Time to plan other activities away from the coast

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 13th November)

Best Days: No great days. Maybe a few small peaky beachies Sat a'noon (Mid North Coast) and then Sun (elsewhere). Maybe Mon AM for early light winds and a small, inconsistent E'ly swell too. But not worth worrying about.

Recap: Small residual swells and northerly winds have resulted in minimal surfing opportunities over the last few days. 

Small bumpy leftovers on the Tweed this arvo

This weekend (Nov 14 - 15)

No change to the weekend forecast. We've essentially got no new swells of any note on the way.

Freshening northerly winds today will generate peaky N’ly winsdswells on Saturday, but conditions north of Ballina will remain wind affected all day as the northerlies persist.

South from Ballina, we’ll see a gradual improvement as a coastal trough influences the region from the Mid North Coast, spreading northwards through the morning. There’s still risk of northerly winds across all locations, though it’s more likely to be NW here and we’ll eventually see variable winds settle into most regions south from Yamba by the early afternoon. This may allow for a small peaky afternoon session at the open beaches but won’t expect much more than a slow 2ft wave at north-facing swell magnets. 

The trough should then push across into the Northern Rivers and SE Qld overnight, bringing light variable winds to most regions, then possibly a return S’ly flow into Sunday at some point (though likely to be confined to a hundred kays either side of the border, with light variable winds tending onshore elsewhere). 

Model guidance has the northerly flow persisting off SE Qld into Saturday night but then easing steadily through the early hours of Sunday morning. This means whatever local windswell we pick up through Saturday will be on the downwards trend by first light Sunday, so you’ll have to make the most of it. Most beaches will probably struggle with 1-1.5ft of weak surf but a handful of exposed north facing swell magnets may see early 2ft+ sets if we’re lucky. 

Expect smaller size south from Ballina from this source on Sunday.

The trough won’t have any trailing strength on its southern and western flanks, so south swell prospects are minimal at best.

Sunday afternoon may see small pulse of mid-range E’ly swell from a weak trough in the north-eastern Tasman Sea, but I’m not expecting much surf (as has been the case all week). If we’re lucky we’ll pick up a few slow 2ft sets. Again, keep your expectations low. 

Next week (Nov 16 onwards)

The only notable feature for next week is a building ridge across the coast from late Tuesday thru’ Wednesday that’ll freshen S/SE winds across the region.

However, the won’t be much surf on offer. 

Sunday’s late E’ly swell may persist into Monday morning with inconsistent 2ft sets at open beaches, before easing through the day. Early light winds will freshen from the NE through the day as a trough approaches from the south. 

A series of strong fronts trailing the trough through into the lower Tasman Sea will be poorly aligned but they’ll kick up a couple of days of useful south swell for Northern NSW - but unfortunately, local winds will create problems at the beaches picking up any size. This swell should provide 3-4ft sets at south facing beaches south of Byron on Wednesday, easing Thursday, but it’ll be much smaller elsewhere and SE Qld won’t pick up much more than a coupe of stray 2ft sets at exposed northern ends. 

The mid-week coastal ridge looks pretty uninteresting too, even for SE Qld - maybe some weak 1-2ft waves across the outer Gold Coast points if we’re lucky.

The rest of the long term outlook looks equally drab with nothing of any great interest to get excited about.

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Comments

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 6:30pm

Shit thats the worst headline I've seen all year! No hope in the foreseeable future...
Bring on the wave pools

_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_ Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 7:21pm

Agree. No need to read the forecast notes until maybe next Friday.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 7:27pm

Oh c'mon! After all the effort I put in.. please read 'em!

_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_'s picture
_Bodhi_ Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 7:35pm

Okay, sorry mate. I shouldn’t be so disheartened, there might be some hidden gems within your detailed notes.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 8:12pm

Erm.. to quote myself... keep your expectations low. Haha!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 7:35pm

Spring

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 7:56pm

Interesting 2 to 3 hour window of offshore winds around lunch today in between the northerlies. How does this come about?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 8:11pm

Local thunderstorms disrupting the synoptic flow. 

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 10:34pm

I see, thanks mate, should have capitalised on it however thought it was gonna last the arvo.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 8:22pm

Did a little drive by surf check today of Town Beach Port Mac. They’ve got the Aus Open surfing comp on over the weekend. There was two Surfing NSW cars in the carpark watching forlornly the horrid 1-2ft windslop. I laughed.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 8:40pm

Was it not “contestable”?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 8:23pm

mid-november and spring is finally sprung.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 11:10pm

Yup. And again I propose that the seasons are getting later each year.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Saturday, 14 Nov 2020 at 8:19am

Yep, it’s definitely a pattern now

JackStance's picture
JackStance's picture
JackStance Saturday, 14 Nov 2020 at 1:29pm

completely agree, have been observing it for years.. which is a spec of dust in the billions of years of things

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 13 Nov 2020 at 9:20pm

Perhaps some other activities away from the coast like this:

linez's picture
linez's picture
linez Sunday, 15 Nov 2020 at 6:05pm

Haha, you onboard vj?

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Sunday, 15 Nov 2020 at 10:09pm

VJ.... How in the... did you come across..

...never mind.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Saturday, 14 Nov 2020 at 6:58am

Why do you have to find activities away from the coast?

Plenty of coastal activities that aren’t surfing.

freeride, I’m sure will share his best fishing spots too.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 14 Nov 2020 at 7:05am

Erm, it wasn't an instruction.

Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement Saturday, 14 Nov 2020 at 8:27am

Very entertaining reading. Thanks

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 14 Nov 2020 at 11:35am

had a ball this morning in some fun little babyfood peaks , expecting freezing water and was surprised to find it board short warm.
high tide trevally fishing in a lake went off just afterwards.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 15 Nov 2020 at 3:23pm

Coupla small peelers at Snapper this arvo.

Meanwhile, the tide's so low at Caloundra, it's sunbaking time on the inside bank.

Tiny at Noosa.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Sunday, 15 Nov 2020 at 3:39pm

https://art19.com/shows/dirty-water?month=11&year=2020
Alright skip to about 35 min in does occy really feel entitled to talk about etiquette out at snapper

JackStance's picture
JackStance's picture
JackStance Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 5:36pm

worst human on earth.. new him very very very well for 15 years..

Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic's picture
Plasticspastic Sunday, 15 Nov 2020 at 9:09pm

well actually a couple of nice 1-2 footers this morning south goldy beachies...
thanks to the northerly flow from the last 2 days. which were captured and conditions good with little south wind.. good till 10ish......

spring sessions..

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 7:21am

Super glassy this morning, and a few fun lil' peelers at Snapper.



udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 7:37am

Change of camera location ?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 7:38am

No. Just a full morning tide.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Monday, 16 Nov 2020 at 8:32am

still going to take these small days as win in November. No wind and fun beachies.