thermalben

Average offerings this week; next week looks amazing

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 24th June)

Best Days: Small waves at protected spots all week under a persistent SE airstream. Large E'ly swell building over the weekend, holding through next week.

Recap: S’ly swells persisted over the weekend, offering very small waves throughout SE Qld but larger surf to 4-5ft at south facing beaches south of Byron. Winds have been generally out of the southern quadrant with pockets of W/SW thru’ SW winds early mornings over the weekend, with a more general coverage today in Northern NSW. A new SE swell started to fill in across Northern NSW this afternoon, though it hasn’t really shown north of the border yet.

Small Monday lunchtime runners at Snapper Rocks

Next week (June 25 - 28)

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

We’ve got two swell sources for the next few days. 

The new SE swell filling into Northern NSW this afternoon will level out into Tuesday, originating from the weakening remnants of the Tasman Low that generated the most recent S’ly swells. South facing beaches south of the border should manage 3-5ft sets, though it’ll be much smaller elsewhere, and we’ll see wave heights easing into Wednesday. 

There will however be a stronger S’ly groundswell component in the water by Tuesday afternoon. The polar low responsible for this upcoming long period event displayed some amazing wind strengths over the weekend, though, we have to be mindful when assessing ASCAT data because the map projection distorts the width of the fetch (making it look bigger than it is).

Still, because there were a passage of intense lows one after the other, generating a sustained, active sea state, I’m confident that we’ll see some impressive long period energy, providing solid waves at south facing beaches south of the border. It'll be very inconsistent at times but anywhere in the 3-5ft range at south facing beaches from about lunchtime Tuesday onwards, though much smaller elsewhere. 

Freshening SE winds are expected across many regions on Tuesday, so conditions will be a little ordinary, though isolated pockets of SW winds are possible in the morning. 

North of the border we’ll see similar conditions for the next couple of days (freshening SE winds, possibly SW early a few spots) and a similar combo of swells, though much smaller in size. Outer Gold Coast points should push into the 2-3ft range and it’ll be bigger (though wind affected) at exposed northern ends, however the Sunny Coast will probably see smaller surf size overall. With these winds, you’ll need to look for some sheltered.

Both swells will ease through Wednesday though the downwards trend will be arrested by a gradual increase in short-to-mid-period E’ly swell, generated by a broad though only modest ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea and Coral Sea. This should maintain 2-3ft+ surf throughout most open beaches for the rest of the week (smalelr at protected spots), possibly nudging a little higher into Friday as the ridge strengthens (Thursday) but with mainly cross-onshore winds, conditions won’t be great. 

Again, isolated pockets of SW winds are possible but really, this pattern is only good for locations offering a partial degree of shelter from the wind, but also open enough to pick up most of the swell. So, expect patchy options in general.

This weekend (June 29 - 30)

We’ve got a significant E’ly swell on the cards for next week, and the weekend should see an increase from the early stages of the same broad scale parent system.

Whilst the primary driver is a slow moving tropical low developing near New Caledonia later this week, an equal influencer will be a large, stationary high over new Zealand, extending a ridge from the East Coast of Australia through to the South Pacific. It’s very impressive on the charts (see below).

Early indications are for a fairly steady upwards trend from Saturday morning, with 3-4ft surf building to 4-5ft throughout the day ahead of 5-6ft surf early Sunday building to 6ft, maybe even 6-8ft by late in the day (there may be a slight delay on this upwards trend south from about Yamba).

Even better, local winds look like improving rapidly on Saturday, easing to become light and variable through the afternoon and into Sunday. Let’s refine the size and timing outlook in Wednesday’s update. But in short: well worth booking a weekend session into the diary. 

Next week (July 1 onwards)

The length and strength of the fetch associated with this E’ly system looks very impressive in the current model runs, but what I like even more is its stationary position. This should help to boost wave heights slightly above model guidance. 

Monday morning is likely to see an initial peak in size some some exposed spots pulling in 6-8ft+ sets. In addition, it looks like a regional blocking pattern will allow this tropical low to push southwards into the Tasman Sea early in the week, bringing maintain the E’ly fetch but pushing it a little more to the south, swinging the swell direction to the east-southeast and south-east as the week progresses. 

Either way, currently expectations are for elevated E'ly swells for quite some time across our region. 

Additionally, we’ll see small underlying long period S’ly swells next week from a series of intense though poorly aligned polar lows moving under Tasmania later this week and into the weekend.

So.. it’s shaping up to be quite an active time frame ahead. More in Wednesday’s notes.

Comments

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 6:33pm

Finally some decent prospective swell ahead with hopefully offshore winds. It only took a year for the stars to align....now let's see how the banks fair....

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 6:42pm

No sand on any of the Points down here, so it's going to be extremely challenging finding a go out when this swell hits.

we are in the worst place possible right now to receive a swell from this direction and size.

I predict a lot of duck diving in close-out beachies and five million people scrapping around close-outs at Main beach Byron.

dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000's picture
dangerouskook2000 commented Monday, 24 Jun 2019 at 8:20pm

Although we need south swells for the longshore drift, I love east swells. Hey FR maybe the outside banks will break if its enough size. I surfed the outside banks last week when we got that big south swell and got 3 fun ones. Bit sweepy. Depends on the wind predominantly out there tho

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 9:15am

cue froth.....................

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 10:19am

whats the sand sich at the Superbank now?

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 12:15pm

I've been in Indo but on return saw on the other website had a little clip of tiny snapper a week or so ago and there looks to be a good bit of sand.
No idea about down into greeny etc.

linez's picture
linez's picture
linez commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 1:58pm

Fr, in a word, terrible. All the GC points are pretty much shot to pieces. The odd section here and there but on the whole a shadow of normal. Can't remember seeing it as bad in a long, long time.

riley.willemse's picture
riley.willemse's picture
riley.willemse commented Wednesday, 26 Jun 2019 at 1:08pm

Pathetic- has not had good shape for over a year- even these sth swell have not done much. A small amount has come to snapper to marli rocks, then a massive hole and a small section at greenie with 100 longboards on it every day. This swell will completely ruin it. Currumbin/burleigh not a grain of sand.... Its become beyond a joke.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 11:31am

Yessssss

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 1:20pm

A march style east swell in late June early july. Looks like it'll linger too.

Sheepdog

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 1:41pm

I very confident that it’ll pump relentlessly till early next week.

Maybe longer if the Doc says I’ve got to stay out of the water for any more time than predicted.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 1:47pm

When are you getting the other eye done, Blowin? I'll book in my leave!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 1:47pm

Told ya ;) Goggles an option haha.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 2:08pm

Amazing*

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 2:42pm

In terms of its timing, genesis and resolution it's not totally dissimilar to the "as good as its gets, as big as it gets" July 2001 East swell.

Main diff. I think, in the final analysis, was that one arrived onto perfectly groomed sandbanks that turned it into an orgy of point break perfection and this one is going to try and break on bare rock and disjointed sand bars.

It'll make for an interesting historical comparison and really highlight the importance of bathymetry.

The Fire's picture
The Fire's picture
The Fire commented Tuesday, 25 Jun 2019 at 7:18pm

Fuck sand, surf reefs!

maaaan

Womble123's picture
Womble123's picture
Womble123 commented Thursday, 27 Jun 2019 at 12:18pm

hard to do that on the goldie.....not impossible, but hard.