Lully E swell followed by S swells, autumn is here
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 1st March)
Best Days: Friday and Monday best for conditions but with easing S swell. Peak swell on Wednesday 3-4ft S swell and late Saturday/Sunday morning 4-6ft but stronger SE winds.
- E groundswell filling in late Monday into Tuesday delivering inconsistent 3-4ft sets bigger for Sunshine Coast, smaller for Mid N Coast
- 3ft S/SE wind swell filling in Tuesday late for N NSW, Wednesday for SE QLD
- Longer period 3-4ft groundswell filling in Wednesday for Mid N Coast and N NSW, late Wednesday for SE QLD. Accompanied by S/SE winds until Friday.
- Friday lighter winds lingering 2-3ft S swell
- Saturday another S change with longer period 4-6ft S swell arriving late Saturday for Mid N Coast, Sunday morning for SE QLD
- Easing Monday with lighter winds
Recap: The last days of summer were very summer-like wave wise but not really what our summer has been like. It was much smaller than what it has ben since about December but I know there were a few happy surfers finally getting a chance to rest before Autumn arrived.
On that a big warm welcome to Autumn, a stunner of a day to kick things off. Wave wise it is small, 2ft waves, with a mix of E and S swells. Winds were light and offshore early before swinging onshore with sea breezes.
The New Week
The long range E swell has started to fill in with some longer period stuff picked up on the buoys, reaching 14s at the moment. It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out and how lully it really is. Let’s hope it fills in and pulses a little.
As mentioned last week, this long range E swell will fill in later today and into Tuesday providing inconsistent 3-4ft sets. It’ll be accompanied by a smaller 2ft E trade swell until Tuesday when a S change moves up the coast.
This change will reach the Mid North Coast by the morning, N NSW by the early afternoon and the Gold Coast by late afternoon before reaching the Sunshine Coast overnight. Expect lighter winds ahead of the change so there’ll be a nice little window of smoother conditions for Coffs north, while the change arrives pre dawn for Port Macquarie.
Initially this S change will offer up a building S wind swell reaching 3ft and filing in late Tuesday/early Wednesday. It will be followed by a stronger groundswell on Wednesday for the Mid N Coast and N NSW, late on Wednesday for SE QLD. This groundswell will reach 3-4ft at S facing beaches but with S winds don’t expect to get the most of the swell and clean conditions.
The winds won’t back off until Friday. By then the swell will have eased to 2-3ft but it’s the best chance of hitting the open beaches, especially for the Mid N Coast and N NSW. SE QLD will have SE winds continue as a tropical cyclone to the north influences winds.
A S change will push into the Mid N Coast late on Friday and fill in across the entire region on Saturday. This will signal the start of a stronger bout of S swell. Various pulses of S swell fill in over the weekend due to the broad, elongated and slow moving nature of the frontal system.
This will equate to 4-6ft of S swell for S facing beaches during the prolonged peak late on Saturday, Mid N Coast and N NSW, and into Sunday, SE QLD.
S/SE winds will accompany this system so southern points and corners will have the cleanest conditions. Expect it to be smaller than S facing beaches as it loses some of it’s energy wrapping and refracting around the corner.
The S swell will begin to fade into Monday while an ENE swell begins to fill in, especially for SE QLD.
This ENE swell will originate from potential Tropical Cyclone, 99P, off northern QLD. At this stage it only mainly looks like it’ll only deliver anything of substance to SE QLD, 3-4ft for the Sunshine Coast and 2-3ft for the Gold Coast while it remains below 3ft for NSW.
As is always the case with tropical lows, don’t count your chickens before they hatch, we’ll do a more in depth analysis closer to the date.