Large S swell this weekend followed by SE pulse for next week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Wednesday 16th June)
- SE swell to fill in late Thursday/early Friday but it’ll only be about 2ft
- Late Friday/early Saturday a new S swell to arrive best for S swell magnets
- This S swell will quickly build throughout Saturday peaking at 10ft late Saturday for the MNC
- For N NSW waves will peak early Sunday morning around 8ft
- SE QLD will only get a fraction of the size as the swell is too S to wrap around the corner
- Winds will be strong and SW during the peak of the swell and into the start of next week
- Reinforcing S/SE swell to arrive late Monday up around the 5-6ft+ mark keeping wave height solid until the middle of next week
Yesterday we had 2ft of E to E/SE swell and with light and variable offshore winds conditions were nice. South of the border waves were a little bigger in that 2-3ft mark out of the E and winds were similar, light and offshore for most of the day.
This morning it is noticeably smaller. We have an inconsistent 1-2ft of E to SE swell. Winds are light and offshore for now so conditions are clean there just isn’t a lot of push in the swell.
The rest of this week
We have an exciting weekend ahead but before then there is a remnant E swell and new SE swell on the cards for late tomorrow into Friday.
While the charts aren’t picking up on it too well, a fetch of S/SE winds to the west and south of NZ’s South Island earlier in the week will bring a little 2ft pulse late tomorrow. While nothing too exciting it’ll bring more energy to the water than what we had today.
Winds tomorrow (Thursday) will be strong out of the NW early tending more W and strengthening as a Tasman low forms off the coast. There could be a little NE windswell south of the border but I wouldn’t expect much from it. Any bump will be ironed out with strong offshore winds along the northwestern edge of a Tasman low keeping conditions clean.
On Friday the Tasman low will really ramp up with the northwestern flank of the low directing strong W/SW winds across the region. There will only be the small SE swell and remnants of the E swell on offer but conditions will be clean.
The progression of the Tasman low has been brought forward with the southwestern flank of the low really coming to life Friday afternoon and directing a better aimed S/SE swell building quickly on Saturday, peaking Saturday afternoon for the MNC and on Sunday morning for further north.
Wave heights are looking to peak up around the 10ft mark for the MNC on Saturday afternoon while N NSW sees waves up around the 8ft mark for early Sunday morning. SE QLD will only see a fraction of this as the swell is too S.
This large surge of swell, late Saturday/into Sunday is thanks to a strengthening and broadening gale-force S/SE winds surging up the coast during Friday evening into Saturday.
Winds will be strong and W/SW for most of Saturday before they turn more S/SW on Sunday. With the strength of these winds southern corners will be the pick as the swell peaks.
Monday morning will see the swell lingering around that 6ft+ mark early before a pulse of S/SE swell arrives late on Monday keeping wave heights in that 5-6ft mark into Tuesday. Ths pulse will come from a strong fetch of winds to the west of NZ’s South Island as a ridge squeezes the isobars of the low.
For SE QLD this S/SE pulse will mean more of the swell gets around the corner resulting in a more even distribution of swell heights across the region.
Waves will be around 3ft Tuesday, a little bigger at magnets and a bit smaller inside the points. The Sunny coast will be a touch smaller.
Winds will continue to be out of the S/SW, again keeping the cleanest conditions to the southern corners.
By Wednesday the last of the swell will be filling in with waves 4ft+ south of the border before things settle towards the end of the week. While waves will be smaller there should be more options on offer.
The longer term outlook is looking promising as mid latitude lows continue to meander in from the west providing plenty of volatile weather and swell potential for us further ahead.