Strong cyclone swell ahoy!
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 12th February)
Best Days: Thurs/Fri: building, sizeable cyclone swell peaking Thurs in SE Qld and Fri in Northern NSW, only suitable for sheltered locations. Sat/Sun: initially strong but rapidly easing surf in Northern NSW, with good beaches in SE Qld. Lots of fun waves next week too, initially small then a good SE swell.
Recap: Surf size maintained 3-4ft sets across SE Qld on Tuesday, slightly bigger south of the border with 4ft+ sets, and 4-5ft+ across parts of the Mid North Coast. Wave heights have eased a little across the Mid North Coast today, but muscled up ever so slightly throughout Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, with sets in the 3-5ft range. What’s interesting is that whilst this size increase is sourced anecdotally (and from yours truly), including a corresponding swing in the swell direction, the regional buoy network doesn’t support these observations so I’m a little cautious to use them as a proxy for inbound energy. We are however seeing new lines of cyclone swells at Agnes Water (see below), so we know it’s on the way!
Nice lines of building cyclone swell at Agnes Water this afternoon
Chunky sets across the Narrowneck stretch
Plenty of energy at D'Bah
This week (Feb 13 - 14)
On the balance, there are no major changes to the Forecaster Notes for this upcoming cyclone swell event.
There are a few small points of discussion worth tabling though.
Thursday will see a step-ladder increase in surf size through the day. Since Tuesday, TC Uesi has been nicely positioned within our swell window, though its initial developments were slightly off axis. It’s really only been the last 24 hours where NE gales have had time to generate strong, (relatively) long period surf for our region.
To give some bearing, TC Uesi is expected to be at Port Macquarie latitudes by Friday morning. However, most of the swell generating fetch (relative to our coasts) will be on TC Uesi’s south and east flanks, which means by Friday morning, our swell window will effectively shut down - though remember, there is a half to one day lag on the swell's arrival.
As mentioned on Monday, SE Qld will see the upwards trend and peak size earlier than locations to the south. As a general rule of thumb, late Thursday will probably see the biggest waves across the Sunshine and Gold Coast, whilst early Friday is more likely across Northern NSW (early afternoon across the Mid North Coast). However, its forward speed will result in a much shorter peak of maximum of surf size, so let’s hope it doesn’t peak under the cover of darkness Thursday night (SE Qld is at greatest risk of this happening).
For what it’s worth, I think TC Uesi is travelling a little too fast (and also slightly off-axis of the swell window) to allow for a captured fetch scenario, which could otherwise significantly enhance wave heights.
We also have to remember that TC Uesi will spend a greater amount of time in the swell window for more southern locations (i.e. Mid North Coast) than northern locations (i.e. Sunshine Coast), which means when assessing the overall size potential, we’ll probably see the largest waves south of the border for this event.
One of the interesting points about the peak in size is that we’ll see a concurrent mix of swell trains in the water.
There’ll be a mix of smaller NE swell being overtaken by larger E/NE swell, and late Friday will see a new E’ly tending E/SE mid-range swell (mainly just the Mid North Coast), originating from a new E’ly tending E/SE fetch across TC Uesi’s southern flank, as it pushes against a ridge to the southwest and decouples its internal structure under an extra-tropical transition.
Because each beach responds to different combinations of swell sizes, periods and directions (and tides!), you can be sure that your local will undergo a number of significant mood changes throughout the day as each swell train pulses and ebbs.
So, how much size?
TC Uesi is a great looking system, and we’re going to see some sizeable waves over the coming days. Exposed Northern NSW coasts should reach 8-10ft at the height of the swell on Friday (earlier in the north, later in the south), and we’ll probably see smaller surf across SE Qld (say, late Thursday 8ft+ Gold Coast, 6-8ft Sunshine Coast). Expect an easing trend across SE Qld on Friday, whilst wave heights will be reaching a peak in Northern NSW.
Local winds are the only wildcard, as they’ll tend anti-clockwise as TC Uesi passes to our south. We’ll see freshening SE tending S’ly winds across northern regions on Thursday, but freshening easterlies are a risk across the Mid North Coast. Into Friday, winds will become S’ly across most of Northern NSW - moderate to fresh at times in the morning, but easing through the day. Conversely, we’ll see SW breezes throughout SE Qld.
This weekend (Feb 15 - 16)
And as quickly as it came, it looks like the departure will also be swift over the weekend. Though, conditions look great with mainly light winds.
Wave heights will ease steadily on Saturday, with early sets around 3-5ft across SE Qld, 4-6ft throughout much of Northern NSW and some bigger bombs across the Mid North Coast, thanks to the secondary E/SE swell. However, size will be easing steadily from the get go and by mid-late morning will be down by a foot or two, before levelling out into Sunday.
All in all, lots of fun options just about everywhere this weekend.
Next week (Feb 17 onwards)
Steady trades will provide fun small beachies across most open stretches for Monday and early Tuesday.
Ex-TC Uesi will merge with a cold front in the Southern Ocean on Sunday, near the SW tip of New Zealand’s South Island. This will result in strengthening S/SE gales, that will tend more SE and slide below the South Island into Monday and Tuesday (see below).
This will be better aimed towards Southern NSW but we’ll see some nice waves across Northern NSW mid-week. The first SE swell will build throughout Tuesday afternoon (2-3ft sets), with larger waves filling in later Wednesday and Thursday. Max surf size should reach about 4-5ft at south facing beaches though it’ll be smaller elsewhere, and I’m not expecting much across SE Qld, just a few stray 2-3ft sets at the exposed northern end of the Gold Coast (smaller on the Sunshine Coast).
The long term still has tropical cyclone potential in and around the Fijian region, though it’s a long time away and will probably occur in our far swell window, which will limit surf size. So, there’s no shortage of options to look forward to, but future significant swell events will more than likely be sourced more locally.
So, that’s it for now - see you Friday!
Comments
“Steady trades will provide fun small beachies across most open stretches for Monday and early Tuesday.”
....if we got any beaches left....
Yay I can't wait to surf crowded snapper and kirra and dodge all the cunts getting in the way on the open face and dropping in time and again. And the smell of jetski fumes always makes my day even better.
Have you ever considered that crowded Snapper is a great thing? It draws in a massive crowd of GC surfers to one location, leaving other locations far less crowded
Lack of fumes and plenty of space (if you want it) just a touch south Rockethut
Take me with you on the next swell and I'll bring the pipe.
Got some crackers this morning on the Sunny Coast. Yesterday around lunchtime was awesome too. Been a great week.
Plenty of waves round
Tweed buoy been knocked out?
Looks to be the case, though prob just a transmission failure.
Here we go! Swell already looking strong, and we're still 12+ hours away from the peak.
As expected, Noosa looking a treat.
Be mad if the Coolum surf cam got fixed one day...
It's still streaming fine, just not panning.
I'm heading up there in the next fortnight to upgrade a bunch of cams, this one will be included.
Colours changing minute-by-minute at Snapper with the regional rain/sunrise combo.
Agnes still pulling in some fun sets.
Now I know why my colleague from work moved back there. Beats Townsville swell ;)
Swell to the side for one moment.. we've had another wet 24 hours (in fact it really hasn't stopped raining for the last week). Since 9am yesterday:
Clothiers Creek (just behind Cabarita) recorded 162mm (747mm in the last eight days)
Kingscliff recorded 132mm (718mm in the last eight days)
Cudgera Creek (Pottsville) recorded 122mm (758mm in the last eight days)
Upper Burringbar Rd recorded 225mm (551mm in the last eight days)
Belongil recorded 83mm (606mm in the last eight days)
Tallow Ck Bridge recorded 95mm (611mm in the last eight days)
Cape Byron recorded 95mm (603mm in the last eight days)
Ballina Airport recorded 60mm (480mm in the last eight days)
Wooli recorded 189mm (574mm in the last eight days)
Ben, wow 225mm in less24 hours. We had 486.5mm here Mid North Coast over 3 days. Total 508 for the 4 days. Garage got flash flooded. With flow through Smiths Lake is now half a meter off from being full.
http://new.mhl.nsw.gov.au/Site-209465
Adelaide had 358.0 MM......
last year
"OK lads, who's up for the next set? Was it you Jason, or Daniel, was it your turn? I can't remember".
Yeh.....Nah, you guys can have that. When it gets like that down here, I'll throw in the towel:( sooo sad.
Hahaha, yeah just watched it for a few minutes. Can you imagine the carnage out there?
Big set breaking out past the Boiling Pot.
And here's what it did:
Kirra is pumping.
Sunshine Coast - 230mm of rain in the past 24 hours. Disgusting river water at Alex.
Bucketing down in Byron , swell strong ish. Definitely got a cyclone swell look to it.
Add low clouds and steel grey ocean, and yep looks cyclonic.
Looks bigger now. East swell reverse sweep too so adds to the crowd.
Deep!
Lord Howe set for a flogging eh
ECMWF has the cyclone passing just to the east of LHI.
GFS has it passing right over the top.
Must be nice living somewhere with a point and offshore wind.
SE Qld rainfall figures to 9am are equally impressive:
Tewantin - 157mm
Coolum - 217mm
Sunshine Coast Airport - 232mm
Maroochydore - 140mm
Cape Moreton - 158mm
South Straddie - 186mm
Gold Coast Seaway - 178mm
Miami - 165mm
Burleigh Waters - 161mm
Cooly Airport - 146mm
9:31 on the snapper cam. Watch the replay old mate gets a bomb.
Wow!
Surely that's the wave of the day
Holy shit that's amazing! The whole pack is all losing it afterwards. I think that might be Sheldon Simkus. You can see the water angle here,
Sick of the crowds at Noosa? There are big empty lefts reeling off at Sunshine.
Just gotta paddle out, that's all.
One hell of a paddle Ben...
Put on your big boy pants !!!
To the 4 fellas at Noosa doing Jetski shuttles. Slim chance you're reading this, but you're a cunt.
Your waves are free for all, don't be surprised if you see this bald fella dropping in on you.
hugs n kisses xxx
Gold comment WF. Was watching the came thinking its hardly tow assist size - wankers
People are shit. Just watched them towing in instead. Why even pretend to catch a wave yourself.
They're still out there now, chopping it up for everyone. Taser, anyone?
Not a bad size for First Point Noosa!
How's these sets steaming through Nationals.
Garbage around byron, too big everywhere outta the bay, and the bay is terrible, didn’t both checking Lennox but imagine that’s the only place any good with a snapper-esque crowd
Noosa is a circus with swell , sunshine some spots looked surfable but you need goood arms
There’s all of about 3-4 spots in SE QLD that can handle these swells. I never bother anymore. I have my plans on the back end.
Maroochy River mouth had a cranking left in some very muddy water. Long paddle. Mooloolaba is firing up too.
Brisbane buoy (off North Straddie) looking great on the spectral.
Lunchtime options at Middleton, South Oz. Sorry, Rainbow/Greenmount/Cooly.
Haha - nice Ben, safe to say we've found the max size for the bank right now.
Noosa looks bigger now. Still not jet-ski assist size though....what absolute wankers.
Much fuller and fatter with the midday high tide. Still some lovely walls through First Point though (how's the cutty in the second frame!).
It’s not just Noosa that’s firing on the SC today... not too often we sunny coasters get the pick of the conditions on these swells but I can’t think of anywhere I’d rather be today. Man... almost surfed out. Almost.
A few people in the comments are saying it was Parko including one who said he has the footage, he must be the guy you see filming at the end. I guess the footage will be all over social media in the near future
Wish I was back at noosa. Claudia and even Damien produced good waves here on the Gacoyne coast but nothing like the east coast.
Tweed has been declared natural disaster area
By the local surfers re: wave quality?
Not ironically, literally:
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/regional/breaking-tweed-declar...
To be fair, there are fucking potholes everywhere at the moment.
Hows the superwank? I mean superbank? bahahahahaha....
And Kirra looks like a joke. Currumbin alley no good.... Burleigh no good.....
Basically we have a decent 6 foot cyclone swell hitting the gold coast, but just 2 sections ( outside snapper and wiiiiiiide kirra) handling it. This exact same swell during the 70s, 80, or 90s would have at least 5 points lit af. Kirra and little groyne kirra would've been epic today
Maybe reassess the situation when the swell direction goes more ESE-SE and the winds improve.
The surfing version of Soggy Sao
Heard some poor lass got stuck at Enos and was getting smashed against the rocks for 5 minutes before some legend went down the cliff and saved her life. Sounded heavy but great job mate!
Noosa on the cook
Cook as in burning carnts. That's so poor!
How’s old matey? Next level kookery.
Goodness gracious me, how's the etiquette.
There's officially too many people on the planet and surfing's officially ruined, officially.
Unbelievable burn.
Can see how it would happen:
&list=PLqWseOMDUsq3HPkK2j1vZKem6m2iT09tI ) and/or no generic pop-out boards allowed??-deep in the barrel, steep wall, can't actually see over the shoulder and see (the dude) inside the barrel
-dude in the barrel might have paddled around everyone or come fresh from the beach -not waiting his turn
-dude in the barrel may have gotten too many barrells already??
-blatant drop in..?????
Hard to judge what's going on without being out there, GC and SC are always a shit fight -do what Mick Fanning does -whistle, or, make lots of noise, go really fast, wear a helmet and hold a lance, wear a mask, act any kind of crazy, grunt a whole lot, don't swear but just paddle up to people and ask them really perplexing questions to throw them off.
Start a punk band?
Maybe part of the Gold Coast surfing reserve protection legislation should include clauses about mandatory fun (
4 Jetskis @ head high Noosa
One guy just did a jet ski step off at Nationals
LOL
Not sure why the trailers for these skis aren’t being targeted at the boat ramps they launched from.
A cordless angle grinder employed by a concerned Coronavirus masked citizen sends quite the message.
Not something I'd ever do, but: razor blade to the tyre valve -subtle and effective.
Some people only understand consequences.
You beauty!
aaaannndd now there's a ski at Snapper!!!! what is wrong with people
Another sick one at 4:12pm Snapper cam.
was gonna say same thing. Good to see it wasn't a step off one either. Coned off his nut!
Amazing. I love the cam replays, you can go back only 45mins or an hour previous and scroll along the time line to the moment a set wave approaches
I hope DHD provides us with another kook of the day clip this cyclone!
Says the guy who doesn’t have a ski, has very sore arms and 2 over the falls in 4 hrs. I would of loved a ski!
FYI noosa was way above head high, too big, wrong angle, and tide too high. But it seemed like there was 3 swells in the water, which could cancel out the former.
Chundering through at Snapper.
No shortage of size.
Kirra ain't really handling the sets.
Anyone using a ski is fair game for dropping in on.
Dangerous! Like playing chicken with a car towing a pointed skateboard at night
'Chundering'.......I like that as an adjective to describe the surf, Ben.
Good work!
wow , Kirra is a mess.
massive here on dark. breaking way the fuck out there.
hopefully rideable tomoz.
Wore my RC watch today. Got a chip in on the bommie outside Eno's/middle of T tree. 38kmh 648m. Came in at Little Cove. Did the run around to TT four times. I'm beat.
Bloody hell. Well done!
Crazy!! Very well done.
That makes me happy!
Bloody good effort.
Anyone care to put a size on things today?
Seemed to generally come in pretty close to expectations but I would prefer a few more opinions to validate wave heights.
6-8 sunny. Lots of empty good looking waves on the northern open stretch
6ft down most of the goldy
6-8 easy at snapper from when I was down there, 2 till 630ish.
(Edit - bomb clean up sets behind the rock/north froggies easily 8ft+ on further memory recall)
Arm still fucked a solid beating a local slab on monday. So many waves missed.
Just North of Coffs hammered. 800mm thus far in feb, Tues night we got 190mm from 9-12pm. Looking forward to some swell and kind winds. Well deserved, paddle arms in good shape from brooming flood water.
I've gotta say, it was nice to surf Kirra today (with only a few hundred of my closest friends) without jetskis in the lineup.
Previous swells - as many of you have commented on- have been a debacle with skis running the in-crowd back up to the take off to wait for the next set.
Nice to think that maybe law and order has been reset.
Sounds like they heard noosa is fair game and headed there.
Strange, I didn’t see anyone get angry at Noosa today. Did people get angry at them in person when they were at the goldy?
I can't say for either location.
They were dishing out fines at Kirra and snapper during Oma and there seems to be a lot less skis this swell in cooly, and there have been swells smaller than this with a lot of skis.
Mainly sticking to Currumbin where I don't think there's any paddlers at the moment.
just saw 4 skis on the kirra cam.........
There's a bloke on this first frame, at Kirra.
Lots of wash-throughs though.
But... between sets...
The wash throughs are kind of cool though: always wanted to take off outside (wide) of snapper and (cruise) surf the wash throughs all the way into Kirra. If one picks the right line, should be a barrel at the end.
Noosa is a fraction of the size this morning. But looking very pretty.
Agnes Water on the pump!
Still some sizeable lefts at Sunshine Beach.
Alex Headland looking quite attractive.
There's a lotta water moving through at Snapper. No wonder the lineup is empty.
What's also incredible is how most of Northern NSW looks to be in the 10ft range - out of the eastern quadrant - yet Byron looks much, much smaller. It's probably due to the low tide, and will undoubtably change a lot throughout the day, but I haven't see anything bigger than 1-2ft at The Pass yet. The bombie in the middle of the Bay is bigger but still, not that big relative to the regional swell size.
(As a side note, I'm really stoked with the dual cam setup at Byron, as per the images below - this way we get a tight zoom on the action, but also a wide angle showing what's happening right across the Bay).
Both frames below taken at exactly the same time.
Would you say swell is to big and strong and focusing all it's energy on the outside hence it being way smaller at the pass or just wrong angle of swell/tide?
Yep, the magic numbers are all wrong for Byron right now.
Watched it for a while last night and there was so much water pushing wide that there were surging waves breaking back in towards the rocks (in a westerly direction). Super strange !
Does the pass ever get over 4 foot on the actual bank that people surf?
Maybe the odd 6 foot behind the rock on higher tides but very rare.
Seems to do much better on medium swells with the right angle.
No one at snapper?
Empty on the cams
Too much sweep.
Correct me if I'm wrong, Ben but yesterday morn the swell was N of E and today S of E?
Yep.
Paddled out next to the key hole, took about a dozen waves on the head, finally got out to clean water. had a look round to see there was only 6-8 people in the line up. By the time I got to get a wave there was a hungry pack of at least twenty - thirty . Big lulls then big clean up sets with a lot of energy. Stoked just to be out there. Good buzz and generally good behaviour mixed with the odd drop in fuckers.
Difficult to put a size on it this morning, but I'd put the Tweed Coast around 10ft, give or take.
Unreal photo
Thanks mate.
Beautiful - if those people weren't in the way, this photo would be frameable on the wall in my office.
Incredible, reverse Nias!
Some raw footage of Boiling pot Noosa yesterday morning. Swell grew a lot bigger throughout the day as well
https://m.
&t=1459sSick one at 28:10
Oh, Kirra.
No respect in the lineup
Big angry beachbreak wedges this morning with zero crowd with a joy ride rip out the back. One happy yeti,
Way out the back of South palmy looked mean as anything this morning...boys out with skis having a ripper start to the weekend!
High tide and the 9 mile bombie is breaking.
It's insane down here in Manly, 10ft late morning, possibly touch bigger now :o
Wow - compare Noosa to this time yesterday.
Just as crowded though!
Worse. Had some cunt bail his board directly Infront of me without even looking.
6-10ft here. bombs.
Much much better here today than yesterday, waves in the bay easy 4-5 + looking like the ments, never seen so many barrels here in the 4 years I’ve lived up this way .
Stoked af
The Pass is maybe 2ft, perhaps 2-3ft if we're lucky. And this is with both the morning low tide, and the arvo high.
Incredible that it's eight to ten feet elsewhere. Magic numbers at play for sure.
Chocolate milkshakes coming out of the Tweed!
The Manly cam is doing a great job at sapping my productivity.
not really magic numbers, during most big swells the Pass is a reform, sometimes a reform of a reform.
Wasn't even breaking at all during Oma.
Wreck was solid this morning, as were some of the outer bombies.
Apparently a south end lake spot has raw sewerage from a broken pipe with signs up to steer clear, I'd give it a miss for a day or two if you're down there.
Still sizey and plenty of push this afternoon.
it was a big mistake getting the 6'6"and not the 7'6", by the time I went home, fed the chooks and came back Huey had cranked the dial right up.....nightmare on elm street getting off the rocks.
What were the waves like ?
Did anyone score ?
affirmative
Saw you standing there for ages, thought you showed good patience FR.
Yeah fucking undergunned!
That 6’6” would’ve felt small, my 7’2” felt pretty small.
And Glen Curtis toying with it like it’s 3 foot.
Bloody solid in my books Blowin.
Usual story, the power and amount of water moving was significant.
Wore a 6ft double up on the head on the way out and on the way in.
Finger depressions in the rails I’m sure :)
Good on ya!
Noosa this morning.
Nice shot from above of a once pristine location, but a shitfight circus below...... it is now, unfortunately. Increased population growth is awesome for Australia just ask any politician.
More people=more growth= more jobs=more taxes,=more, more, more of everything good.... right?
Not so popular sunny coast point was pumping on the high tide today... only a handful of people out as well!!
Cyclone Harold is hitting Vanuatu.
Most interesting is Cyclone overrides coronavirus lockdown.
Excuse my Social Distancing...I'm crashing yer hidey hole.
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1894245/monster-storm-strengthens-in-p...