Points in the 6-8ft, possibly 10ft range, only rideable at the most sheltered spots.

This size holds into Sun, with local E to E/SE gales, before easing Mon.

GFS suggests not just a low tracking across from Cape York Peninsula, but a series of lows forming along the monsoon trough line, extending out to New Caledonia (see below).

The sees a long fetch of SE/ESE winds develop through the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman, with a chance of the low near New Caledonia retrograding back towards the East Coast in a SW direction. There’s also a chance of a retrograding low forming near the North Island.

Under GFS scenario we see an increase in E’ly swell Sat, up into the 4-6ft range, smaller the further south you go from Byron/Ballina. This should see excellent surf on the Points, building a notch through Sun. Winds from the SE. A classic weekend for the QLD Points. 

Next week (Jan 3 onwards)

Everything next week depends on how our tropical cyclones/lows play out. EC scenario sees a slow fade out through Mon, with a lingering E/NE flow and a few days of onshore surf, before a slow re-build in SE swell.

GFS has a much more durable swell production scenario, with a fetch near New Caledonia maintaining E swell, and a S’ly change arriving Tues, with more short range SE swell on the horizon as a new high pressure ridge builds in.

EC has traditionally been the more reliable model but GFS has an excellent reputation for tropical predictions.

Best bet is to get your ducks lined up now, pencil in (plenty of) surf time next week and check back in on Wed. We will monitor the upcoming systems closely and give a full update then, as well as in the comments if things change radically in the nearer future.