James KC

Lully E swell followed by S swells, autumn is here

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Monday 1st March)

Best Days: Friday and Monday best for conditions but with easing S swell. Peak swell on Wednesday 3-4ft S swell and late Saturday/Sunday morning 4-6ft but stronger SE winds. 

Outlook:

  • E groundswell filling in late Monday into Tuesday delivering inconsistent 3-4ft sets bigger for Sunshine Coast, smaller for Mid N Coast 
  • 3ft S/SE wind swell filling in Tuesday late for N NSW, Wednesday for SE QLD
  • Longer period 3-4ft groundswell filling in Wednesday for Mid N Coast and N NSW, late Wednesday for SE QLD. Accompanied by S/SE winds until Friday. 
  • Friday lighter winds lingering 2-3ft S swell
  • Saturday another S change with longer period 4-6ft S swell arriving late Saturday for Mid N Coast, Sunday morning for SE QLD
  • Easing Monday with lighter winds 

Recap: The last days of summer were very summer-like wave wise but not really what our summer has been like. It was much smaller than what it has ben since about December but I know there were a few happy surfers finally getting a chance to rest before Autumn arrived. 

On that a big warm welcome to Autumn, a stunner of a day to kick things off. Wave wise it is small, 2ft waves, with a mix of E and S swells. Winds were light and offshore early before swinging onshore with sea breezes.

The New Week

The long range E swell has started to fill in with some longer period stuff picked up on the buoys, reaching 14s at the moment. It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out and how lully it really is. Let’s hope it fills in and pulses a little. 

As mentioned last week, this long range E swell will fill in later today and into Tuesday providing inconsistent 3-4ft sets. It’ll be accompanied by a smaller 2ft E trade swell until Tuesday when a S change moves up the coast. 

This change will reach the Mid North Coast by the morning, N NSW by the early afternoon and the Gold Coast by late afternoon before reaching the Sunshine Coast overnight. Expect lighter winds ahead of the change so there’ll be a nice little window of smoother conditions for Coffs north, while the change arrives pre dawn for Port Macquarie. 

Initially this S change will offer up a building S wind swell reaching 3ft and filing in late Tuesday/early Wednesday. It will be followed by a stronger groundswell on Wednesday for the Mid N Coast and N NSW, late on Wednesday for SE QLD. This groundswell will reach 3-4ft at S facing beaches but with S winds don’t expect to get the most of the swell and clean conditions. 

The winds won’t back off until Friday. By then the swell will have eased to 2-3ft but it’s the best chance of hitting the open beaches, especially for the Mid N Coast and N NSW. SE QLD will have SE winds continue as a tropical cyclone to the north influences winds. 

The Weekend

A S change will push into the Mid N Coast late on Friday and fill in across the entire region on Saturday. This will signal the start of a stronger bout of S swell. Various pulses of S swell fill in over the weekend due to the broad, elongated and slow moving nature of the frontal system. 

This will equate to 4-6ft of S swell for S facing beaches during the prolonged peak late on Saturday, Mid N Coast and N NSW, and into Sunday, SE QLD. 

S/SE winds will accompany this system so southern points and corners will have the cleanest conditions. Expect it to be smaller than S facing beaches as it loses some of it’s energy wrapping and refracting around the corner. 

New Week

The S swell will begin to fade into Monday while an ENE swell begins to fill in, especially for SE QLD. 

This ENE swell will originate from potential Tropical Cyclone, 99P, off northern QLD. At this stage it only mainly looks like it’ll only deliver anything of substance to SE QLD, 3-4ft for the Sunshine Coast and 2-3ft for the Gold Coast while it remains below 3ft for NSW.

As is always the case with tropical lows, don’t count your chickens before they hatch, we’ll do a more in depth analysis closer to the date. 

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 4:54pm

The long-range E/SE groundswell is showing nicely on the Tweed spectra, but mixed in with the lower-period trade-swell we can see the result on some of the cams.

That being close-spaced and mixed sets when they both arrive at the same time..


donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 6:23pm

Two very different swell periods from the same direction are always a nightmare on the SE Qld/Nth NSW beaches. Generally you get the long range groundswell sets always contaminated by the shorter period swell, creating shitty double ups.

vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 7:37pm

Totally agree with two different swell periods, very evident at the D-BAH this afternoon. Bomb set followed by another really short period wave.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 8:03pm

Yep not ideal at all. I find the best combo is windswell mixed in with stronger swell to break up the lines. Obviously on a beach only. 

JackStance's picture
JackStance's picture
JackStance Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 3:40pm

boogtastic

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 6:03pm

2 days into a 3 week camping holiday...some fun little wedges already and an active looking forecast...welcome back Autumn :)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 6:04pm

Lovely small beachies over the weekend and this AM, 2ft+ in my hood and very inconsistent but super smooth and glassy. Perfect for the kids too.

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 7:29pm

Yessir, indeed. Silky dawn 2fters for most of the past week. Thoroughly enjoyable on the foamie. If the right bank is running, size doesn't matter a heck of a lot.

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 6:39pm

Super fun and clean on central sunny coast beachie for hours this morn. Felt that uptick in period and some size out the east, not too lully either, nearly consistent actually. Hope you got some Tom.

vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess's picture
vbaaccess Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 7:35pm

Surfed D-BAH on the low tide this afternoon, 3-4 feet easterly tradeswell definitely building but very inconsistent. The above surf forecast concurs with what I would predicted for the coming week. James has a good handle on the surf reporting. I could not do any better. BTW, surfed a really good right and left peak incoming high tide over the weekend with little crowds. Just so show you can get uncrowded surf on the Gold Coast if you know where to look.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 7:39pm

15-16 second E swell really filled in here in the 2 hrs before dark.

Was a lot more consistent than I thought it might be.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 10:29pm

I have never seen a potential cyclone swell with so little froth.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 7:09am

too close to the coast to do much good

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 8:01am

No fetch aimed at the coast and it moves super fast to the SE. That all points to Fck all swell coming our way.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 4:10pm

That's never really made a dent on the froth, though. Perhaps there's a degree of maturity kicking in....or is it an attempt at a reverse-Murphy to make the thing go against the models...?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 6:57pm

Reverse-Murphy. Love it!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 7:02pm

Isn't that yhpruM? ;)

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 10:52am

Discerning consumers.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 4:00pm

Why are the models showing bigger east swell for SEQ tomorrow than today and really big for late sat into Sunday for nnsw? Seems much more than what this fcst suggests....

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 6:57pm

They're combining the two E'ly swells. Combining the E'ly tradeswell and the long range E'ly groundswells into one swell, which adds them together making the swell forecast look larger than what it actually is. And as for the weekend looks like Autumn is coming with Sly swells firing up, albeit it looks to be combining multiple S'ly swells there also.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 7:32pm

Was pumping on dark.

Solid sets.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 7:51pm

Sucks when the southerly coincides with school get out. Crowded and fat but some okay sets every 20 mins

hamishbro's picture
hamishbro's picture
hamishbro Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 7:55pm

Crappy surf report for Ballina in Sunday morning. Something like “2ft of slow swell good for kiddies but don’t get too excited”. So take my kids down to the beach (30 minute drive) with foamies only and instead find super fun 2-3ft peakie and punchie beaches with the occasional barrel. Definitely a 5/10 if not more. Pretty lousy to under call what was a super fun day.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Tuesday, 2 Mar 2021 at 9:51pm

This morning was very fun indeed.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Wednesday, 3 Mar 2021 at 9:27am

Great day of waves. Definitely some around here that went into the excellent range! (by others) Way more consistent then expected

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Wednesday, 3 Mar 2021 at 10:04am

Bit rude of Huey to throw down straight E’ly winds today.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Wednesday, 3 Mar 2021 at 12:20pm

Shoulda been here yesterday

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Wednesday, 3 Mar 2021 at 7:06pm

Looks like the early report honeymoon is over...

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Wednesday, 3 Mar 2021 at 7:59pm

hhmm...