Further north from Yamba up into SEQLD, swell will be mostly generated by a broad coverage of ESE winds in the Southern Coral Sea and Northern Tasman.
Our current unstable, stormy pattern is being driven by a peanut-shaped high straddling Tasmania, and multiple troughs of low pressure, stretching from the interior of NSW, out to the Mid North Coast and South Pacific near New Zealand’s North Island.
A small window of cleaner conditions before the winds really pick up later week, generating a sizey, stormy S/SE windswell.
Clean conditions for the beaches with some good swell over the coming days ahead of a poor, windy end to the week.
Current model runs suggest the low is further north, and unlikely to exit the coast until late Sun evening or even early Mon. The fetch is now no longer aimed into the Tasmanian swell window so the swell due Sun/Mon, in effect, has been downgraded to almost nothing.
Lots of surfing days ahead with favourable winds and fun pulses of swell.
Dominant high pressure sits just East of Tasmania by Mon next week, directing a strong E’ly flow, likely enhanced by the remnants of the interior low sitting off the Central/Mid-North NSW Coast.
There's nowhere to recommend for the weekend but we've got some better swells into the middle of next week.
The pattern as we described it on Wed remains fundamentally the same, but the position of the moving parts has shifted so there’s some significant changes to the weekend f/cast.
The weekend still looks poor but we've got better winds due into early next week.
