South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Dec24)

SEQLD Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small, rideable surf XMas Day with light winds, bottoming out Boxing Day with continuing light winds
• Last day of small waves Mon, with S'ly winds becoming established
• Building, chunky SE/ESE swell Tues holding Wed/Thurs as strong high pressure ridge sets up
• Potential increase in E swell NYE
• Longer term dependent on formation of potential tropical low/cyclone. Watch this space

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

• Small mix of swells XMas Day with light winds, including inconsistent S/SE groundswell 
• Small surf continues Boxing Day with light winds, best at S facing beaches
• Last day of small waves Mon, with S'ly winds becoming established
• Building, chunky SE/ESE swell Tues holding Wed-Fri as strong high pressure ridge sets up
• Longer term dependent on formation of potential tropical low/cyclone. Watch this space

Recap

Small but fun surf from a mixed bag of sources has supplied waves at the upper end of f/cast ranges since Wed, especially favouring the Tweed Coast and Gold Coast. Yesterday saw some 2-3ft surf from the Eastern quadrant, with a light wind regime that enabled surfing through most of the day. Size today has eased back a half a notch into the 2ft range, with a few bigger sets, and light and variable winds have again seen glassy conditions and plenty of surfable options.

Some sets still punching above their weight, with light winds

This weekend (Dec 25 - 26)

No great change to the Xmas F/cast.  Small surf both days, with a continuing mix of swell trains from the E, along with some new, flukey S/SE groundswell from well below New Zealand for NENSW.

Expect light winds both days as a decaying trough on the Mid North Coast and weak ridge combine, with very weak pressure gradients and no real gradient wind to speak of. 

Most open beaches will see some 2ft sets through the morning Xmas Day with a few stray sets from the S/SE showing later on in the day, more likely on the Mid North Coast. Light winds will transition to light a’noon SE/NE breezes.

Boxing Day should be similar, with more swell energy south of the border from the S/SE swell source, albeit very Lully and inconsistent. That will maintain some 2ft sets at S exposed breaks, while SEQLD will see a slight easing as the background E swell signal starts to wane. Perfect for beginners and family fun with safe 1-2ft surf on hand. Expect a similar wind regime, light and variable in the morning, tending to light a’noon seabreezes.

Next week (Dec 27 onwards)

As discussed on Wed, we see a major pattern change next week after the troughy doldrums pattern this week. A strong front with severe gales passing well to the south of Tasmania sets up some S’ly groundswell early next week and a strong high pressure ridge surges up the East Coast, becoming stronger as it moves north from the Mid North Coast. 

That means we will start the week with S to SSE winds Mon as the ridge becomes established. There’ll be some long period S/SE swell in the water, likely in the 2ft range at S facing beaches, along with a weak, background signal of E swell. This will be the last day of babyfood so if you are looking for gentle surf for kids/beginners, make use of Monday.

The high pressure surge up the coast (see below) sees the focus of the strongest winds move north out of the Central NSW region through Tuesday up along the Mid North Coast and into SEQLD. 

That’s likely to see a steep increase in short range SE swell through Tues, overlaying a longer period S swell more prominent south of the border. Expect size to build from 2-3ft up into the 3-4ft range, possibly 3-5ft in NENSW, allowing for the longer period S swell and proximity to the high pressure fetch. Winds will be a factor, with mod/fresh SE winds confining clean conditions to north facing Points and Bays. Those will improve through the day. 

More of the same Wed and Thurs. The strong high pressure ridge maintains a broad coverage of SE/ESE winds through the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. Expect 3-4ft of surf through SEQLD, slightly larger 3-5ft surf in NENSW, with a slight easing trend in the south of the f/cast region as the fetch migrates northwards and pressure gradients slacken a bit on the Mid North Coast. That may see a more E’ly wind develop from Coffs southwards during Thurs, possibly tending E/SE north of Yamba. Winds should stay classic SE north of the border. 

Going into the end of 2021 and our tropics are firing up, although it seems a case of endless false alarms. 

Models have been interested in the start of the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) as the year ends, suggesting a tropical low tracking across the Northern Territory into the Gulf of Carpenteria and then across Cape York Peninsula into the Coral Sea towards the end of next week.  Major models significantly diverge on the fate and surf potential of the tropical low once it enters the sphere of the Coral Sea. 

EC maintains the low inland through the QLD interior, with a limited fetch infeeding into the system, tracking down the QLD coast and possibly stalling on the SEQLD coast as the system washes out. 

That suggests a steep increase in local E/NE swell possibly NYE or New Years Day as the infeeding fetch tracks south of Fraser Island into the SEQLD swell window. That would see a sheltered Points only 4-6ft swell through those days.

GFS stalls the low off the North QLD coast, with another separate low possibly undergoing cyclogenesis west of Vanuatu. The cradling high sees a long fetch of E/SE winds form across the Coral Sea, with excellent potential for fun E swell to eventually develop through the region, favouring SEQLD for most size.  Modelling shows the fetch extending and strengthening as any potential cyclone drifts down into the cradling high pressure ridge, suggesting a moderate/large E’ly groundswell first week of Jan.

With so much model divergence we will just have to wait and see how it pans out before making any calls into the New Year. We will monitor development closely over the weekend and report back in on Mon and see how it’s shaping up.

Check back then for a full update and in the mean-time have a great Christmas.

Seeya Mon.